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TODAY'S FREEBIE PLAYS --
(NFL)
DALLAS COWBOYS (+3) AND
OVER 50.5 DALLAS COWBOYS @ DETROIT LIONS
The simple play might be on the Lions to bounce back from a tough heart-breaking loss last week in this same dome to the Bengals, with a last second FG blowing a game the Lions should have won, 27-24. That fact alone does not bode well for this Lions team today, as this franchise has been absolutely woeful when playing a game the following week, after previously losing by 3-points or less the week before. If that makes sense. So yeah, the Lions are an abysmal 0-5 ML and ATS in their L5 games played after losing the previously week by 3 points or less. It gets even worse when you dig further into the record books, as in that same situation since the 2005-06 season, the Lions are a dreadful 1-10 ML and 2-9 ATS overall. They have won only 1 time since the 2005-06 season in the week following that close of a loss. No reason to think they will do it today against a Cowboys team that has recently been firing on all cylinders, reeling off two straight wins against inter-division rivals Washington and NY, since their thrilling 51-48 loss against the Broncos at home in week 5. They have been money in virtually every way for their backers, cashing money in 6 of the 7 games they have played so far this season with a perfect 3-0 ATS (1-2 ML) record in those 3 games, with their 2 losses coming by a combined 4 points against Kansas City (17-16) and Denver (51-48). The Cowboys are 1-2 ML on the road this season as well, but they did pull off a nice 17-3 win at Philly last week and lost their opener 17-16 at the undefeated KC. Romo has led the Cowboys to 28 points or more in all 3 of his career meetings against the Lions, 34 or more in 2 of them. In his lone game at Ford Field, he led the Cowboys to a stunning 28-27 comeback win, in which the Cowboys twice erased Lions leads of 13 points. Add to that, he has never thrown for less than 300+ yards against this Lions defense in any of those 3 games and he has 7 TD and 4 INT. We like that Romo. Detroit has also been just brutal when playing their final game heading into a bye week, as they have also produced a woeful 1-9 ML and 3-7 ATS record in that situation over the L10 seasons, with the team going 1-3 ML and 2-2 ATS in the 4 games under Schwartz. Expect the fireworks early and often and this one should be the game of the day when all is said and done. Take the DALLAS COWBOYS AND the OVER in Lion country today.......
UNDER 39 CLEVELAND BROWNS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Browns come into KC in trouble, as they have benched their young starter in Weeden, have lost Hoyer to injury and now are relying on their 3rd string QB, Jason Campbell, to get it done against the undefeated Chiefs at Arrowhead. Just two weeks ago, it appeared the Browns may be a nice surprise team for the NFL season, as they reeled off 3 straight wins and were suddenly sitting at 3-2 on the season. Now, two weeks later, they are in the midst of a 2 game skid and are looking for answers they can get after suffering back-to-back, double-digit, blowout losses at GB and against Detroit. This one could and should be over early as the Chiefs defense should do more than enough to keep Campbell and company in check all day today. Sacks should be a plenty as this KC defense is averaging nearly 6 a game and the Browns O line gives up nearly 4 a game. With the aging feet and movement of Campbell, this Chiefs team should have him on the turf often. The Browns most likely won't get past the mid-double-digits in this game, as the Chiefs have yet to allow more than 17 points in any single game this season (holding 4 opponents to 16-17 points respectively) and they are allowing an average slightly more than 11 PPG in their home contests. In fact, Dallas and Houston scored 16 against them there, while they held Oakland and the Giants to a mere 7 points each at Arrowhead. And the Chiefs haven't necessarily been an offensive juggernaut during this 7-0 stretch, as they have only managed to score more than 26 points in a game twice this season. The Under is a perfect 4-0 in their 4 home games this season, and they have scored a mere 17 points in 2 of those games. In fact, the Under is now 9-1 in the L10 KC home games, immediately after scoring an outright win the week before. Even further the Under is now 14-3 in the L17 Kansas City home games against an opponent with a losing record and 21-5 in their L26 home games overall. Not only is this Chiefs team trying to start 8-0 for the first time since 2003, but they also will be playing with a little bit of revenge on their minds, as they were blasted by this same Browns team 30-7 in December of last year. Roll with the UNDER......
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6)
Alright, so let's try this again. The Patriots have been killing us the last 2 weeks. They score with 4 seconds left to bust us on the Saints two weeks ago and spoil our sweep in that game and then they blow an early 21-10 lead last week against the Jets to spoil the sweep party for us in that game as well. So the third time is the charm here today? This team has quite a bit of success against the Dolphins when playing at home and should be able to outlast a Miami team that comes in off back-to-back heart-breaking losses to the Bills (25-23) and the Ravens (26-23) in their previous two games. They have now dropped 3 straight on the ML and ATS and are slowly fading into the obscurity that comes with being a Miami Dolphin. The last time the Patriots dropped an OT game was back during the 2009-2010 season when they lost 20-17 at Denver, and they responded in a major way, by blasting the Titans 59-0 the following week at home. In fact, the Patriots haven't lost a game following an OT game the week before since all the way back in the 2002-03 season, with Brady leading his team to a perfect 6-0 ML and ATS record in the 6 games since in that situation. The Patriots are 8-1 ML and ATS in that same situation since Brady took over as their QB in 2001 season and they are 2-0 ML and ATS following an OT loss in the L10+ seasons. Just to throw out even more amazing stats, New England is 25-4 ML in their L3 seasons in Week 8 or later. They are 9-1 ML in their L10 at home, with a 5-2 ATS record in their L7 there, including a perfect 3-0 ML record this season (2-1 ATS). New England has also won 4 in a row against the Dolphins at home, with 3 of those wins coming by double-digits and 2 of them coming by 28 points or more, much like last season's 28-0 drubbing. Back the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for the easy win.....
THERE YOU HAVE IT!! ANOTHER GREAT START TO YOUR DAY BY THE NUMBER ONE SPORTS HANDICAPPER IN THE GAME TODAY!!
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