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DETROIT TIGERS (-160)
1ST 5 INNINGS: DETROIT TIGERS (-170)
Okay, we are overloading the board on the Tigers today and we hope that the history he has against the Pittsburgh franchise and the history the Tigers have in interleague play will help us to a crazy superfecta of CASHERS in this matinee game. For starters, the Tigers are on the ropes for their first sweep at the hands of a National League team during interleague play since way back in 2004 and something tells me the pitching "duel" of Verlander against Correia is the perfect opportunity for that trend to continue through here after today. The Pirates have now posted a 12-2 record in their L14 at home, while the Tigers have bumbled through the first two games of this series with only 2 combined R, suffering identical 4-1 defeats to already have lost any opportunity to salvage a series win with today's finale. Correia has also been surprisingly well at PNC Park when pitching against AL opponents, posting a perfect 3-0 record with a 2.75 ERA in 3 career interleague starts there. He beat the Tigers in Pittsburgh last season, giving a very quality start and holding the Tigers to 2 ER in 6.2 IP, allowing only 7 H and walking none in the 6-2 Pirates win. He was even better in his lone start at home against an AL foe this season, as he tossed 5.1 innings of scoreless ball in his last outing, a 7-2 win over the Minnesota Twins at PNC. The
Pirates have gone 4-1 in his L5 outings on the mound overall, and he has pitched decently in return, holding a 2-1 record with a 3.52 ERA over those 5 contests. However, Correia was battered around a bit in a loss to the Tigers in Detroit, as he allowed 3 ER, 4 H and an HR in 6 innings of work, in the 4-3 defeat. Cabrera absolutely crushes him, as the Tigers slugger is batting an even .500 against him liftetime, with 8 hits in 16 AB, and going for 2 2B a HR and 6 RBI in that span. Cabrera also broke an 0-for-14 slump with his solo shot to lead off the 7th inning yesterday, so we are expecting a nice game for the slugger. If only Fielder and the rest of the Tigers can follow suit. Fielder has struggled a bit against Correia himself, although
he does have a 2B and a HR with 6 RBI, he also sports a lifetime .227 average against the right-hander in 22 career AB. And between Avila, Peralta, Jackson, Boesch, Raburn, Santiago and Young, they have combined for a career .230 average against Correia, although they do also have a 2B, HR and 3 RBI within that 6-for-22 compilation. But this play is moreso based on
Verlander anyway, as dude has pitched like the legendary Verlander throughout his career against the Pirates. In 2 career starts against the franchise from Pittsburgh, the lefty has dominated with a perfect 2-0 record and a meager 1.13 ERA, allowing 2 ER and striking out 15 kin 16 innings of work against
them. His 15 K total more against them the combined total of all the H (5), BB (6) and R (2) he has allowed against them as well, as he has kept the Pirates in check with a staggering 0.69 WHIP and 0.96 BAA against them in his career. He has never pitched in Pittsburgh before, but he did absolutely humiliate the Pirates in his first outing against them this season, tossing a CG shutout, allowing a mere 1 H, 1 BB and striking out 12 in the 6-0 win. He has pretty much contained the Pirates hitters as expected, with Alvarez (0/3 2 K); Barajas (1/6 2 RBI, BB, K); Barmes (0/3 2K); Jones (1/6 3K); Walker (0/6 2 BB, 2K) combining for a pathetic 2-for-24 (.080) average against Verlander in their careers with 10 K. If you're wondering about McCutchen and McGehee, they are both an identical 2-for-7 against Verlander (.280) and they have combined to do the only damage against him, with a 2B, HR and 2 RBI in those 14 AB. Verlander though has been absolutely deadly against NL opponents
lately as well, as over his L8 starts, he has posted a 7-0 record with a 1.62 ERA while holding his opponents to a .178 average in that span. Over his 4 interleague starts in 2012 he has been equally as efficient, with a 3-0 record in those starts and not allowing more than 2 ER in any of those outings. In fact, he has a 1.50 ERA in those 4 contests versus the NL this season. Since the start of 2011, he is also 2-0 with a 1.95 ERA in his 3 interleague starts on the road. He hasn't allowed more than 2 R in any of those games and has gone at least 8 innings in two of them with a CG, 9-1 win at Colorado in his only road outing versus the NL in 2011. That's about as money as we can get. Detroit is also 5-3 and average nearly 5 RPG in games following a game in which they scored 1 R. Roll with the DETROIT TIGERS to WIN the 1ST 5 INNINGS and to WIN the GAME.......
OVER 9 WASHINGTON NATIONALS @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES (-105)
Both of these teams have struggled to generate any kind of offense in recent games, combining for a mere 7 total R through the first 2 games of this interstate series. The wheels are about to come off today as I fully expect both teams to have the bats going early and often in this one. Believe me, this is a stretch as the Nats are currently sporting a 4-1-1 record for the Under in their L6 games, failing to score more than 3 R in 6 out of their L8 overall. They are averaging a mere 3.3 RPG over their L10 contests overall, while the Orioles offense has been even more stagnant, held to 2 R or less in 6 of their L8 overall and totalling a paltry 15 R in that 8 game span. We are going to need the exact opposite of that if we are to cash in here today. But the bats have to break out at some point, don't they? The Orioles have hit for a combined .165 average over their L5 games should be happy to see Detweiler today, as the young lefty has been ripped in his 3 career outings against the Orioles in the past. He is 0-2 with a bloated 6.75 ERA in those 3 starts, allowing a hefty 12 ER and 19 H in only 16 innings of work. He couldn't get past the 5th inning in his first outing
against Baltimore this season, as he allowed 6 ER, 9 H and 2 critical HR in the 6-5 Nats loss. This will be his first start in place of Wang since being demoted to the bullpen, and the Nationals are hoping that the demotion did him some good, as he has thrown 7.2 innings of hitless ball in his L4 appearances. However, he was demoted to the bullpen because of his horrible struggles as a starter in the first place. He was 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA in his L4 starts prior to the demotion, which was an improvement as he had an 8.16 ERA in his L3 before the demotion. He has made 3 starts on the road after his first start in NY against the Mets to kick off his season, and he has allowed 3 ER in all 3 of those outings, and he is also 0-2 with a much more acceptable 4.96 ERA in those 3 games on the road against ATL, PIT and the LAD. But again, he struggles against Baltimore and perhaps those struggles are no more evident than when he faces Andino (2/5 2B, 2 RBI); Hardy (2/3 3B); Betemit (1/3) and Jones (4/9 2B, HR, 2 RBI) combining to hit for a .450 average with 2 2B, a 3B, a HR and 4 RBI in those 20 career AB. However he has contained Roberts and Wieters, holding them to an 0-for-8 lifetime mark against him with 3 BB and 3 K. Baltimore has had success against LH so far this season, as Hardy, Wieters, Reynolds, Davis, Roberts and Jones are a combined 101-for-298 (.330) against LH this season with 12 HR. Arrieta is on the hill for the O's in today's contest and that is always a good sign when you are leaning towards a play on the Over. He enters this Sunday matinee with a 3-9 record and a 5.84 ERA through 15 starts this season. Arrieta has allowed 4 ER or more in 5 of their L6 games he has started and in 7 of his L9 overall. Not surprisingly then, he has posted a 1-7 record in those L9 starts and has posted a ballooned 7.61 ERA in his L49 innings of work. It doesn't get any better when you look at his L3 and L5 stats either, as he is 1-2 with an even 7.00 ERA over his L3 starts and he is 1-4 with an 8.00 ERA in his L5 games. Arrieta also has struggled against the Nats in his career, posting an 0-1 record with a 7.20 ERA in his 3 career starts and 15 innings of work against the Washington franchise. He has also struggled against the Nats hitters as Ankiel, Harper, Espinosa, Desmond and Zimmerman are a combined 11-for-24 against him in their careers with a 2B, 3B, 2 HR and 6 RBI. Arrieta has also struggled at home this season, posting a 2-5 record with a 6.85 ERA in 8 starts at Camden Yards this season. Six of Arrieta's L8 starts have also had both teams combined for Over 10+ runs. Take the OVER in today's ballgame.........
OVER 9 MINNESOTA TWINS @ CINCINNATI REDS (-115)
The Reds should have enough to get it done here today and after
these two teams have gone to the Under in the first 2 tilts, I have to put the money on the Over here in this one. Leake is coming off one of his strongest starts of the season, in which he lasted 7 innings and gave up 1 R and 6 H while also walking 1 in a 3-2 loss at Cleveland, although he also tossed a career-high tying 114 pitches in that outing, so it will be interesting to see how his young arm responds to the challenge. Home is where you want him to be if you are leaning towards an Over play, as he has allowed 3 ER or more in 6 out of his 7 starts at the Great American Ballpark and his ERA comes in at a hefty 5.80, a full 1.10 R over his ERA on the road. Five out of his L6 starts at home have also totalled 10 R or more, so if history repeats itself, we should be good here. The Reds are also 3-1 in his L4 starts in Cincinnati, with each of those 3 wins coming by at least 3 R or more. Leake has a limited mark of success against the 3 Twins hitters he has faced in his career, with Carroll (1/1 RBI); Doumit (2/12 BB, K) and Willingham (1/4) combining for a mere .230 average against him. The Reds have putting runs across the plate when at home lately as they have scored 61 total R and averaged 5.54 RPG in their 11 home games during the month of June. You would expect the Reds to have a tough test against them with the Twins young lefty, Diamond on the mound, but Cincinnati actually doesn't mind hitting left-handed pitching at all. Frazier, Votto, Hanigan, Stubbs, Bruce and Cozart have combined for an even .300 average in 316 AB against LH pitching this season. In fact, as a team the Reds prefer LH pitching, as they oddly hit for over 20 points higher against lefties (.263) than they do against righties (.241) and score nearly a half a run more per game when facing a southpaw. They also strike out almost 4 times less per 9 innings against lefties, so if they can keep the strikeouts down, they should be alright today. The Reds snapped a 4-game slide with their win yesterday, but they still hold a 7-4 record in their L11 overall
(thanks to their 6-game winning streak immediately before that) and the Reds have also posted a 13-6 record in their L19 games in their home stadium. Nine of those 13 wins there have come in 2 R or more fashion as well, including each of their L4 wins at home. Diamond has been a great find for the Twins in just about every way as he has allowed 0 R in 4 of his 9 starts so far this
season. He comes into today's match-up in the midst of a downer stretch, as he has allowed 4 ER in each of his L2 outings, going 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA in 11.1 innings of work. He also has struggled in his 2 interleague road starts this season, as although he is 1-1 in those contests, he has failed to make it past 5.1 innings in either outing, and has allowed a combined 7 ER in those 2 outings, while allowing 9 ER in total in his other 9 starts this season. That leaves him with a 5.90 ERA in those 2 games. One stat that does give us a little reason for caution though is the way he has dominate during his starts during the day this season. The youngster is a perfect 3-0 with a miniscule 1.03 ERA in those 4 starts, allowing 3 ER in 26.1 IP.
The kid is due for a rough start. I expect him to keep it together through the first few innings, before the floodgates blow open and rip through this total. Take the OVER in today's meeting.......
KANSAS CITY ROYALS (+135)
This one should have a little different feel after the Cardinals have absolutely destroyed their cross-town rivals through the first 2 games of this set. The Royals should be out to at least salvage the final game of this 3-game set, a surprising turn of events after they entered into the series on a 7-2 clip in their L9 games prior. Sanchez is on the hill and gives them reason for optimism as the stud righty has owned the Cardinals in his career, posting a perfect 3-0 record with a tidy 2.78 ERA in 5 career appearance, 4 starts, against them. He must keep the tandem of Beltran, Furcal, Holliday, Molina, Jay, Craig and Freese in check and he has done just that throughout his career, holding them all to a lifetime .220 average in 66 career AB against him - although all of those outings came while he was pitching for the Giants. The Royals are perhaps getting Lynn at the best possible time too, as he comes in off his worst outing of the season, in which he allowed a career-high 5 ER in a shortened 5 innings of work in the 6-3 loss at Detroit. Sanchez is the only Royal to ever get a hit off Lynn though, with a 2B in 2 career AB against him. Go with the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as the nice home underdogs here today......
There you have it!! ANOTHER MONSTER SUNDAY of FREEBIES!!
Best of luck to all today!! Let's get that money!!
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