2011-12 NCAA FB SEASON STATS --
This is our WEEK-BY-WEEK breakdown of all of our NCAA FB plays, so you can see the WINNINGS for yourself firsthand. This is what MEMBERS have been destroying their bookies on during this 2011 FOOTBALL SEASON.
(15-2 / YTD: 161-100-2)
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (+9.5) AND OVER 55
When these two teams squared off earlier this season it was an extremely hard-fought, tightly contested game until Michigan State hit one of the most miraculous plays I have ever witnessed in my entire life. That was amazing! A little less so though, because I believe we were on the Badgers in that game, but still that was amazing! Now they come into this one as 10-point underdogs?! Yes, please! These two teams have played 5 times since 2007 and not a single one of those games was decided by more than 10 points. In fact, 4 of the 5 were decided by 8 or less and 2 of the 5 were decided by 3 or less. Of course none of those games had Wilson behind the center, but in the one game it did - well we all know how that ended up. The home team has gone 7-0 ML in the L7, but MICH ST is 4-2 ATS in the L6 meetings, going 4-1 ATS as the underdog in that span. They come into this one scoring at least 31 points in each of their L4 games, and in 5 of 6, and are currently on an 8-1 ML and 7-2 ATS run over their L9. They have gone 2-1 ATS as a dog in that span and they are 3-1 ATS and ML over their L4 games away from Michigan State. The key to this game will be on the MICH ST defense and how they can contain Ball and the Badgers rushing attack that is putting up a monstrous 247 YPG on the ground over their L3 games. The Spartans rushing D has been their key this season and lately as they have held opponents to under 100 yards rushing over their L3 games, and a hair over 100 YPG on the ground on the season overall. As for the Over, these two teams have combined to go 7-1 for the Over in their L8 meetings, scoring at least 58 points or more in each of their L3 contests and 7 of their L8 meetings between the schools as well. Go with MICHIGAN STATE to COVER the SPREAD here as big underdogs and for this one to go OVER the total......
OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (-3)
Okay so it appears everyone and their momma is on Oklahoma for this one, but with over 2 weeks off for Oklahoma State, I have to say hold on a second. I don't quite understand how a team that is coming off of a bitter loss against IOWA STATE in their last game, and has then had 2 weeks to prepare solely for their in-state rival, wouldn't be a favorite by at least 6 points. Now I know that Oklahoma currently owns an 8-0 ML and 7-1 ATS record in the L8 meetings between the schools, but this Oklahoma State team is unlike any real challenge Oklahoma has faced in previous meetings. The home team is 9-4 in the L13 meetings between the two schools, although that is largely skewed towards Oklahoma as I said, but the favorite is also 7-3 in the L10 meetings. This will only be the second time in the L10 meetings that Oklahoma State will be listed as the favorite, although they were the favorites last season and ended up losing by a TD, 48-41, as -2.5 faves. This season is different though and the Cowboys will be prepared to play today. They come in averaging over 475 YPG passing over their L3 contests and Oklahoma has been giving up a lot of yards in the air on the defensive side of the ball as well, allowing an average of 330 YPG over their L3. Go with the OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS to COVER the SPREAD as small home favorites in this one...........
LSU TIGERS (-13)
Geaux Tigers in this one we say as after we watched the Tigers absolutely dismantle the only team we still thought could actually beat them (besides ALA) last week in their blowout victory of the Razorbacks in which they were immediately down 14-0 and went on a 41-3 scoring spree after that to win the game, 41-17. I just do not think GEO has anything that can compete with this Tigers team in any way, especially when you consider this Bulldog team just beat Kentucky 2 weeks ago by 9 points. GEO may be coming into this one on a 10-game winning streak, but not one single team they have played was in the Top-25. Although Georgia has gone 3-1 ML in the L4 meetings between these two schools and the only LSU victory in that span was by 7 points, these two games have never been so hugely mismatched like they are today. Plus LSU is currently averaging over 300+ yards per game in their rushing attack in their L3 contests!! That's right - 300!! And then you have to deal with their defense on top of that. How is this Georgia team going to respond -- they aren't. They can't. Go with LSU to COVER the SPREAD and win this one huge in the end.........
IOWA STATE CYCLONES (+11) AND OVER 50.5
The Cyclones come into this one off of a disappointing 20-point loss to OKLA last week, 26-6, but they are on an impressive 4-1 ATS streak in their L5 overall. Kansas State has pretty much owned this series in recent years, going 7-3 ML and 6-4 ATS in the L10 meetings between the 2 schools since 2001, although they haven't lost by more than 8 in any of the L3 losses. The Cyclones come into this one averaging 180+ YPG on the ground offensively, while the Wildcats have been allowing just under 180 YPG over their L3 as well. Go with the IOWA STATE CYCLONES plus the points in this one and for this one to go OVER the total.......
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (+13.5) AND OVER 72.5
At first glance, we were thinking we would be all over the HOU Cougars in this one today. But when you look closer, Southern Miss has actually been a tough opponent for the Cougars in the last few seasons. These two schools have squared off 7 times since 2003 and Southern Miss actually owns a 4-3 ML record in that span. They are 3-4 ATS, but the Favorite has gone 6-1 ATS in those L7 games. And when these two schools match-up it has been a tight ballgame for the most part with only 4 of the L10 career meetings decided by more than today's spread and with SO MISS coming out the winner in 3 of those 4 games, including last year's 59-41 victory at home, albeit against a Cougars squad without the help of Keenum in that one. But in Houston's 3 career wins over the L10 games, only one of them has been decided by more than today's spread and that was a 14-point win back in 2006. The only time Keenum has faced them was back in 2009 and he was extremely impressive, tossing for 559 yards and 5 TD passes against only 1 INT. The Cougars won that game and covered the spread (-6.5) in that one, although the 50-43 final score fell well short of today's spread. SO MISS comes into this one perhaps the quietest 9-1 team (over their L10 / 10-2 overall) in the nation and in fact they have only fallen short by 3 points in that span, as there only loss was 34-31 two weeks ago at UAB. They are 7-2-1 ATS in those 10 games as well. But of course this HOU team is a different team in every aspect. They come in averaging 600+ total offensive yards PG over their L3 games and 427 yards passing in the air in that span. Southern Miss is no pushover themselves though and they average 525+ yards of total offense over their L3 themselves. This one will be a shoot-out and it will be close in the end. Southern Mississippi might just have enough here to even pull out the outright upset as Houston tries to remain the only unbeaten besides LSU. Pressure and a quality opponent should finally get the best of these Cougars - but make no mistake, we love Keenum and the Cougars and we are going to miss watching him on Saturdays as we have been able to do the L4 years. As for the Over, well they have scored at least 93 points or more combined in their L2 meetings, including last season's total of 100. Seems like another easy casher as this will be an air assault. But go with SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI to COVER the inflated SPREAD and for this one to go OVER the massive total........
CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (+9.5)
The Huskies come into this one off of an impressive victory last week over Rutgers, 40-22. Cincinnati also picked up an impressive win over Syracuse last week, 30-13, behind a second-string QB playing in his second game, so I have to imagine that CIN will have faith in putting the ball in Munchie's hands again this week. These two schools have met up 6 times since 2005 and although CIN is 4-2 ML in that span, UCONN is actually 3-0 ATS in the L3 and 4-2 in those L6 meetings. The Huskies blew CIN out in last season's match-up, 38-17, and they have either won the game outright or lost by 3 points or less in 4 of the L5 meetings between the schools. However, the home team is actually 6-1 ML in the 7 career meetings between the schools, with CIN going 4-0 ML at home, but only 2-2 ATS there. UCONN should have an easy advantage in the rushing attack, as they come into this game allowing an average of 69 YPG on the ground over their L3. That should neutralize the Bearcats running game, which has averaged nearly 150 YPG over their L3. That will put the ball in the hands of a struggling passing game that has failed to average even 185 YPG in their L3 overall. Roll with the UCONN HUSKIES as a nice sized road dog here.......
UNLV REBELS (+38.5) AND OVER 56.5
The Rebels are brutal and we all know that, but even the mighty Wisconsin Badgers couldn't beat them by 40 points! They have been beaten by 42 and 41 points in each of the L2 meetings between these two schools, but those games had a guy by the name of Dalton at QB for the Frogs. TCU is 8-1 ML and 5-1 ATS in the 9 career meetings between the schools and they have won by 24 or more points in 6 of their L7 wins. But again, UNLV may be horrible, but they have only lost one game this season by more than today's projected spread and that was at WASH ST back in Week 2 for them and after losing to WIS by 34 the week before. This team has played at WIS, at NEV, versus BOISE ST and they weren't defeated by this spread in any of those games. Don't expect it to happen today either. As for the Over, TCU will probably score 40+ in this one and we do expect UNLV to at least scratch out 17-20, so this one should go Over the total as well. Jump on UNLV as a monster underdog and for this one to go OVER the total......
OHIO BOBCATS (+3.5) AND UNDER 71.5
Although we do expect this game to be pretty high-scoring in the end, the number set where it is just seems to be a bit high in actuality. These two teams have matched up against each other 7 times in the history of their schools (although the last time was 2009 and the first time was 1985) they have never managed to total a combined score in the 70's in the history of the match-up. Their last meeting in 2009 was a 38-31 final, which could be about where this one ends tonight as well. Ohio comes into this one off of two straight Unders, with wins over MIA (OH) and BG in games that failed to total in the 60's. In fact, Ohio has only had one game all season long which would have finished over today's total and that was back in early October on the road in Buffalo. Ohio is however rolling lately, as they come into this contest on a 5-0 ML run in their L5, in which their offense has averaged 33 PPG in that span. They have averaged a slightly less 31 PPG in their L3 overall, with the rushing game averaging a staggering 264 YPG in that span. This Huskies team has been a little inconsistent on defense lately, allowing an average of 4.0 YPR over their L3. The Bobcats should be able to get the running game going early and often in this one as well and they are 6-1 ML in their L7 games when they out-gain their opponent on the rushing side of the ball. They are 1-2 ML when they lose the battle in the rushing attack. Northern Illinois has been on fire themselves lately, going a perfect 7-0 ML in their L7 and 8-1 ML in their L9, but they are 0-2 ATS in their L2 and 4-6 ATS in their L10 overall. The Huskies have never lost the rushing battle in any of their L9 games and they come into this averaging an even more amazing 281 YPG in the ground game over their L3 games overall. The Bobcats will give them their first real challenge defensively however, as they are averaging giving up only a measly 80 YPG on the ground over their L3. And if you delve a little close into the statistics, when the Huskies win the ground game battle by less than 100 yards, they are 4-1 ML but only 1-4 ATS and their L3 victories were by 6, 3 and 1 point respectively. On the flip side, in the L6 games the Bobcats either lost the rushing battle or won it by less than 100 yards, they have either won the game outright or lost by 3 points or less in 5 of those 6 games. Ohio is also coming into this one with a few extra days off, having not played since the 22nd of November. Take the OHIO BOBCATS to COVER the SPREAD as the small underdog in this one and for this one to finish UNDER the total........
OVER 66 UCLA BRUINS @ OREGON DUCKS AND UCLA BRUINS (+31.5)
Okay so we may have to be committed to the loony bin for suggesting this play here, but did you happen to see the way the Bruins carried coach Neuheisel off of their practice field yesterday and the teary on-field interview he gave on the practice field afterward. College kids usually eat that stuff up and isn't the whole world going to be on Oregon in this one? Now don't get me wrong, UCLA is not going to win this game by any means. Not even close. But we are thinking somewhere in the 25-28 range, which is an easy casher for us here. Of course we all know by now the Bruins were absolutely annihilated last week by USC, 50-0, in a game they were absolutely destroyed in all facets, allowing 6 TD passes from Barkley and 124 yards rushing from McNeal. And the Bruins were blown out by 47 points in last seasons meeting, 60-13, but other than that, they have never lost a game by more than 19 points in any of the other 9 games between these two schools since 2000. On the flip side, ORE has yet to fail to score less than 34 points in any of their L10 games and in fact have scored 41 or more in 8 of those 10 games. They are actually a very weird 1-0-2 in their L3 games at home, pushing last week vs. ORE ST at -28 and against AZ the home game before at -14. They have combined to total Over today's 66 at a clip of 5-2 in their L7 and 6-3 in their L9 and have combined to hit 70 points in 4 of their L5 overall. Oregon should have an easy night on the ground as this explosive running game has averaged 268 YPG over the L3, while the Bruins have been run over on defense over their L3, allowing over 150+ YPG on the ground. The Bruins have been effective in the rushing game themselves lately though averaging 200 YPG over their L3 in the rushing attack, but the Ducks have been holding opponents to sub-100 numbers over their L3. The Ducks have been an impressive 4-1 ATS at home this season, but surprisingly their blowouts of 30+ points just haven't existed as only 2 of their 12 games have been won by more than today's spread. They are also 5-2 for the Over when the total is listed in the 60's on the season overall. Roll with the OVER in this one and for the UCLA BRUINS to COVER this massive SPREAD........
WEST VIRGINIA (-2) AND UNDER 55.5
The home team is currently 4-0 ML in the L4 meetings between these two schools since 2007, with SO FLA going 2-2 ML in that span and 4-1 ATS in the L5 games played between them. West Virgina has been playing very well again lately, going 2-0 ML in their L2 games overall, 3-1 ML in their L4 and 5-2 ML in their L7. They have 3 impressive road wins over PITT, CIN and Maryland, out of their 4 games on the road this season. They have also gone 3-1 ATS in those 4 games, winning all 3 games by at least 3 points. SO FLA is on the opposite ends of the spectrum lately and come into this one with a lot of question marks on their roster thanks to injury. They are 0-2 ML in their L2 games and 1-6 ML in their L7 overall and haven't picked up a home victory since late September. They are an even worse 1-7 ATS in their L8 games, with none of their L6 losses decided by less than 3 points. As for the Under, I have absolutely no idea how they could have come up with such high of a number for this one. These two teams have never combined to score more than 49 points in any of their previous 6 meetings and have only combined to score more than 41 in 2 of those games. Although West Virginia is 8-2 for the Over in their L10 games overall, they have held both of the L2 games within the 40's for a combined total, hitting 24 points for a high in those 2 games. Roll with WEST VIRGINIA to COVER the tiny SPREAD in this one and for this one to finish well UNDER the total tonight......
WEEK #13: (15-13 / YTD: 146-98-2)
OVER 54.5 SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS @ UNLV REBELS
Again, sticking with what has made us money all season. Roll with the OVER here.......
NC STATE WOLFPACK (-11.5)
Wolfpack have covered today's spread at a clip of 4-1 in the L5 at home this season. Maryland is in a tailspin and is starting their back-up QB after losing their starter to an arm injury during last week's practices. Jump on the WOLFPACK to win this one by at least 14 today........
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (+7.5) AND OVER 44.5
The Buckeyes are 8-2 ATS and an even better 9-1 ML in the L10 meetings between these two schools since 2001. The Underdog is 3-7 ATS in those 10 meetings, but the Buckeyes are 2-1 ATS when listed as the dog in those games. This one should be tight and the Buckeyes might even squeak out a win here. Look for them to rebound after 2 tough losses, and for Robinson to struggle against the Buckeyes as he typically does against them in his career. Roll with THE OHIO STATE as the underdogs here and for this one to go OVER the total.......
OVER 40 RUTGERS KNIGHTS @ CONNECTICUT HUSKIES
This number just seems too low, as these teams have combined to score at least 40 points in 7 of their L9 meetings against each other since 2002. They have played to an Over at a clip of 6-2 in their L8 meetings and both teams have finished with at least 19 points in 8 of the L10 meetings. UCONN has been playing to the Over in the month of November in recent seasons, as they have played to the Over to a record of 9-3 in their L12 November games. CONN has also played to the Over to the tune of 5-1 in their L6 games overall, while Rutgers has actually been the exact opposite, going 7-1 for the Under in their L8. But they have scored at least 19 points in 9 of their L10 games in 2011 and have allowed at least 16 in 7 of those 10 games. UCONN should have enough to get at least 2 or 3 TD's and a FG or three on the board in this one and Rutgers will surely match up with them there. Take the OVER in this match-up......
OVER 52.5 MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS @ NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS AND NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (+6)
Underdog is 7-2 in the L9 meetings between the two teams, with Northwestern going 5-2 ATS, despite a 2-5 ML record in their L7. Northwestern is 3-1 ATS and 4-0 ML in their L4 games in 2011, although that competition was inferior to Michigan State, besides Nebraska. This one should be a shootout Take the OVER here and also roll with NORTHWESTERN to COVER the SPREAD as a nice little dog at home......
MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (+11) AND OVER 43
Gophers have been money for us this season, and they should hang tough in this one as Minnesota is 7-3 ATS and ML in the L10 meetings, including a 4-2 ATS and ML record in the L6 match-ups on their home turf. They have also played to Over today's total at a clip of 6-0 in the L6 meetings, and have combined to score 139 points in the L2 meetings. Take the GOPHERS to COVER the SPREAD and for this one to go OVER the total.......
OVER 64 OREGON STATE BEAVERS @ OREGON DUCKS
This in-state rivalry has gone 9-1 for the OVER in the L10 meetings and we fully expect Oregon to respond with a ton of points today. This one may be close for a bit, but Oregon should roll to the blowout, but the huge spread prevents us from making a play there. But the Over should be easy money as Oregon should score 45+ themselves here. Take the OVER in today's meeting......
IOWA STATE CYCLONES (+28.5)
Okay, so Iowa State is coming in off the monster upset win over OKLA ST last week, and they even have an extra day of rest, and they are more than 4 TD underdogs in this one. Something smells a little fishy here, but I don't want to miss out on a chance to pick up an easy casher here as this just seems like way too wacky of a spread. Take IOWA STATE to COVER this massive SPREAD here......
OVER 57 MISSOURI TIGERS @ KANSAS JAYHAWKS
Kansas is a huge dog here, but they may not be that bad of a play actually as they have played tough at home against some tough teams. They lost to Baylor by one in their last game there two weeks ago, 31-30. They have combined to hit Over 60 points in every game at home so far this season, while Missouri has combined to go Over 60 points in all but one road game this season. Seems like an easy spot to pick the over here. Score on this one to roll OVER the total....
OVER 47 ALABAMA TIDE @ AUBURN TIGERS
Another in-state rivalry that should be full of points. 'Bama should have no trouble scoring against this Auburn defense that gave up 45 to Georgia a few weeks ago. Bama has also scored 34+ in 8 of their L10 games overall, although they have only done it once in the L3 games. Take the OVER in this one as well..........
SYRACUSE ORANGE (+2)
This will be the 2nd start for Cincy's QB, Lugaux, and he struggled majorly last week, leading his team to merely a FG against Rutgers and they should be again over-matched against a tough Syracuse team to beat - especially at home - and a team that is looking to rebound off of 3 straight losses. Jump on SYRACUSE as a small home underdog in this one......
TEXAS LONGHORNS (+8.5) AND OVER 53
This is the final showdown between these two rivals in a historic battle that has seen Texas with a commanding lead in the series overall, 75-37-5 in the 117 career meetings between the two schools. There will be a lot of emotion rolling in this game, and that should help both keep this game close and put points on the board. Texas has struggled greatly to put points on the board in the L2 games, scoring 18 total points in those 2 losses to KANSAS ST (13) and at MISSOURI (5). They are currently 2-1 ATS and ML on the road this season, although they are 0-1 ATS when listed as a road dog. Texas A&M has been abysmal ATS this season, going 2-8 ATS in their L10 games, including 1-7 ATS in their L8 when listed as the favorite. They are 0-4 ATS when listed as a favorite of less than 10 points. They are also 2-3 ATS in their L5 at home. These two have split the L6 meetings on the ML, but Texas is 7-3 ML in the L10 meetings. ATS is a different story though as A&M is 5-1 ATS in the L6 meetings, although in 4 of those 5 games they were the underdog. They did win as a -3 point favorite in 2010 however, picking up a 24-17 win at Texas. The Longhorns also hold a 4-1 ML edge when playing at A&M, but the Aggies are actually 4-1 ATS in those 5 games. But this spread just seems too high today. The Longhorn should be able to stay within a TD tonight. Roll with the TEXAS LONGHORNS to COVER this giant SPREAD and for this one to easily go OVER today's total........
MIAMI, OHIO REDHAWKS (+9) AND OVER 55
Alright, so we are back to kick off another week of NCAA FB and we look to kick it off in big fashion again tonight. Again, as the season draws closer to an end, these weekday games are always tougher to cap as the odds-makers have a better handle on teams and spreads at this point in the season. And it appears that everyone is currently rolling with Ohio in this one. Not so fast we say though, as although Ohio has dominated this series in recent years, going 5-0 ATS and ML in the L5 meetings since 2006 - Miami does present some value here as such a big dog. Ohio has had an average MOV of 15+ points in their L5 meetings, and they come into this game also on a nice little streak as they have gone 4-0 ML and 3-1 ATS in their L4 games played this season. They have scored at least 29 PPG in each of those L4 games, although two of those games ended up extremely close at the end, including last week's 1-point victory over BG and a home victory against TEM 3 weeks ago, 35-31. Ohio is 5-6 ATS in 2011, and they are 4-5 ATS when listed as a favorite, but they have gone 2-4 ATS in their L6 in that position, and they are 0-3 ATS as a favorite of -8 points or more. Miami is 6-5 ATS on the season and 2-2 ATS when underdogs by more than 5 points. They do come into this one 1-4 ML in their 5 road games of 2011, but they are 3-2 ATS on the road so far and have only had 1 game in their L4 road games that was decided by more than 6 points. Roll with MIAMI, OHIO to COVER as the Underdog in this one and for yet another MAC game to go OVER tonight's total........
LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (+3.5)
Louisville comes into this one on a bit of a roll as they have gone 4-1 ML in their L5 games and 6-1 ATS in their L7 overall. They are 7-3 ATS in 2011 and have been a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road so far. They were also underdogs in all 5 of those road games, but the spread was in the double-digits for 3 of those games. They are coming in off of 2 straight road wins as underdogs at CONN and W VIRG. South Florida lost a barn-burner at home to Miami last week, 6-3, and come into this one with a ton of injuries expected to effect the outcome as well today. Jump on LOUISVILLE to COVER the SPREAD in this early morning match-up.......
IOWA HAWKEYES (+9.5) AND OVER 53
Okay so Nebraska should win this game fairly easily, but the spread here is just too far out of whack it seems to not jump on the Hawkeyes. Iowa has been decent this season, 6-3 ML and 5-4 ATS in their L9 games on the season. They appear disappointing on the road, going 1-3 ATS and ML when away from the corn state, but only one of those road losses was by more than today's spread - when they lost by 10 at Penn State, 13-3. They also have a disappointing 1-point loss at MINN, 22-21, and what appear much more impressive now, a 3-point loss at Iowa St, 44-41, in OT. Nebraska is 2-4 ATS when listed as a favorite this high, but their only covers were against Wyoming and Minnesota in that capacity. At home they are 4-1 ML in their L5, but they are a disappointing 1-4 ATS in those games, going 0-4 as a favorite of anything more than 5 points. Iowa is 7-3 for the Over in their L10 games, while Nebraska has split at 5-5, but they have combined to score at least 53 points at a clip of 3-1-1 in those 5 home games, with both teams scoring at least 25 points in 4 of those 5 home games as well. Roll with the IOWA HAWKEYES as a nice dog and for this one to easily go OVER the total today........
TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE (+3) AND OVER 76
This is going to be the biggest test of the season for Houston and their super-stud QB, Keenum, and if history suggests anything, it's that Tulsa will hang close in this one. Tulsa is 3-1 ATS and 2-2 ML in the L4 meetings between the two teams, including last season's 28-25 victory. That game however, did not feature Keenum as he was out with injury, but they did hang tough against him the last time they squared off, losing by 1 in a 46-45 contest in 2009. Keenum is amazing against this Tulsa D, having thrown for over 960+ yards and 9 TD versus 0 INT in his L2 starts against them. In those L2 games, he has led the Cougars to outscoring the Hurricane by a score of 116-75. This is the last game of the season for both these teams and presents a critical match-up. Houston needs this win desperately to maintain any sense of respect from the BCS, while Tulsa can make a claim that they have had a tremendous season with a win here. They are 8-3 ML on the season, with their only losses coming to BOISE ST, OKLA ST and OKLA, respectively. They are 7-0 ML in their L7 and 6-2 ATS in their L8 games this season. They have put at least 37 points on the board in 6 of their L7 themselves. Take TULSA to pull off the mild shocker at home here and for this one to go OVER this massive total........
WEEK #12: (18-9 / YTD: 131-85-2)
This week started out good and ended great as we went 8-5 ATS during the weekday action and had a MONSTER 10-4 ATS SATURDAY!! We continue to DESTROY NCAA FB this season and once again ANOTHER WEEK WHERE WE MORE THAN QUADRUPLED OUR MEMBERS BANKROLL!!
USC TROJANS (+15) AND OVER 68.5
This just seems like a good spot for a letdown for Oregon in this one - at least ATS. Over two TD's just seems like too much of a difference for this one and the Trojans offense should do enough here to hang within this one throughout, much like the Stanford game a few weeks ago. If nothing else, one of these two teams should hit at least 40 points and should make this an easy cover for the Over as well. Go with the USC TROJANS and for this one to go OVER..............
ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (-13.5) AND OVER 52.5
Arkansas has been money in this match-up in recent years, going 9-1 on the ML in the L10 meetings since 2001. Although they are only 5-5 ATS in that span, they are 15-5 ATS in the L2 regular seasons overall, including this season's 6-4 ATS mark. They are 4-0 ATS and ML in the L4 meetings in ARK, with all 4 of those games pitting Arkansas as a double-digit favorite and them winning by 14+ points or more in each meeting. On the 2011 season, Arkansas has covered today's spread at a clip of 4-2 on the season, including a 4-2 ATS record when a double-digit fave. As far as today's over, Arkansas is coming in off two straight games with their offense clicking on all cylindars, scoring 42+ PPG in each of those contests. They should be able to control this one on the ground all day, as MISS ST averages a horrendous 200+ YPG defensively in the run game, which also should allow a lot of play action passes which should lead to some quick easy scores for Arkansas and an inflated score in this one. The home team is also 8-1 ATS in the L9 meetings overall and the Over is 12-4 in Arkansas' L16 conference games overall. Arkansas is also 13-4 ATS in their L17 conference games. Jump all over ARKANSAS to COVER the SPREAD at home and for this one to easily go OVER the total........
ARIZONA WILDCATS (+11)
KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (+8) AND OVER 53.5
They are 3-0 ATS and ML in the L3 match-ups between these two teams. They are an even better 4-0 ATS in the L4 and 6-1 ATS in the 7 career meetings overall between these two teams. And Kansas State has been rolling all season long, going 8-2 ATS and ML in their 10 games on the season. They are also 4-0 ATS and 3-1 ML in their 4 road games on the season, with games at OK ST, MIAMI FLA, and TX TECH. These two teams have combined to go Over today's total in each of the L3 meetings, and KAN ST is 5-0 for the Over in their L5 and 7-1 in their L8. They have had one team score at least 50 points in each of their L4 games. Jump on KANSAS STATE to COVER the SPREAD here and for this one to go OVER today's total.......
VANDERBILT COMMODORES (-1.5)
The only thing that cautions us here is the fact that Vandy is 1-9 ML in the L10 meetings with TENN since 2001, although they are 4-3 ATS in the L7 meetings. But none of those teams had a QB named Rodgers on it, and although this isn't the SB winning brother, this one has done just fine for himself since stepping into the starter's role a few weeks back. Vandy is 5-0 ATS in their L5 games in 2011 and 8-2 ATS overall on the season so far. Tennessee on the other hand has been in absolute tailspin as of late, going 1-5 ATS and ML in their L6 games overall, averaging under 10 PPG in that span. Bray is supposed to be back in the lineup for TENN in this one, but I don't think it is going to be enough to earn the victory against this rejuvenated Vandy offense and their defense which is allowing 100 YPG on the ground defensively in their L3 games overall. Go with VANDERBILT to WIN today's meeting...........
OVER 51 NEBRASKA HUSKERS @ MICHIGAN WOLVERINES AND MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (-3.5)
Not much history to go off of with this one, as these two historic colleges have only squared off twice in their history with the last meeting coming back in 2005. Nebraska is coming in off an emotional victory in Penn State, in which they clung to life and barely hung on at the end to escape with a FG victory in the first game for the Nittany Lions without their legendary coach. The Huskers have transitioned nicely into their first season within the Big Ten Conference, as they are having an excellent season and come into this game 8-2 ML in 2011, although they have been a much more disappointing 3-6-1 ATS on the season. They also are currently 2-3-1 ATS in games within their new conference, but to give them credit, they are 4-2 ML. So far they have played well on the road, going 3-1 ML and 2-1-1 ATS, averaging 28 PPG in those 4 contests, although they scored 79 points in their 2 road meetings against cupcakes Minnesota and Wyoming. In their two tough road match-ups against Wisconsin and Penn State, they scored 17 points in each game and went 0-1-1 ATS and 1-1 ML in those 2 games. Michigan on the other hand comes into this game off of a huge 17 point victory over Illinois in their house, in which they were an underdog by 1 point. They too have been soaring all season, going 8-2 ML and 7-3 ATS in 2011, with a home record of 5-1 ATS and 6-0 ML in Ann Arbor. And they have been impressive in those home games, averaging 37 PPG with an average MOV of 26 points. They have only had one home game decided by less than 21 points, and that was back in Week 2 against Notre Dame. Although we certainly don't expect this one to be a blowout, we do expect Michigan to cover this one by more than a FG. And they have scored at least 28 points in every home game this season and 31+ in 5 of those 6 games and we expect much the same in this one. Nebraska should also be able to keep up so this total should be rolled Over by the beginning of the 4th quarter. Take the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES to COVER the SPREAD and for this one to go OVER the total.......
MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (+16)
Alright, so again we find ourselves backing the Gophers due a slightly favorable number, and so far they have gone 2-0 ATS (if you got MINN +29.5 where it ended last week) for us the L2 times we have taken them, last week covering by a half point on the spread against Wisconsin. But today they again seem to pose some value as they have played particularly well against Northwestern in recent years, going 5-1 ATS and 3-3 ML in the L6 meetings since 2003. The Gophers also hold a 7-3 ATS advantage in the 10 meetings between the 2 schools since 1999, although they have split the ML going 5-5 in that span. However, in those 10 meetings since 1999, the only blowout victories in this match-up have come by the Gophers. In the 5 victories the Gophers have racked up in the series, they have won by an average MOV of 17 PPG. On the flip side, the games in which Northwestern has emerged victorious have been extremely close, with an average MOV of 4 PPG in those contests, and they haven't won any of those meetings by more than 11 points, and 4 of them have been by 6 points or less. Even better, the Gophers have gone 5-0 ATS and 3-2 ML in the L5 meetings between them at Northwestern, with their only losses by 1 point and 6 points respectively. The road team is also 10-2 ATS in the L12 match-ups as well. Roll with the GOLDEN GOPHERS to COVER the slightly inflated SPREAD in this one........
OVER 53 INDIANA HOOSIERS @ MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
This one should be well over this total if history is any indication here. These two teams have squared off 4 times since 2005 and have easily played over today's total at a clip of 4-0 in those 4 games, with every game having at least one team put 42 points on the board themselves. In fact, 7 of their L9 meetings have gone over today's total, and they have combined to score at least 50 points in 8 of those games, with ever single game having at least one team score 30+ points alone. Indiana has currently played to the Over at a clip of 5-0 in their L5 games in 2011, with every one of those games going over today's total. In fact, they are 7-3 for the Over this season and 3-1 for the Over on the road so far, including 3-0 in their L3 road games. Michigan State has been playing to the Over as well recently, going 3-1 in their L4 games, as well as 3-1 for the Over in their L4 at home. The Spartans have also gone 7-2 for the Over in their L9 November games. Oh yeah, Indiana is allowing 46 PPG in their L3 overall. Go with the OVER in this one........
WISCONSIN BADGERS (-14.5) AND OVER 51
Another week of NCAA FB and another week rolling with the Badgers who have been money this season going 6-3-1 ATS in 2011, although they are 1-3 ATS in their L4 overall. But the Badgers have been unbelievable pretty much all season long, scoring at least 42 points in 7 of their 10 games this season, and at least 29 in all 10 games. They are only 1-2 ML and 0-3 ATS on the road in 2011, but that might be a bit misleading as their 2 losses were those last second heart-breakers at Michigan State and Ohio State, and their only other loss on the spread by a half a point in that Gophers game last week - they were favored by 29.5 and won 42-13. They are currently 5-1-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season, and have scored at least 35 points in each of those games, and 49+ points in 6 of those games. When they are favored by double-digits, their average MOV is nearly 41 PPG in those 7 contests. Although Illinois got off to a great start in 2011, going 6-0 ML through their first 6 games, they have struggled mightily since then, going 0-4 ML and 1-3 ATS in their L4 games since. However, they have only dropped one game by more than today's spread, but it came last week against Michigan at home, 31-14, a game they were favored by 1 point in. They are 0-4 ATS in their L4 home games and 2-5 ATS at home on the season overall. Wisconsin is 5-1 ML in the L6 meetings between the two schools since 2003, although Illinois has been a very productive 3-1 ATS in the L4 match-ups. The Badgers are averaging 44 PPG in their L3 overall, while the Illini are only mustering a meager 11 in that span. We expect them to score more than 11 in this one, but this one should be ugly in a hurry in the Badgers favor. Take WISCONSIN to COVER the SPREAD and for this one to go OVER the tiny total.......
BALL STATE (+17) AND OVER 71
Another Tuesday night of football and another game with No Illinois on the board. This game seems to scream for the Over, despite the very high total number, as these two teams come into the game averaging over 65+ points in their L3 games each, with Ball State averaging a total of 67 in their L3, and No Ill averaging a total of 80 in their L3 respectively. These two teams combined for 80 points in last season's contest at Ball State, with No Illinois emerging the victor by a score of 59-21. No Illinois has scored at least 40+ points in 8 of their 10 games this season, and has put 45+ on the board in 5 of them. They have gone 6-1 ML in their L7 games, scoring 40+ points in 6 of them. Although they are 4-1 ATS in their L5, they have been inconsistent ATS this season and are only 5-5 on the season. They are also 1-2 ATS when the spread is -10.5 or more. On the flip side, Ball State is 4-0 ATS and 3-1 ML in their L4 games, including a 3-0 ATS and 2-1 ML record in that span on the road. On the road in 2011, they are currently 4-2 ATS and 3-3 ML in 6 games away from home. They have been a double-digit dog 4 times this season, and have gone 2-2 ATS in those games, with both losses coming as 20+ point underdogs at Oklahoma and So Fla. When the spread is double-digits, but below 20+ points, they are 2-0 ML and 2-0 ATS in 2011. Go with BALL STATE to COVER the huge SPREAD and for this one to go OVER the massive total.......
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+15.5) AND OVER 72
IOWA STATE (+27.5)
NORTH CAROLINA (+10) AND UNDER 48.5
MEMPHIS (+12) AND UNDER 50.5
OHIO BOBCATS (-7) AND OVER 59
Ohio has been successful in recent meetings between these two clubs and the way Bowling Green ended out last week's contest, this one should be an easy casher for us again tonight. Although BG is 7-3 ATS in the L10 meetings overall, Ohio has been dominant in recent years, going 3-1 ATS and ML in the L4 meetings since 2007. Last season, they came into this game 8 point favorites and blew out BG by a score of 49-25. These teams have also played to the Over in 3 of those 4 meetings, scoring over a total of 65 in those 3 games, and Over 70+ in 2 of them. On the 2011 season, Ohio comes in pretty hot lately, going 3-0 ATS and ML in their L3 games overall and they have played well Over today's total at a clip of 4-1 in their L5 games. BG has been going backwards all season long, as they are 1-5 ML and 2-4 ATS in their L6 games, including 1-3 ML and 2-2 ATS at home in their L4 games there. In their L5 losses, they have only covered today's spread once (and it was a push), otherwise they have been outscored by 12+ points or more. The MAC conference has been an Over waiting to happen this season, especially during the week as in the 8 weekday MAC games in November, the two teams have combined to score an average of almost 78 PPG and have gone Over the total at a clip of 6-2 in the L8. Take OHIO to COVER the SPREAD in this one and for this one to go OVER tonight's total.......
MIAMI, OHIO (-1.5) AND UNDER 60
This game is expected to be cold and in the 30's and it should hold the scoring down in our opinion. Miami, Ohio is also 3-1-1 in the L5 meetings, with a 3-0 ATS and 2-1 ML record at home in their L3 meetings there. They have gone 22-5-1 in the previous 28 meetings between these 2 teams in Ohio. Western Michigan is coming off a 63-60 loss against Toledo in which the offenses were never stopped once it seemed, but they are only 3-3 ATS and 1-5 ML in their 6 games on the road so far in 2011. Miami has been playing well in recent weeks, going 5-1 ATS and 4-2 ML in their L6 games, including 3-0 ATS and ML in their L3 at home. Although they have scored at least 35 points in those L3 home games, they have been allowing an average of 14 PPG on defense. Go with MIAMI OHIO to COVER the SPREAD and for this one to stay UNDER the slightly inflated total........
WEEK #11: (11-15 / YTD: 113-76-2)
Alright, so we had our first losing week in NCAA FB in quite a while, as we just couldn't get anything going consistently this week. But we did still pick up 10 CASHERS on the week and we are still hitting just under 65% for the season!!
TEXAS LONGHORNS (-1.5) AND OVER 58
Texas has owned Missouri in recent meetings and they have been clicking on all cylindars in recent weeks, which makes them a very credible threat to pull off an easy road victory in this one. To begin with, the Longhorns are 9-1 ML in the L10 meetings, which is great for the spread here, and have won these meetings by an average MOV of nearly 21 PPG. They are 5-0 ML and 4-1 ATS in the L5 meetings with an average MOV of 26 PPG in those victories. And the Longhorns have been lights out on the road so far in 2011, as they enter this game 2-0 ATS and ML in their 2 games away from Texas this season and have won those 2 games in blowout fashion - winning by 23 at IOWA ST and 29 at UCLA. And despite back-to-back home losses to OKLA ST and OKLA, the Longhorns enter this game 6-2 ML and 5-3 ATS in their 8 games this season. Not counting the two losses, they are 6-0 ML and 5-1 ATS against everyone not from Oklahoma. And also not counting those two losses, they have played one other tight game against BYU in which they won by, but other than that, their other 5 W's this season were won by at least 23 points in the end. But Missouri hasn't exactly been a slouch lately, as they too are having a pretty good season despite what expectations were after losing their star QB from last season. But they are a disappointing 4-5 ML in 2011 and a little better ATS at 5-4. At home, they have played their best, but it shouldn't be enough here. They are currently 3-1 ML and 2-2 ATS at home, with an impressive 35 point W over IOWA ST in the mix. But still, history is just too much to go against here. As far as the OVER goes in this one, these two teams have played to Over today's total at a clip of 2-1 in the L3 meetings and 4-3 in the L7. In 2011 the Longhorns have been involved in some high scoring affairs too, as they have had one team score at least 34 or more points in each of their L6 games and have had one team score at least 34 points in 7 of their 8 games overall in 2011. They are 4-1-1 in the L6 for the OVER and are averaging a hair over 40 PPG in their L3. On the other side, Missouri has played to the Over at a clip of 6-2 in their L8 games and have had one team score at least 37 points in their games at a clip of 7-1 in the L8. They have also gone over today's total to a record of 7-1 in their L8 games as well. Take the TEXAS LONGHORNS to COVER the less than 2 point spread in this one and for this one to fly OVER the total.............
WYOMING COWBOYS (+16.5)
We love it when we see a match-up like this with a spread so far out of whack. This one should be way out of whack in our favor today. Wyoming comes into this game 7-3 ATS in the L10 meetings, despite the fact that AF has gone 7-3 ML in that span. But these two teams have played 10 times since 2001 and boy do they like to play them close. In all 7 of the Air Force victories, the MOV has been an average of just under 10 points a game. In fact, in those 7 victories, AF has only covered today's spread 1 time. The Cowboys are 1-3 ML in the L4 at Air Force, but they have not lost a game by more than 6 points in those 4 games there. And Wyoming has been a tough team to beat in 2011, doing it silently all year long. They are 5-3 ATS and ML on the season, with 2 of their losses coming to TCU and NEB. The road team is also 7-3 ATS in the L10 meetings as well. Take WYOMING to easily cover this gigantic spread here........
OVER 63.5 WISCONSIN BADGERS @ MINNESOTA GOPHERS AND MINNESOTA GOPHERS (+29.5)
Could it be true? Are we really riding with the Gophers two weeks in a row as a nearly 4 TD underdog? The Over should be an absolute lock in this one as these two teams have gone 11-0 for the Over in their L11 meetings, and in their 10 games since 2001, have played to Over today's total at a clip of 3-1 in their L4 meetings and 7-3 in those 10 meetings overall. And as we know from last week, Wisconsin is an Over-cashing machine, as they have scored at least 48 points in 6 of their 9 games in 2011 and have scored at least 29 in every game overall. They are 6-0 for the Over in their L6 contests as well. On the other sidelines, the Gophers have also been involved in an Over at a record of 5-2 in their L7 and they have allowed at least 31 points on defense in 5 of their L6 games in 2011. A few trends to also note: the Badgers are 13-3 for the Over in their L16 November games, while the Gophers are 16-6-1 for the Over in their L23 conference battles. The Gophers also seem to be the play here as they are 3-0 ATS in the 3 meetings since 2001 in which they were double-digit underdogs, and this is by far the biggest spread in the L10 years between the two teams. In fact, 2-of-the-L3 meetings were decided by a FG and 3-of-the-L4 have been decided by a TD or less. Even further, Wisconsin has only had one game since 2001 in this match-up in which they won by more than 18 points, but they did also manage to cover today's spread in that one. But that was back in 2006. In Minnesota the Gophers are 2-3 ML and ATS and they haven't lost by more than a TD there to Wisconsin in any of those games. Take the OVER 63.5 in this one AND the GOLDEN GOPHERS to COVER this massive SPREAD.......
MIAMI (FLA) HURRICANES (+9.5)
Okay, so this game brings back some horrible memories from last season, as we had a perfect day on the line only to be wiped away with the blowout loss by Miami in this rivalry. And we are back to make this play again, on much the same grounds. These two teams have played 10 times since 2002, and last year's blowout win for FSU was the first time in 9 games that this game was decided by more than 12 points. In fact, without the 2010 loss, the Hurricanes would have covered today's spread at a clip of 9-0 in the previous 9 games. Even further, in those 9 games, Miami has either won the game outright or lost by 3 points at the most in every other contest. And if you look at their previous results this season, I like the play even more, as in the Hurricanes 4 losses this season have been by 8 points or less, as they have lost by 3, 4, 7 and 8 points respectively. They are also 2-0 ATS as an underdog in their L2 such situations this season. And although Miami is 3-2 ML, they are 4-1 ATS in their L5 games overall. Florida State is also rolling however, as they come into this game 4-0 ATS and ML in their L4 games in 2011 and are 4-1 ML and 3-2 ATS in their 5 home games so far. I say go with the history here and roll with the HURRICANES to cover the nice underdog line in this one.........
OVER 75 BAYLOR BEARS @ KANSAS JAYHAWKS
Although these two teams have played 9 times in their history, and they have only come close to today's total one time back in 2006, however there is still good reason to think this one should still fly way over the total here today. In fact, Baylor might even put up 60 points themselves in this one. Baylor has had their games hit Over today's total at a clip of 4-0 in their L4 and 6-2 in their 8 games so far this season. One team has scored at least 42 points in 7 of their 8 games this season, and they have had one team score 48 or more in 6 of their 8 games. Kansas has been awful all season long as well, allowing their opponents to score at least 42 points in 7 of their L8 games also. They have even had three games in which they allowed 59 points (KAN ST), 70 points (OKLA ST), and 66 points (GA TECH). They have also gone Over today's total at a clip of 6-3 in their 9 games this season as well. Take the OVER and hope Baylor puts up 60+ themselves in this game........
TEXAS CHRISTIAN HORNED FROGS (+16)
These two teams have matched up 3 times in the history of their schools and have played 3 tightly contested games, with 2 of them ending well below today's total. Boise State has gone 2-1 with victories of 7 and 3 points in those two games, and TCU has gone 1-2 with a 1 point victory. The two Unders were 17-10 and 17-16 scores respectively, while the Over was a 34-31 final score. I just don't see the major mismatch here that the bookies do and I say jump on TCU to cover the 2 TD+ spread..........
OVER 48.5 MICHIGAN WOLVERINES @ ILLINOIS ILLINI
These two teams combined for 132 points in last season's meeting and have actually been easy money for the Over in the L10 meetings between them since 1999. They have played to Over today's total at a clip of 9-1 in their L10 meetings overall, with the only game that fell short of the number ending in at 44 for a final. That was the only game between them in which one team didn't score at least 30 points and they have had at least one team score 35 points in 8 of their L10 meetings overall. In 2011, both of these teams have played to identical outcomes in terms of the Over/Under in their games. They are both 6-3 for the Under in their 9 games, including 3-0 for the Under in their L3. Take the Over in this one........
KANSAS STATE (+6) AND OVER 65
Again, how in the world is KAN ST a dog here?? They are playing at home, are currently 7-1 ATS in their L8 games, and are coming in off two losses against OKLA ST and OKLA, and did we mention they are playing at home?? Kansas State is 2-0 ML in the L2 and 3-0 ATS in the L3 meetings between these two teams, while Texas A&M is 0-2 ML and 0-3 ATS in the same span. Kansas State is also 4-1 ML and 3-2 ATS in their 5 home games in 2011, with their only loss coming to that pesky OKLA team. They have also managed impressive victories over Baylor and Missouri at home as well. As far as the Over play, these two teams have played to Over today's total at a clip of 3-1 in the L4 meetings. On the 2011 season, Texas A&M has played to Over today's total at a clip of 5-1 in the L6 games, while the Wildcats have also played Over today's total at a clip of 5-1 in their L6 as well. Jump on KANSAS STATE as a home dog and take the OVER here...........
UNDER 54 DUKE BLUE DEVILS @ VIRGINIA CAVALIERS
There are several trends in play here for the Under and this one does seem to be wrongly tilted towards to high of a number for these two teams. Although these two teams combined to score 103 points in Duke's 55-48 victory last season, they have played each other 10 times since 2001 and that is the only time in that span they have ever come close to going over today's total. And both of these teams have been playing towards the Under in their games so far in 2011, as Duke enters this game 6-2-1 for the Under in their 9 games and Virginia is 7-2 for the Under in their 9 games in 2011. And in all games played for these two teams with a total set in the 50's in 2011, they are 8-3-1 for the Under in those 11 games combined. In conference play, the Under is currently 7-1 in Duke's L8 games and 36-16-3 in the L55 conference games for Virginia. The Under is also 9-2-1 in Duke's L12 games overall and both of these teams play to the Under when they play on grass, as Duke is 8-2 for the Under in their L10 games played on it and Virginia has played to the Under at a clip of 8-1 in their L9 on grass. Go with the UNDER in this meeting.........
FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS (-7)
Fresno State has absolutely dominated this series in every way. They are 10-0 ML and 6-4 ATS in the L10 meetings, including 6-0 ML since 2005 with an average MOV of 17 points. Since 2009, they are 2-0 ATS and ML and have won by 23 and 31 points respectively. The 6-4 ATS record for Fresno in this series may be a bit of an abomination as well, as NM ST has been an underdog of at least 13.5 points in each of the L9 games. Roll with FRESNO STATE to COVER the SPREAD here.........
SYRACUSE ORANGE (+3) AND UNDER 52.5
This play should be a lock, as although the Orange have stumbled recently, so has SO FLA, but the Orange have been incredibly difficult to beat at home this season. Although the Orange are currently on a 2 game skid overall, they are 4-1 ML and 3-2 ATS in home games so far in 2011. And 3 of those home victories were against what could be considered 3 very decent teams at the very least, with a blowout victory over WV in their last home game, 49-23, a win over Toledo there 33-30, and a win over Wake Forest, 36-29. In fact their only loss at home was against a tough Rutgers squad and that was by a FG. Despite the struggles in their L2 games, they have still put up decent stats in their L3 games, as they have averaged 26 PPG on offense, while allowing just under 27 PPG on defense in that span. SO FLA comes in also struggling as they are 0-4 ML in their L4 games and 0-5 ATS in their L5. On the road, they have equally struggled so far in 2011, as they are both 1-3 ATS and ML on the road this season, with their only win and cover in that situation coming all the way back in week 1 against Notre Dame. So Fla also comes into this one with quite a few injuries in question tonight that should greatly hinder them in this one and leave them short-handed on offensive and defensive play-makers in this one. Jump on the SYRACUSE ORANGE as a 10-UNIT PLAY and also take the UNDER in this one for 5 UNITS..........
CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS (+7) AND OVER 58
The Chippewas come into this game an abysmal 1-9 ATS on the season so far and 3-7 ML in 2011. They are much more productive at home, going 2-1 ML and their lone win ATS did come in their own home confines. Further, in their only L at home, it was by 7 points then as well. They have been playing better as of late, despite what their record would suggest, as their biggest loss in the L3 losses in 2011 was only by 7 points as well and they won their other game in a current 4-game stretch. On the other side, OHIO has been playing well this season, but they too aren't blowing people away and have only covered tonight's spread in 1 of their L5 games overall in 2011. When you look at this match-up historically, you would have to jump on Central Michigan as they surprisingly own this series, going 7-2 ML in the L9 meetings, although they were the favorites in every one of those games. But Central Michigan is also 4-0 ML and 3-1 ATS in the L4 games between them since 2005 and they have gone 5-1 ML and 4-2 ATS in the L6 meetings held in Michigan overall. As far as the OVER play goes, these two teams haven't really hit on the OVER historically when they match up, as tonight's total would have hit at a clip of 9-1 for the UNDER in their L10 match-ups overall, although the one time it did hit was 2 meetings ago in 2008. But in regards to 2011, OHIO has played to the over at a clip of 5-0 on the road, with only one of those totals finishing lower than tonight's 58 - and it ended at 57 in that one. On the other side of the ball, the Chippewas have also been playing to the OVER at home as they are 2-0 for the OVER in their L2 home games (2-1 overall at home for the Over in 2011) and they have averaged a combined 76 total points in their L2 at home. Not too mention these two teams have combined for over 940+ yards of offense in their L3 games and have combined for about 56 points between them. At the very least we expect this one to finish in the 31-28 range. Roll with CENTRAL MICHIGAN to COVER the SPREAD and for this one to go OVER the total........
UNDER 50 VIRGINIA TECH @ GEORGIA TECH
This number seems a bit too high for a match-up between these two teams, as in the L4 meetings between these two teams, they went over tonight's total only one time and that was for 51 combined points. The VA TECH offense is going to be the one that could break this play as they have scored 30 or more points in 4 of their L6 games, although they are coming in off a 14-10 W versus Duke in their last game. Both teams are coming in off a 10-day or so break and should be rested. That should be a good thing for GA TECH at home, as they are currently 4-1 ATS and 5-0 ML at home so far in 2011. They have played to an UNDER at a clip of 4-0 in their L4 overall games and have also failed to hit a combined total of 50 in those 4 as well. In their L3 games overall, VA TECH is averaging a decent 27 PPG, while allowing on average a measly 14 - for a combined total of 41 on average. GA TECH is playing much the same in their L3, allowing about 22 PPG and only scoring about 20 PPG on average in that span. In the series between these two teams, VA TECH is 3-1 ML in the L4 and 5-2 ML in the L7 match-ups since 2004, although GA TECH is a slightly better 4-3 ATS in those 7 games. GA TECH is currently averaging 53 YPG in the passing game in their L3 and 146 YPG in the air on the season and unfortunately that is the only way to win against VA TECH as they allow an average of 82 YPG in the rushing game. So for the Jackets to win this game, they will have to control the air game, which they are struggling with currently, probably without the benefit of any running game, as the Hokies should shut this one down early. Take the slightly inflated UNDER in this one and the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for the VICTORY SPREAD in this one........
TULANE WAVES (+35) AND UNDER 77
Okay now I get the reason for the inflated number and personally we did like the Over at 71, but 77 is just too high too recommend, especially considering the history between these two teams. These two teams have played 10 times since 2000 and although HOU is 8-2 ATS and ML in that span, they have only won a single game by more than 35 points in this series and that was a 45-7 victory back in 2006. Although it hasn't been pretty, TULANE has covered tonight's spread in all of the L5 meetings at home with losses of 28, 24, 21, 3 and a win of 18 in each of those games respectively. And although 60+ points isn't out of question when these two teams meet, they have played to under tonight's total at a clip of 9-1 in those 10 games, with no game ever finishing in the 70's between them at all. Roll with the massive underdog TULANE and for this one to stay UNDER the total........
MIAMI (OHIO) REDHAWKS (+13) AND UNDER 44.5
Alright, so this game has risen a half-point so far for the Temple Owls as the home team, but we really like the way the Redhawks have been playing as of late, and coupled with the struggles of the Owls recently, could even come close to pulling off the outright upset much like Western Michigan almost did last night in Toledo. For starters, Miami comes into this one 4-1 ATS and ML in their L5 games this season, but they are currently 2-4 ATS and 1-3 ML in their 4 road games so far this season. Their offense has been clicking on all cylindars for the most part in those L5 overall games, as they have scored at least 28 points in 4 of those games, and scored at least 35 points in 3 of their 4 wins in that span. Their defense has also been impressive, allowing 3 points in 2 of those games and 13 or less in 3 of the 5. And when you compare their games against the same opponents that Temple has played, they would also appear to match up pretty similarly here. The two teams have already squared off against the same opponents 4 times this season: AKRON (Miami won 35-3 last week at home; TEM won 41-3 on road on 9/10); BUFFALO (Miami won 41-13 at home; TEM won 34-0 at home); TOLEDO (MIA lost on road 49-28; TEM lost at home 36-13); BOWLING GREEN (MIA lost at home 37-23; TEM lost on road 13-10). Temple is 0-2 ATS and ML in their L2 games overall, but those 2 were on the road to be fair. They have been decent at home so far going 2-2 ML but they have been an impressive 3-1 ATS in their home confines on the year. They are 1-0 ATS as a double-digit home fave this year, but they are 5-5 ATS in that same situation over the L3 years. On the flip side, MIA is currently 0-2 ATS in 2011 when given a double-digit spread on the road (1-2 ATS overall) and are 5-6 on the road in that same spot over that same time span. The Redhawks are 2-0 ATS in the L2 meetings between these two schools, including last season's drubbing of the Owls at home, 23-3. Further, there has only been one game out of their 5 career meetings (all since 2005) that they wouldn't have covered tonight's 13 point spread. And with Pierce, a 1,000 yard rusher and 19 TD producer on the season listed as questionable due to a leg injury, we will roll comfortably with MIAMI tonight. And as for the UNDER, we know, we were killed on one under last night as it seemed like they hit 70 by the end of the 1st quarter in that Toledo game. But this one suggests different, even despite the low number given here. For starters, these two teams have played to under today's total in 3 of those 5 career meetings, including 3 of the L4 overall since 2007. Miami has also struggled to score on the road this season, averaging 16 points a game away from home, while Temple is extremely tough to score on at home, allowing only 14 points a game on average this season. Even further, Temple's defense has been downright dominant all season long, allowing 14 points or less at a clip of 7-2 in their 9 games this season - including 2 shutouts. Temple has played to the Under at a clip of 7-1 in their L8 games overall, while Miami has played to the Under in 7 of their L9 road games and in 9 of their L12 conference games overall. Roll with MIAMI, OHIO to COVER the near two touchdown SPREAD and for this one to go UNDER the total..........
UNDER 66.5 NO ILLINOIS HUSKIES @ BOWLING GREEN FALCONS AND BOWLING GREEN FALCONS (+6)
Okay so the Under might not be everybody's favorite play in this game, but for a TUESDAY night contest between these two teams, this line seems majorly inflated for a total. In the 8 career meetings between these two teams, they have never even come close to reaching tonight's total. In fact, they have only combined to hit 50 points in 3 of those 8 meetings (51, 52 and 57 points respectively) and have been held under 45 combined points in 3 of the other 4 games. But believe me, this one will not be easy, as NO ILLINOIS comes into this game having scored at least 30 points in 8 of their 9 games this season, and have had at least one team score in the 40's also in 8 of those 9 games (with the only game without a 40-point team, being a 31-30 No Illinois victory at Buff). However, Bowling Green plays a much different type of game, and have been the exact opposite, as they have only had 1 of their 9 games this season go Over today's total and that was their first home game of the season during week 2. Even further, in their L3 games overall, they have combined to score less than 50 points in all 3 of those games. This game should be heavy on the run too, as No Illinois comes into the game averaging 247 YPG on the ground offensively, while Bowling Green allows an average of 191YPG with their rushing defense. On the flip side, the Falcons don't have much of a rushing offense to depend on, averaging only 129 YPG on the ground overall - although the Huskies defense can't shut down any kind of rushing attack themselves, as they give up an average of 202 YPG on the ground. For the game, No Illinois has been red hot as of late, going 5-1 on the ML in their L6, although they have only gone 3-3 ATS in that span. They have struggled on the road this season however, as they are a less than impressive 2-3 ML and 1-4 ATS in their 5 games on the road this season. In those two lone victories on the road this season, they have won by only 3 points and 1 point in those games respectively. Bowling Green has been playing better as of late themselves and come into this game 2-1 ATS in their L3 games overall in 2011 and they have played equally as well at home so far this season, compiling a 2-2 ML record and a 3-1 ATS record in their own home stadium. In those 2 losses at home, one was by 7 points and the other was by only 1 point. Take the UNDER on this massive Tuesday night total and roll with BOWLING GREEN to COVER the SPREAD in this one..........
WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS (+12) AND UNDER 71
Okay, so this is a pretty weird Tuesday night of NCAA FB as both of these games seem a little too easy to be true. Let's hope that is the case in the end. These two teams have faced every season since 2001 (10 times) and besides last season's loss, Western Michigan has dominated this series in the L5, going 4-1 ML and 3-2 ATS in that span. The Underdog has been even better during that span, going 5-0 ATS in the L5 meetings between these two clubs. W. Michigan has also gone 2-1 ML in the L3 in Toledo and the Underdog was 3-0 ATS in those 3 games. In 2011, Western Michigan has struggled a bit, going 1-4 ML and 2-3 ATS in their 5 road trips this season, although they do have an impressive win at CONN and a hard-fought 3-point loss at ILL when they were hot. On the other side, Toledo has been pretty good at home and come into this game 3-2 ATS and 3-2 ML in their 5 home games in 2011. Although against teams not named Boise State and No Illinois at home, they are 3-0 ATS and 3-0 ML and have beaten those three teams by an average score of 32 points! But Western Michigan hasn't played in 10 days and should be well-rested and prepared for this challenge. As far as the Under goes, these two teams have combined to go under today's total at a clip of 4-2 in the L6 contests, and they have played to Under today's total at a clip of 1-4 in the L5 games played in Toledo. Roll with WESTERN MICHIGAN to COVER the SPREAD and for this one to stay UNDER today's huge total.......................
WEEK #10: (17-9 / YTD: 102-61-2)
CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (-2) AND OVER 44
This early morning match-up features a bit of a mismatch it would appear historically between these two teams as they have played 7 times since 2004 and CONN is currently riding a 4-0 ATS and ML streak in this match-up and is 5-1 ATS and ML in the L6. Also, they have actually handled the Orange easily at home, going 3-0 ATS and ML in their 3 home games against them, winning all by at least 19 points or more - with the average margin of victory being 22.5 points. They come into this contest rested and should be ready to go, as they have had a little bit of break, having not played since 10/26. They lost at PITT in that one, 35-20, and they were also coming into that game on an 11-day break. Syracuse has struggled a bit on the road this season, going 1-2 ML and 0-3 ATS and they are coming in off of a 27-10 blowout loss at LOU in their last game. UCONN is only 2-2 ML at home this season, but they too have struggled ATS going 1-3 in their home confines. However, the Huskies are 12-5 ATS in their L17 at home and are an even better 6-2 ATS in their L8 conference games. Roll with CONNECTICUT to COVER the SPREAD here and for this one to go OVER the total...........
MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (+28)
Okay so as crazy as this play may seem to be to make, the Gophers actually give us great reason for considering them to pull off an upset in this one, at least on the spread anyway, as the underdog is 9-1 in the L10 meetings between these two teams since 1997. Not too mention, the Gophers are a surprising 8-2 ATS in those 10 games and they actually are 3-1 on the ML in the L4 meetings. Their most recent meeting last year was a MICH ST blowout by 23-points, 31-8, in Spartan-land, but we'll take that result all day again today. The Gophers are also riding some momentum into this one as they pulled off a stunning come-from-behind win last week, beating IOWA 22-21 and we expect them to play like the team that opened the season as 19-17 losers at a tough USC squad. MICH ST had their title hopes completely dashed last week in a blowout loss to NEB, 24-3, but they should play well enough to make this one look like a blowout early. The last time they lost (at ND) they responded by coming home and destroying CENT MICH, 45-7. The Gophers should be up to the task of covering such a huge line in this one. Take MINNESOTA as a huge road underdog on the spread here.......
TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS (+14) AND OVER 61
Apparently this is gearing towards a week for upset specials on the spread, as we are rolling with yet another double-digit dog in this contest. TECH comes into this game off of a disappointing let-down loss at home to IOWA ST, 41-7, but that was probably to be expected after they stunned the world the week before pulling off the shocking upset of OKLA in Norman, 41-38. This game should be easy money, as history suggests this game will be close in the end overall, as 4 of the L5 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 10-points or less, with the only other game being a 16-point TEX victory. TEXAS does come into the game 8-2 on the ML in the L10 contests between them since 2001, but the two teams have split those 10 meetings ATS, going 5-5. On the 2011 season, Tech has played very well all year long, excluding last week, as they had yet to lose a game by more than 7 points in any of their 8 other games. In fact, their other 2 losses were by 7 and 5 points respectively and they are currently 3-0 ATS and ML on the road so far in their 3 games away from home this season. And Texas hasn't necessarily been dominant at home this season, going 2-2 ML and 1-3 ATS in their 4 home games. They have also been struggling mightily in their home confines lately, going 3-9 ATS in their L12 home games, and 2-7 ATS in their L9 conference games overall. As for the OVER, these two teams should be able to cover this spread easily and the 4th quarter might simply just be a time killer, as in their L10 meetings, they have scored over today's total of 61 at a clip of 7-3 for the OVER, although it would be 0-2 in the L2 games. This season though, TECH has scored at least 34 points themselves in 8 of their 9 games and average almost 40 PPG for the season as well. Texas has struggled against the good teams at home, allowing an average of 46.5 in their L2 home losses to OKLA and OKLA ST. Jump on TEXAS TECH to cover this spread easily and for this one to go OVER the total........
LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (+13.5)
Again another upset special ATS as the Cardinal come into this game on a bit of a roll after 2 consecutive impressive victories against SYR and RUT in their L2 games at home. On the road, LOU is 3-0 ATS, despite being 1-2 ML overall in those 3 games. However, they have yet to lose a game by more than 9 points all season. WV has had another productive season, going 6-2 ML coming into this game, although they have been not as successful ATS at 6-4. At home, they have struggled going 2-3 ATS, but they are actually 2-0 in their L2. In the 6 meetings between these two teams since 2005, they have only had one game decided by more than 10 points, and it was by 14. The two teams have split those 6 meetings ATS, but in the 3 games in West Virginia, the 3 games have been decided by 8, 7 and 2 points respectively (as was the previous game in WV before that). Roll with another dog here and take the LOUISVILLE CARDINALS to COVER the SPREAD.........
VANDERBILT COMMODORES (+13.5)
This game apparently opened at -10 and has jumped 3.5 points for FLA at home, but I am unsure as to what exactly the bettors are seeing in this one. VANDY comes into this one having played well pretty much all season, going 6-2 ATS, despite only being 4-4 overall. They did struggle in their 2 games on the road, suffering embarrassing blowout losses to 'Bama by 34 and So Carolina by 18. Ever since making the QB switch to Aaron Rodgers' younger brother however, the Commodores have played well, despite being 1-2 in those 3 games, they have either won or stayed within 5 points in the end. FLA comes into this game in the midst of an absolute tailspin, as they have dropped their L4 games overall (although 3 of those were on the road) after winning their 1st 4 games this season. In their L3 games, Vandy has been very impressive on the ground, rushing for an average of 255 YPG and FLA has struggled defending the run, as they are allowing over 190 YPG on the ground in their L3 contests overall. Vandy has also covered the spread in all 6 games they have also won the rushing battle, which they should do here today. Take VANDY to cover the spread in this one.............
TULANE GREEN WAVES (+26.5)
Again, another line that I just have no idea where they are coming up with these numbers, as in the L6 meetings between these two teams since 2000, Tulane is 4-3 on both the ML and ATS, but every meeting between the two has been 14 points or less, and in 9 of the L10 meetings between them overall. Although Tulane isn't the strongest team out there and they have struggled when they are double-digit underdogs, going 0-5 ATS on the season in that situation. But again, historically these two teams have played their games tight and SMU has also only managed to put 10 points on the board combined in their L2 games. Seems like a good spot to take TULANE with a monster spread in this one........
OVER 58 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS @ WISCONSIN BADGERS
Although these two teams have played 10 times since 1997, the only time in that span a game has gone OVER today's total was all the way back in 1997. But this is not your same Badgers squad, and they have combined to total at least 60 points in each of their L5 games on the season and in 6 of their 8 in 2011. They have scored 30+ points in 7 of their 8 games this season, and were stopped at 29 in the other one. They also come into this one averaging OVER 58 points total in their 6 home games this year. The OVER is also 8-1 in the L9 November games WIS has played. Go with the OVER 58 in this game.........
PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (+3.5)
This seems like a good spot to pick up a nice home dog CASHER on both the SPREAD and ML, as Pitt comes into this one 5-1 ATS and 4-2 ML in the 6 career meetings between these two teams. Pitt has also been on a roll in their recent conference play, going 14-5 in their L19 within the Big East, while CIN has struggled going 3-9 ATS in their L12 conference games. CIN is also 3-7 ATS in their L10 road games, although they do come into this game 6-1 ML on the season and 5-2 ATS in 2011. On the road they are 2-1 ML and ATS so far, but PITT is currently 4-2 ML at home so far. This should be a week in which the Bearcats are officially going to fall back to Earth. Jump on PITTSBURGH as a decent home dog in this one...........
OVER 69.5 KANSAS STATE WILDCATS @ OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS
BOISE STATE BRONCOS 1ST HALF (-20) AND OVER 59.5 BOISE STATE BRONCOS @ UNLV REBELS
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (-4) AND OVER 41
The biggest trend in play today is this one: Saban has led his team to 14-straight "revenge" type victories. Although this would be the spot for 'Bama to potentially slip up, I think it's going to be even more potentially problematic for this LSU squad playing in Crimson country.
OHIO BOBCATS (+4) AND OVER 46.5
Ohio is 3-1 straight up in the 4 career meetings between these two schools since 2007 and they are 3-0-1 ATS in those 4 meetings. They have played tough all season, especially at home either winning or hanging within at least 3 points in their L4 games overall and in 7 of their 8 games this season. The Over was a little tougher call as this is borderline as to where we expect this game to end up and if it goes over it wont be by much - by we do expect it to go over in the end. TEM hasn't gone over in any game since their first game of the season, but they have gone over in each of the L2 meetings in this series. Take OHIO with the points and for this game to go OVER in the end........
OVER 69 NO ILLINOIS HUSKIES @ TOLEDO ROCKETS AND NO ILLINOIS HUSKIES (+9.5)
We originally were feeling the UNDER here based on it being a TUES night game, but these two teams have put points on the board in their games and with both coming off an almost 2 week breaks, the offenses should be ready to be on full display tonight. These two teams have combined to go Over tonight's total at a clip of 2-2 in their L4 meetings, with the 2 Overs hitting with over 90 points scored between the two in each game. On the season, NO ILL has had 2 of their 3 road games have one team score 40+ points, while Toledo has had one team score at least 49 points in each of their home games this season. And NO ILL won last season's meeting by a score of 65-30! NO ILL also comes into this game rolling on the season overall, winning their L3 games straight-up and 4 out of their L5. In each of those games they controlled the running game, which should also be something they are able to do tonight, which should allow them to hang within this huge point spread. Roll with NORTHERN ILLINOIS to COVER the SPREAD and for this game to go OVER the total..........
BOSTON COLLEGE (+14.5) AND UNDER 45.5
Okay, so the weather is going to be cold and frigid tonight and I think this is a good spot to go with a Boston team somewhat used to the elements tonight as opposed to the team from the swamplands of Florida. These two teams have played every season since 2005 and they have never had a game between them decided by more than 11 points. On first glance we instantly liked BC and after seeing that stat, we like it even more. In fact, if you go off of recent history, the Eagles are 2-1 ML in the L3 meetings and 3-3 ML in the 6 career match-ups overall. Also, BC has gone 3-0 ATS in the L3 and 4-2 ATS in the 6 career meetings. Even more telling, the Underdog has actually gone 5-0 ATS in the L5 and is 5-1 ATS in all 6 games. As for tonight's game, neither of these teams is going to get any help with rest as they both played 5 days ago and we expect that may also prove to be a small point for the home team Eagles. At home so far in 2011, the Eagles have played fairly well also, as although they have gone 1-3 ML and 1-3 ATS, they have yet to lose a game by more than 8 points there. On the road this season, FLA ST hasn't been all that great either, going 1-2 ML and ATS, although they did handle DUKE in their lone road win by 25 points, 41-16. BC may have a bit of momentum, as they come in off their first W in the L4 games, with a road victory over Maryland, 28-17. As far as the Over/Under is concerned, these two teams have combined to score anywhere from 43-45 points in 5 of their 6 meetings. The other meeting they combined to score 47. So this one should be right around the total, but we will shade it towards the UNDER as we would have been safe there in 5 out their 6 career games. Roll with BOSTON COLLEGE to COVER this TWO TD SPREAD and for this one to scrape UNDER the low total..........
TULSA HURRICANES (+2) AND OVER 48.5
Tulsa comes into this game on an absolute heater as they are 4-0 ML in their L4 games, although 3 of those wins came within the comfy confines of Tulsa. But they did perform at their peak and all 4 games were won in blowout fashion by at least 17 points or more in each one. In fact, they have also played decently on the road all season, going 2-2 ML and 3-1 ATS in their 4 road outings in 2011 and all but one of those games has easily crushed tonight's Over on the total as well. In fact, Tulsa has actually been playing well all season, as they are 5-0 ML against teams not named OKLA STATE, OKLA and BOISE ST. They should be able to pull off another win in this one tonight, even on the road as long as they can control the offensive yardage battle, as the only 3 games they have lost this season to those 3 powerhouse programs, were also the only game in which they lost the offensive yardage game. And they should be able to control the tempo throughout this one as in their L3 games as they have averaged 494 YPG of offense in that span with nearly 315 of those YPG coming from the air. Roll with TULSA to COVER as the small underdog and for this one to go OVER the total........
AKRON ZIPS (+14)
Again, a chance to roll with a team on a 2 TD spread just seems a bit too much in this match-up. Although the home team is 9-4 ATS in the L13 meetings between these two teams, AKRON comes into this match-up 3-0 ATS in the L3 meetings between these two teams - including last season's 19-14 loss in Akron. Apparently the public is seeing it, but I don't see the obvious mismatch that makes this a blowout for Miami, OH. In the 10 meetings since 1999, Akron has hung within tonight's spread at a clip of 7-3 overall. Akron has been producing for its backers in recent weeks, going 4-1 ATS in their L5 games, with each of those 4 games either resulting in a victory or a loss of 10-points or less. Miami, OH has also been producing lately, going 3-1 ML and ATS in their L4 games, but their last game against BUFF was the only game all season in which they won by 14-points or more. In their other 2 victories on the season, they won by 6 and 7 points respectively. There is also supposed to be rain and cold weather in the 40's for this one tonight and it should cause for problems for these two offenses. Although MIAMI has barely any running game to depend on, averaging 62 YPG in the L3 and 82 YPG at home, it should be a difficult night for passing and we expect the running game to produce their most productive numbers of the season in this one. These two teams have combined to go 3-0 for the UNDER in the L3 meetings and all 3 were easily under tonight's total, with combined total scores of 33 points, 7 points and 37 points in those contests. Roll with AKRON to COVER another monster SPREAD................
COLORADO BUFFALOES (+20.5) AND UNDER 57.5
Alright, so one of the local ticket writers here in Vegas were swearing up and down to us last night that USC is the lock of the week. I just don't see it. These 2 teams don't have much history to go off of as they have played 2 times and the last one was in 2002. But USC by 20?? Seems like too many points. COL has only lost 1 game at home by more than 4 points and that was to ORE by a score of 45-2 in their L game. Roll with COLORADO to COVER the massive SPREAD and for this one to stay UNDER the total........
WEEK #9: (16-8 / YTD: 85-52-2)
UNDER 55.5 AND TROY TROJANS (+6.5)
Another Tuesday night of football, and another night of an Under we think around here. Although when you look at the history between these two teams, history might suggest otherwise as these two teams have played to the Over in each of their L3 meetings. However, both of these teams have slowed down the scoring in recent weeks and neither teams has played to an Over on the 2011 season in over 3 weeks! In fact, Troy comes in having played to the Under in each of their L3 games overall, and FIU has played to the Under at a clip of 4-1-1 in the L6 weeks. In their history against each other, these two teams have played 7 times, with Troy walking away the victor in 6 of those 7. And although they may be 6-1 on the ML, Troy has struggled to cover the spread in this match-up with FIU going 4-2 ATS in the L6 meetings (there was no spread in their 1st meeting). On the 2011 season, Troy comes into the game 2-4 overall, with their only 2 victories decided by 3 points or less. On the other side of the ball, FIU is 4-3 so far on the young season, but they have gone 1-3 in their L4 after starting out the season 3-0. At home, they are 2-2 on the season, but have not lost a game in Florida yet in 2011 by more than 5 points! There are some questionable injuries that could affect this game, but as of writing this, have not heard of anyone being held out officially that would alter our play here. On the season, the stats suggest that FIU should be able to hang in this one as well, as in the L3 games, they are averaging about 460 YPG of offense, while this Troy defense is averaging about 440 YPG allowed defensively. This game should kick off another great week in NCAA FB! Roll with TROY plus the near touchdown spread and go with the UNDER in this one.............
CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (+10.5) AND OVER 41
This one seems too good to be true, as although the Huskies haven't necessarily been playing up to their normal standards recently, in our minds it is crazy to have them as underdogs by this many points. If you look at their match-up historically, the Huskies have always fared well in their meetings, going 5-2 ATS in their 7 career meetings, including 2-1 ATS in Pitt (1-2 ML). Even further, the favorite is 0-5 ATS in their L5 meetings, and CONN is 4-1 ATS as an underdog in their meetings. On the 2011 season, CONN comes into the game, 1-2 on the road on both the ML and ATS, although they are 0-2 on the road ATS as a dog, losing in a blowout loss as a 19-point dog at West Virginia, 43-16, and dropping a tight one at Vandy, 24-21, as small 1.5-point dogs. However that blowout loss at WV was their only game this season in which they were even close to losing to this spread, as they most they have lost by in a single game other than the WV game is 7 points. On the flip side of the ball, PITT has been in somewhat of a tailspin lately, going 1-4 ATS and on the ML in their L5 games, and the caliber of the talent in their opponents in those contests is not necessarily any greater than this Husky team. Although the Panthers are 3-2 ML at home this season, they are 2-3 ATS at home, including 0-3 ATS when favored while playing in Pittsburgh. I really don't understand where this total is coming from and why it is so low, perhaps it is because it is a Wed night game, but these two teams should easily coast to at least 20 points on both sides of the ball. In their 7 game history, they have only played one game where the total ended going Under tonight's total, and that was back in 2005. The L5 contests have all finished with at least 45 points or more, and we figure this one should be very much the same in the end. This one should be easy money. Roll with UCONN with the HUGE SPREAD and take this one to cruise OVER the low total.......
BYU COUGARS (+13) AND UNDER 57.5
BYU is playing better in recent weeks and they should be able to maintain within a near 2TD spread in this one. TCU is 3-0 ATS in the L3 in this one with an average MOV being about 27 points. But they haven't really been all that impressive against good teams this season, while this BYU squad has been clicking at all cylinders lately. They are an even 5-5 in the L10 meetings ATS and the total has come well under tonight's total at a clip of 8-2 in their L10 meetings as well.
NEBRASKA (-4) AND MONEY LINE (-170) AND 1ST HALF (-2) AND OVER 49
Nebraska is 3-0 ATS and on the ML in this match-up historically. They haven't faced off since 2003 though, but the huge MICH ST win last week should be enough for a letdown in this one. NEB is 4-0 ML at home in 2011 with two big wins over WASH and OH ST, but currently sits at 0-4 ATS while in Lincoln. They have only played one game all season that wouldn't cover the OVER on this total as well. MICH ST comes in off 3 big wins over OH ST, MICH and WIS - but they have struggled on the road this season, going 1-1 on the ML with a lopsided loss at ND 31-13 and a FG victory at OH ST. Roll with the HUSKERS big in this one.........
UNDER 63 CLEMSON @ GEORGIA TECH
These two teams have met 10 times since 2002 and they have only gone over today's total 1 time in those 10 meetings. These two historically play lower-scoring games, despite the flashiness of both of their offenses. Although CLEM has scored 56+ points in each of their L2 games, we think the defense of GA TECH, which has kept almost every opponent in the 20's or under, should be able to hold CLEM to a lower 30's type of number. As long as GA TECH doesn't keep up the scoring with them, we should be safe here. Roll with the UNDER in this match-up......
MICHIGAN 1ST HALF (-7) AND MICHIGAN (-14)
Michigan should be ready for this game as they come in having not played since 10/15 when they lost the big one to interstate rival MICH ST. Although PUR has been playing well in recent weeks and on the season overall, the Wolverines should be ready to go in this one. Surprisingly, MICH is 4-22 ATS in their L26 conference games. However, the home team is 8-2-1 ATS in their L11 games when these 2 teams meet. Run with MICHIGAN big in this one.......
INDIANA HOOSIERS (+9)
This one is much like last week's match-up between USC and ND as these two teams have a long storied history playing against each other in the Big-10 and surprisingly they have been a great match-up to watch in recent years as the Underdog has covered ATS in each of the L5 games, as well as has gone 7-1 ATS in the L8 meetings, with IND covering the spread at a clip of 4-1 in the L5. Even further, they haven't had a game played between them decided by more than 3 points since 2004 and no game has been decided by more than 7 points since 2001. Roll with INDIANA as a nice underdog at home in this one......
SYRACUSE ORANGE (+3)
The 'Cuse are 7-3 ATS in the L10 meetings between these 2 teams, including 5-1 ATS in the L6. Syracuse has also played very well all season and have only had 1 setback on the road in a big loss at USC. They also dropped a tough loss at home to RUT by 3 points, which is significant because LOU actually beat RUT by 3 points at home themselves. However, Syracuse should be able to get their running game going in this one which will be key here. Roll with SYRACUSE to cover the FG spread......
NAVY (+22)
This one seems to be a mismatch again on the spread, but apparently everyone is jumping all over the Irish in this one as they have raised the spread a monster 4.5 points since the opening line. I don't really know why though as NAVY has always played well in this series, actually going 7-3 ATS in the L10 match-ups against each other. The road team has been even more impressive in this one, going 14-2 ATS in the L16 meetings. Jump on NAVY as a huge underdog in this one......
OVER 71 RICE OWLS @ HOUSTON COUGARS AND RICE OWLS (+28)
This game is all about Case Keenum make no mistake about it and this kid is legit. He has been a true gem to watch in NCAA FB for the last few years and I love every chance he gets to showcase himself and his skills on the big stage. That being said, either we are way off on this game, or everyone else in the world in sniffing glue here. And I mean EVERYONE. I have seen places where the so-called "experts" are favoring HOU in this game by a count of 20-0 even, but I just don't see where they are coming up with those reasons. Let's begin with the OVER in this one, which should be easy enough despite its extremely inflated number of 71, but this one seems to be a no-brainer as these two teams historically shred the total in their cross-town meetings. With the exception of last year's meeting (which fell 0.5 points short of the Over) they were 4-0 on the Over and 5-of-6 in their career against each other. In 2010, the final ended 35-31, which would fall short here tonight, but the 3 previous meetings were totals of 87, 98 and 104 respectively. Rice has put up 34 points or more in 3 of the L4 meetings, and over 42 in 2 of those, themselves. HOU has scored at least 42 points in 3 of the L4 meetings themselves. On the 2011 season, HOU has scored at least 48 points in 5 of their L6 and have scored at least 49 points in EACH of their L4 games overall. At home on the season, they have scored AT LEAST 56 points in EACH of their L3 home games as well. This team can score in bunches and in a hurry. And tonight should be no different. Rice does make us a little tentative here but besides there opening season loss to TEX, they have scored at least 20 points in every game so far this season - but they haven't exploded for points in any game so far this season, with their top game total topping out at 31 points. However, it is in the massive 28-point spread, I just don't understand where everyone is coming from on that one. Rice is 2-2 on the ML in the L4 meetings, including an upset win last year by a score of 34-31. It's true Keenum did not play in that contest due to injury, but Rice is also 4-1 ATS in the L5 meetings and 5-2 ATS in the L7 meetings between the two teams overall. And again, these two teams know each other very well, playing less than 6 miles apart from each other. In the L game Keenum did play against them, HOU torched Rice by a score of 73-14 and outgained the Rice offense by 326 yards in the passing game alone! There is a chance that could happen again tonight, but this Rice team has played tough enough to warrant a play on a 28-point spread, as despite the fact they are 3-4 ATS on the season, they haven't lost a game by 28 points on the season so far. They have dropped a few by 25 and 24, but we figure that should be able to hold within that total again tonight. Especially when you consider the history between these two teams. It isn't going to be pretty and make no mistake, this will probably be a HOUSTON blowout, but roll with the massive OVER and with RICE as the HUGE +28 dogs in this one.........
MIAMI HURRICANES 1ST HALF (-7) AND VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (+14) AND UNDER 49.5
OVER 48 COLORADO STATE @ UNLV
Again another conference match-up and another total that makes us go hmmmm. These two teams have met 10 times since 2001, and they have easily covered 48 points in each of the L5 meetings and in 8 of the 10 meetings overall. These aren't necessarily defensive teams in 2011 either, as both teams have had a total score over 48 in 5 of their L6 games so far this season. Take the OVER here and watch the points pile on the board in the ugliest of fashions......
USC TROJANS (+9)
Although STAN has owned this series in recent years, going 5-2 ATS in the L7 meetings, USC does have reason to feel like they can hang in this one. USC dropped a tight one last year 37-35 and have either won outright or lost by 2 points or less in 8 of the L9 match-ups between these two teams. Grab USC to cover the spread in this game.....
OVER 48.5 WISCONSIN @ OHIO STATE
These two teams should be able to manage to cover this pretty low total for an offense like the Badgers in this one. This one should be close and tough, but Wilson will be back to respond to last week's heartbreaking loss to MICH ST. Roll with the OVER tonight......
WEEK #8: (16-4 / YTD: 69-44-2)
ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES (-3) AND UNDER 53.5 --
Both of these teams are coming into this game off of a 10-day break and both are coming off road victories in their last games - FIU winning at Akron 27-17 and ARK ST winning at UL Monroe 24-19. Despite that victory ten days ago, FIU comes into this game having dropped 2 of their L3 games overall - although they are a somewhat surprising 2-0 on the road so far, with the other road victory coming at LOU in Week 2, by a score of 24-17. On the flip side, ARK ST has been dominant at home so far on the season, going 2-0 so far and outscoring opponents 100-27 in those 2 games - although it was against CARK and MEM, two teams that are of less caliber than this FIU team. But ARK ST has been getting the job done so far in 2011, coming in on a 3-game winning streak overall and having won 4 out of 5, with their only loss during that span against a tough VA TECH team in Virginia, 26-7. Historically between these 2 teams, the home team has been victorious in 5 out of the 6 career meetings (all since 2005), with ARK ST a perfect 3-0 at home in the match-up. In fact, ARK ST is 4-2 overall heads-up in the match-up, and would be 2-0-1 against this -3 point spread in this game. Off of a week or more off, FIU has also struggled in recent seasons, going 0-4 in the L4 such situations. Overall they have been wretched in the L3+ Octobers, as they are 1-8 ATS in their L9 games played during the month of October. As for the UNDER play, this game started off at 55 and has since been bought down to the current 53.5 it sits at here in Vegas and should be at with most of the online books. These 2 teams combined to score 55 points in last season's match-up, but other than that have been held well under the 53.5 total in the previous 4 games before that. ARK ST has been playing to the UNDER a lot lately as well, as the UNDER play has cashed in 7 of their L8 games overall. In October, they also historically play to the UNDER as well, playing to the UNDER at a clip of 8-2-1 in their L11 games held in the month. This game seems to scream it in every way. Roll with ARK STATE to cover the spread and for this game to remain UNDER the inflated total all game..........
ARIZONA WILDCATS (-4) and MONEY LINE (-180) AND UNDER 62 --
The Wildcats come into this game in desperate need of a W. After starting out last season as a potential champion contender at 7-1, they have now lost 10 of their L11 games played. Absolutely abysmal! And this week, it finally cost Coach Stoops his job. So the Wildcats come into this game with a new coach and what should be a renewed outlook on the season. Both teams enter this game with some key injuries, as AZ is expected to be without their star receiver Criner, and often used QB Brehaut out with a broken leg for the Bruins. In the recent history between these two teams, Arizona has dominated going 4-0 ATS in the L4 match-ups overall, as well as 4-0 ATS in the L4 match-ups played in Tucson. Even further, the home team is 6-2 ATS in their L8 meetings and the favorite has also covered the spread in all 4 of the L4 games. As for the Under, these two teams have played every year and the total has only reached over 62 in 1 of the L10 games played between the two (2005), and they have only come close one other time in that span. This one should remain an easy CASHER for us as well, as we are going to roll with history tonight. I say jump on the ARIZONA WILDCATS to WIN and COVER the -4 SPREAD, and throw the UNDER in there for good measure.......
UAB BLAZERS (+16.5) AND OVER 45 --
This one will be an interesting one to watch as UAB comes into this game without their leading rusher Shed, and will be relying on a seldom used SOPH RB in tonight's game. This game also has a lot of history that should ultimately be beneficial for us in the end tonight. These 2 teams always seem to play to the Over and for the number to be so low, should make this another easy CASHER for us. In the 8 total meetings between these 2 teams, the total has only been under tonight's 45 only 2 times! Other than that, these two teams have cruised to an Over in 6 of the 8 meetings in their history. Although UCF has dominated this match-up overall, going 5-2 ATS in the L7 meetings, UAB has currently covered the spread in each of their L4 games in 2011 - with two of the spreads within this 16.5 range. UAB has struggled recently in conference play however, going 2-5 ATS in the L7 conference games played. On the flip side, UCF has only had one game this season in which they were double-digit favorites (-19.5 vs. MARSH) and they only ended up winning by 10 points and falling well short of covering the spread. Roll with UAB to COVER the +16.5 SPREAD and jump on the OVER in this game......
SYRACUSE ORANGE (+14) AND UNDER 60 --
Well it looks like we are rolling against the public on this play - but we usually end up on the right side of the coin when that happens anyway, so we're not too worried about it. Syracuse is a tough team to beat at home and did beat this Mountaineer team in West Virginia in 2010's match-up, by a score of 19-14, so we see no reason why this team can't pull off at least another close one this season. Not too mention, last year they were also +13.5 dogs in that game, and come into this one in almost identical fashion as a +14 underdog, but this time they have the slight edge in the home-field advantage. W. Virginia has dominated the Orange in Syracuse however, going 4-0 overall in the L4 and is actually 5-0 ATS in the L5 games played in NY. However, this Syracuse team is a little different and has played every game tight at home this season, with all 4 games at home, decided by 7 points or less (2 by 3 points). Also, West Virginia struggled somewhat in their lone road game in 2011, holding on for a victory over Maryland by 6 points. On the total side, these two teams obviously can score the ball, but historically when they match up against each other, the Under ends up winning out. These two teams match up every season, and they have played to an UNDER in all of the L3 match-ups, as well as 5 out of L7. In fact, they have played to the UNDER to a tune of 10-4-1 in the L15 match-ups. In the L5 meetings played at Syracuse, they have only come close to reaching tonight's total 1 time. The Orange also historically play to lower totals during October games at home, as they have gone UNDER in 7 of the L9 games there during the Halloween month. Roll with SYRACUSE and the 14 POINTS and keep this game UNDER 60........
OVER 40 RUTGERS KNIGHTS @ LOUISVILLE CARDINALS --
This match-up has only come close to going UNDER this meager total in 1 of the 7 career meetings between these 2 teams, and even that was a 41-0 victory. I don't see how these teams fail to score at least 20 each in this one as well. Louisville has played low,low-scoring games this season, but this game should be controlled by Rutgers and although they have played to a lot of UNDERS this season, those games were all in the 50's for totals. I say roll with the OVER in this one......
WISCONSIN BADGERS (-7) AND OVER 50
Alright, we are going to let you in on a little secret, as soon as we heard Russell Wilson signed with the Badgers, they became our instant pick for the 2011 National Champions. This team has always been dominant as it is, but once you add a top-level QB like Wilson, it became easy money! And this game should be no different. We already have a little bit of help as MICH ST will be without star linebacker Gholston, as well as the Badgers will have star WR Toon back in the lineup for them on the other side of the ball. WIS has absolutely dominated in every way this season in going 6-0, even throttling a tough NEB team 45-17, although all of their games have been considered home games and 5 of the 6 have been played in Madison (other game played at Soldier Field vs. NO ILL). So this will officially be considered their first road test, and it should be a good one against a tough MICH ST team, although the Badgers should have enough to hold the Spartans off by 10-14 points in the end. MICH ST comes into the game 4-2 ATS on the season, including 3-1 ATS at home - although they are only 1-1 when listed as an underdog on the spread. They were +6 at ND and were blown out by the Irish by a score of 31-13, and they were +3 dogs at OH ST and they ended up pulling off the upset over the Buckeyes, 13-10. Wisconsin on the other hand has been unbelievable this season so far, scoring at least 35 points in every game and averaging 50 points a game overall. Their defense has been just as impressive, as they have allowed a combined 58 points in all 6 games, with 34 of those points coming against UNLV and NEB. They have averaged a 44-point margin of victory in their L3 games, although this test against MICH ST on the road will be much tougher of course. Although the home team is 6-0 straight up in the L6 and 7-3 in the L10 overall in this match-up, the Wilson factor should make a big enough difference in this one in our opinion. And because these two play the typical Big-Ten conference schedule, playing a rotating home-and-home schedule every year, they have split the L6 match-ups, going 3-3, but the Badgers have gone 6-4 overall in the L10, with 2 of the 3 road wins in the match-up. This head-to-head battle has played to the OVER in 8 of the L10 meetings, with 8 of the 10 also covering our 50-point total in today's game. Not too mention, the Badgers have scored 50 points in 3 of their 6 games themselves, and scoring 48 and 49, respectively, in 2 of the 3 games in which they didn't score 50 points!! And Cousins should also be able to find a way to get his team at least 24+ points, and at home has lead the Spartans to at least 28-points in all 4 games in Michigan so far this season. This one should be an easy casher on the Over. Jump on the WISCONSIN BADGERS to COVER the touchdown SPREAD and for this game to fly to an EASY OVER...........
USC TROJANS (+9.5) AND USC TROJANS MONEY LINE (+320)
This line I absolutely do not understand. And how it has even raised an entire point up to this 9.5 number, I understand even less. We obviously are rolling against the public again in a major way in this one, but again I have no clue what the public could possibly be thinking. These two teams have played in every season since 2001 and USC has won 8 of those 10 meetings, with their only losses against ND coming in 2010 and 2001. In South Bend, they have been equally impressive as they have gone 4-0 there since 2003. And for the most part, these meetings haven't even been close - as the Trojans have won by 30+ points in 6 of those 8 wins!! They are only 6-4 ATS in the L10 meetings, but the Underdog has covered in the L2 match-ups, although both of those were the Irish, including last season's 20-16 victory in Southern Cal. Notre Dame is rested, coming in off a 14-day layoff and have been playing much better in recent games, as after starting off the season 0-2, they have since gone 4-0 overall (3-1 ATS) and have won their L2 games by 26+ points each, although they were games against much weaker AF and PUR. USC on the other hand comes into the game 5-1 overall on the season (3-3 ATS) and 1-1 on the road, with their lone loss coming in that 20+ point blowout at AZ ST a few weeks back. They too are coming off a little bit of a break, as they haven't played since the 13th, when they beat up on CAL 30-9 on the road. With Tyler out, the Trojans are going to have to depend on Barkley and the passing game to get their offense going and put points on the board and they have been clicking decently as of late in the passing game, averaging almost 300 yards of passing offense in their L3 games. It won't be easy for them against this Irish pass defense, which has been tough in their L3 as well, allowing just a shade over 185 passing YPG in that span. However, those were against much weaker offenses and against QB's with much less talent than Barkley has. This kid is legit, and his 68% completion rating and 16 TD's against 4 INT's proves he has what it takes to play at the next level. The injuries for the Trojans could play a factor here, but when a team owns the other as the Trojans historically do in a series like this, we have to take the chance, especially with such a generous point spread in our favor. Roll with the USC TROJANS as a big underdog here...............
NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (-24.5) AND 1ST HALF (-13.5)
There isn't much history to go off of in this series, but as a hometown Minnesota boy and a lifelong fan of the Golden Gophers this one just seems to easy to be true. I do personally remember the last two times these teams played against each other (back in 1989-1990) and, well, forgive me for the saying the Gophers suck! The focus in this one shouldn't be whether or not the Gophers can actually hang with Nebraska, but whether or not they can actually score their first point ever against the school. In the only two previous meetings between these schools in '89-'90, the Huskers outscored Minnesota by a combined score of 104-0!! That's right, 104-0!! The Huskers destroyed the Gophers in Minnesota by a score of 48-0! I know that was a long time ago, but the two teams meet up in pretty much the same circumstances. This Huskers team is loaded and built for a spot in a BCS Bowl game, while the Gophers are completely inept and have won only 3 G in the last calendar year. The Gophers do come in to this game off of a 14-day break, although the game before that they were destroyed by a not-very-good Purdue team in IND by a score of 45-17. At Michigan a week before that, they were completely blown off the field by the Wolverines by a score of 58-0! They come into this game 1-2 at home, both ATS and ML and have been a meager 3-8 ATS in their L11 home games overall. Nebraska comes in, also having been off for the L14 days - however their last game was a very nice, hard-earned victory over OH ST at home by a score of 34-27. Nebraska has been awful ATS on the season so far, going 1-5 ATS in their 6 G, but their schedule has been a little tougher than most and the only other competition they have played similar to the Gophers caliber of play would be Chattanooga, which they handled easily at home in the opening game of the season, 40-7. The Huskers should completely dominate this one on the ground, as over their L3 games, they have averaged over 240+ yards on the ground, while the Gophers have also allowed an average of 240 yards on the ground in their L3. We expect the Huskers to score early and often in this game, as they have a chance to finally play one of the cupcakes on the Big 10 schedule. They went 1-1 against OH ST and WISC, so now it's time to blow up MINN. Roll with NEBRASKA to COVER THE GAME SPREAD and the FIRST HALF SPREAD in this one.......
OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (-6.5) AND UNDER 69.5 --
I have to admit, this is going to be a tough game for OK ST, but they just seem to be too good that they should be able to withstand a tough charge against them by the Tigers in Missouri. We do not mind the fact that we are going against the public in this one, as they are obviously on Missouri as the line has dropped a whole point since it opened, down to what should be a perfect number for us to take advantage of as we expect this one to be a 7-10 point, Cowboy victory. The Cowboys are loaded and come into this game having just outlasted another tough team on the road last week, in picking up a 38-26 win at TEXAS. That game was also a 7-point spread in favor of OK ST and they covered it fairly with ease by 12. On the season, the team has hardly been challenged, going 6-0 overall with an overall margin of victory of 22+ points. In fact, despite a fairly challenging schedule, they have only played one game in which they haven't won by at least 7 points, and that was the 1-point victory against TEX AM a few weeks back. Even further, OK ST is 5-1 ATS on the season with their only loss ATS coming in their opening game against UL LAF, in which they won by 27-points, but because they were -38-point favorites, they lost against the spread. On the flip side of the ball, Missouri comes into this game having destroyed IOWA ST at home last week by a score of 52-17, but they struggled in both of the two games prior to that, losing at KAN ST 24-17 and at OKLAHOMA 38-28. At home they have been very tough on the season, going 3-0 overall, and in fact have won 13 consecutive games at home, with their last loss at home taking place back in November, 2009 - to another prolific, high-scoring offense, BAYLOR, by a score of 40-32. Although their recent success at home is impressive in its own right, the problem with this year's run at home is that they really haven't played anyone anywhere near the caliber of this OK ST team. As for their recent history, these two teams last squared off in 2009, with OK ST winning 33-19 at home. The last meeting in Missouri was 2008, and OK ST also won that contest, but only by 5 points, as they outlasted the Tigers, 28-23. In their overall history, OK ST has won 3 of the L4, however, Missouri has gone 6-4 in the L10 ATS and on the ML. This game is going to take the OK ST passing game to get going in order for them to win this game, and although MISSOURI gives up a hefty 240+ YPG in the air overall, they are much better at home, allowing only 133 YPG on average. The Under is 3-1 in the history between these two teams (apparently they didn't put over/unders on their games in previous seasons), but in the L10 meetings between these two teams, they would have only hit the 69.5 total in 2 games - so against our 69.5 total, the UNDER would be 8-2 in their L10 meetings. OK ST has only played in 1 over out of their 3 games on the road, and that was against a TULSA team they beat by 36. Roll with OKLAHOMA STATE to COVER the less than a touchdown SPREAD and for this one to stay just UNDER the overinflated total..........
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (-29)
Alabama just continues to be a powerhouse no matter what way you slice it. This team is just built to win and as long as they can survive their next match-up against LSU, they have a very legitimate shot to pull off yet another undefeated season. Just to ensure this game isn't a trap game with them looking ahead to that LSU meeting, they also have the next 2 weeks to prepare for the Tigers following this game. Although we don't like to lay so many points for one team, Alabama just consistently proves that they can win and cover an overinflated spread. For the 2011 season, they are already 4-1 ATS when the spread is -25 or more, with their only ATS loss coming against North Texas, a game in which they won 41-0! In fact, they are 7-1 ATS since 2010 when the spread is -23 or more! Overall they are 6-1 ATS on the 2011 season and have dominated their opponents at home by an average score of 40-5! So far at home on the season, they have won by 34 or more points in 3 of the 4 games played in 'Bama and 41 or more points in 2 of the 4. On the other side of the ball, TENN has played fairly well so far this season, surpassing most expectations as they have started off 3-3 so far, but are coming off a blowout loss at home to LSU last week, 38-7. They have dropped 3 out of their L4 overall, but have managed to keep the other 2 defeats to GEO and FLA to 8 and 10 points respectively. 'Bama should have no trouble running the ball against this Volunteer defense, as the Tide has averaged over 255 YPG on the ground in their L3 games, while the Tenn defense has allowed an average of 182 YPG in the L3 themselves. The Volunteers should also struggle greatly to get any ground game going for their offense, as they come into the game averaging a meager 89 YPG overall on the season and 96 YPG in the L3, while the Alabama rushing defense has been dominant all season long, allowing on average, only 38 YPG on the ground for the season and an even more paltry 28 YPG in their L3 contests. That is going to put a lot of pressure on the Tennessee passing game, led by unproven senior QB Simms, who makes a second spot start in replace of injured starter Bray. And Simms has struggled in his limited action, completing less than 39% of his passes and throwing 2 INT's to go with 0 TD. That will not get the job done in Alabama against perhaps one of the most vaunted defenses in all of NCAA FB. Even further, 'Bama is 5-1-1 ATS in the L7 meetings and 6-3-1 ATS in the L10, but they are surprisingly 1-3-1 ATS at home in the L5 head-to-head battles there. However, the only time in the L10 seasons that Alabama has managed to beat TENN by as many points as this spread was last season, when they pulled off a 41-10 win in Tennessee. We think this contest should be very similar to last year's, although the Crimson Tide should be able to pile it on even more in this one with the Volunteers having no legitimate passing game or running game to depend on. Roll with ALABAMA to WIN HUGE at home......
NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (+4)
Okay so we are rolling with Northwestern for the 3rd time in 4 weeks and so far they have gone 1-1 ATS for us. Hopefully they make it 2-1 after today's home game against PENN ST. It will be a difficult task as Penn St has been playing well so far this season, going 6-1 overall in 2011 - with their only loss coming to ALA at home - and has actually owned Northwestern in recent years, going 4-0 in the L4 and winning 8 out of the L10 match-ups overall. However, Penn St has had some struggles covering the spread this season, going 1-6 ATS, and are an even worse 1-8 ATS in their L9 games dating back to 2010. Northwestern isn't much better ATS on the season, going 2-4 ATS in 2011, and have been even worse during the month of OCT in recent years, going 1-8 in their L9 games in the month. The Wildcats were fortunate to have their star QB Persa back in the lineup and we just have a feeling he is going to have a very big impact on the outcome in this one. Northwestern's offense has shown signs of life in recent weeks since his return and Penn St hasn't totally convinced us that they are as good as advertised yet - especially on the road, where they have eeked out a 14-10 victory in TEM and a 16-10 victory in IND, in their two lone games away from Pennsylvania. Penn St could also have a key injury keeping their WR Moye on the sidelines, if that happens, they really might have trouble keeping up with Persa and the passing game of the Wildcats in this one. In the L3 games since his return, the Wildcats offense has generated 277 YPG in the air, which is a significant improvement over the 220+ that they average on the season overall (with 3 G with Persa out) and the Nittany Lions also have been allowing about 50 YPG more in the air than their season average in the L3 games as well, so there could be something for Persa to exploit there. We expect this one to be a very close, tightly contested match-up, and if some things go the right way, Northwestern could even pull out a pretty nice underdog victory at home. But just to be safe, take the NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS to COVER the SPREAD as a home UNDERDOG in this one...........
WEEK #7: (6-11 / YTD: 53-40-2)
OVER 58 USC TROJANS @ CAL BEARS AND USC TROJANS ML (-150) AND USC TROJANS (-3)
USC is 9-1 against Cal on the ML in the L10 meetings, and 5-1 ATS in the L6. They are coming in off a break and are 3-1 in their career under Kiffin when coming off rest. Plus this team is a powerhouse team that can score with Barkley at the helm, and if it wasn't for Reggie Bush and the NCAA sanctions, this team would consider some talk for a BCS bowl berth. And if you were with us last week, Cal lead to our downfall by holding a 15-14 lead at the half against ORE as (+24) dogs, and they proceeded to be outscored 29-0 by Oregon in the 2nd half to turn the game into a blowout and kill our easy casher. Roll with the USC TROJANS and the OVER in this one......
SAN DIEGO STATE (+7)
SD ST is coming in off 2 tough losses against some top quality programs, dropping 27-13 to TCU at home last week and losing 28-7 at MICH about 2 weeks before that. But this team has shown that they can hang with the big boys, and although they have struggled in this head-to-head match-up, going 2-4 straight up in the L6 meetings, they did pull out a nice home victory against Air Force in 2010 in a hard-fought 27-25 game, to break AF's 3-game winning streak in the match-up. SD ST should be prepared for this one and the L2 games should prove them well and they should be able to match scores and defensive stands with AF throughout this one. If AF scores a couple early TD's though, it could be a long day. But the money says roll with SD STATE to cover the overinflated TD spread in this one.......
OVER 56.5 HAWAII WARRIORS @ SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS
HAWAII WARRIORS (-6)
NORTHWESTERN (+6.5)
UNDER 54 CLEMSON @ MARYLAND
OVER 55.5 UNLV @ WYOMING
BAYLOR BEARS (+8.5)
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (+2.5)
OVER 47.5 MICH WOLVERINES @ MICH ST SPARTANS
OVER 54.5 IOWA STATE @ MISSOURI
GEORGIA TECH (-7)
OHIO STATE (+3.5)
AUBURN (+3.5)
OVER 49 FLORIDA @ AUBURN
WEEK #6: (6-8-1 / YTD: 47-29-2)
IOWA HAWKEYES (+3.5)
OVER 55.5 UNLV REBELS @ NEVADA WOLFPACK
NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (+7.5)
OVER 49 ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS @ UTAH UTES
TEXAS LONGHORNS (+11)
INDIANA HOOSIERS (+14.5)
LSU TIGERS (-13)
OVER 63 AUBURN TIGERS @ ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS
HOUSTON COUGARS (-10) AND UNDER 73
OVER 44.5 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES @ NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (+20)
OVER 58.5 BOISE STATE @ FRESNO STATE
This game should be an absolute air attack in every sense of the word as these two teams carry in prolific offenses that can put up points in a hurry - definitely enough points to cover the total here tonight. To begin with, Boise State is still lead by Kellen Moore and he is capable of leading his offense to 50 points himself - especially in this series, as in all 3 seasons he has started against Fresno State, his team has scored over 50 points on their own! That's right - Boise State has won by scores of 51-0 (2010), 51-34 (2009) and 61-10 (2008), although the 2009 meeting was the only one held in Fresno. But that might be asking for a bit much, as this high-powered offense has yet to score more than 41 points in a single game this season. Yet their offense has been clicking on all cylinders away from home, as through 2 games on the road this season, they are averaging 500 YPG of offense with 363 of those yards coming through the air. So far on the season, Fresno St has been impressive against the pass (winning the passing battle in every game so far) and has been tough at home, allowing only 160.5 YPG in the air on average. That should be affected greatly tonight, especially considering Moore and the Broncos have won the passing battle all 3 times in this match-up, including by over 310 yards in 2010's meeting. The Bulldogs have a fairly formidable offense on their own, lead by their QB Carr, who has played very well to begin 2011, amassing almost 1300 yards with 10 TD and 4 INT, to go with a 62% completion rate. He has lead this Fresno team to at least 21 points in every game so far on the season, including 29 against a tough Nebraska D in the Huskers house. They average a slightly lower offensive YPG average while at home, but have still managed to average 381.5 yards of offense per game, with 60% of that coming through the air. On the season, the Bulldogs have gone 4-1 to the Over (1-1 at home), while Boise State has gone 1-3 against the Over (1-1 on road). I don't quite understand the number being so low for a match-up between these two teams, especially with these offenses. I expect this one to fly easily over the total, with both teams ending up going over 30 points on their own. Roll with the OVER in this one........
CAL BEARS (+24) AND UNDER 66
WEEK #5: (11-2 / YTD: 41-21-1)
WISCONSIN BADGERS (-9.5) --
OVER 55.5 NEBRASKA CORN HUSKERS @ WISCONSIN BADGERS --
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES 1ST HALF (-10.5) --
AUBURN (+10.5) --
IOWA STATE (+10) --
OVER 57 SMU @ TCU --
OVER 59 AUBURN @ SOUTH CAROLINA --
NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (+10) --
ALABAMA MONEY LINE (-170) --
OVER 65 HOUSTON COUGARS @ UTEP MINERS --
This game looks to be an explosive game full of points - like most games played by Houston are. In the L3 match-ups, these 2 teams obliterated the Over as they have had combined scores of 78, 99 and 79 in those L3 contests. The game before those 3 had 65 points scored between the two teams and in fact they have only gone Under tonight's expected total 1 time in the L6 games played against each other. These two teams play every year and they actually have 9 sets of high school teammates that will be across the sidelines from each other in tonight's game. This game means something to everyone around El Paso and the state of Texas tonight. We expect plenty more scoring in this one and this game should be much like the history between the two teams with a very high scoring affair that should blow up the total easily. We actually expect about 40+ points in the first half alone as these two teams should just air it out back and forth against each other. Take the OVER 65 in this one........
PITT PANTHERS (+2.5) --
Okay so everyone and their momma is going to be on South Florida in this game tonight - well, everyone except for us that is. I don't know why I have this strong suspicion that the Panthers are going to come out from the start in this game and control the game, and ultimately walk away with the victory in the end. It is indeed a tough task to call for, as the Panthers have blown late 4th quarter leads in their L2 games played against Notre Dame and Iowa (in Iowa). But the fact they dominated most of both of those games does give us reason to feel a little better in making this play tonight. Pitt has won the L3 meetings between these two teams and Sunseri has turned into a legitimate quarterback for Pitt who should be able to do enough to control the game for the Panthers and come away with a very hard fought, tough victory at home. I say go with PITT plus the points tonight......
UTEP MINERS (+16.5) --
The home team has won 5 of the L6 meetings between those two teams with UTEP holding the loss and going 2-1 at home over the L6 seasons against Houston at home. I just like the way these two teams match up, especially the way HOU has been playing lately against decent teams. I say roll with UTEP plus the HUGE point spread at home in this contest and watch as they hold this game close all night long........
UTAH STATE (+7.5) --
Alright, so last night we were going against the public pretty much as we rode both PITT and UTEP as a home dog to two easy victories against the spread - but today we are actually going to roll with the public as they are apparently capping this game in much the same light as we are. UTAH ST comes into this game off of a tough loss at home last week, in which they blew a 4th Qtr lead to COL ST to ultimately lose the game and destroy the betting public who had bet that game UP ALMOST 5 POINTS from its -6.5 opening line, to the final line which ended at -11!! I honestly can not remember such a line change taking place in one game and UTAH ST would have covered it, but I think they were looking ahead to this showdown late in the game and it cost them. These two teams have an intense rivalry, well as intense of a rivalry as two teams from UTAH can get anyway. BYU has absolutely dominated this series, going 9-1 in the L10 meetings between these two teams -- and against this -7.5 spread, they would have been 7-2-1 in those 10 contests! However, UTAH ST did win the game last year by 15 points - but they were at home. But they do match up well with against a BYU team that will come into the game on an extra day of rest and did have an impressive victory against UCF in their last game (at home) but they only ended up winning by 7 in the end. BYU also has a few key injuries that could have an effect on this game in the end. Although I do see several ways that BYU could win this game outright in the end, I think the safe play in this one will be to take the points against a BYU team that hasn't won a game by more than 7 points on the season yet. I say roll with UTAH STATE plus the touchdown and then some in this game.......
WEEK #4: (3-7 / YTD: 30-19-1)
CENTRAL FLORIDA (+2.5) AND OVER 44
ARKANSAS (+12) AND OVER 50.5
OVER 53.5 GEORGIA @ MISSISSIPPI
NEBRASKA HUSKERS (-21.5)
VANDERBILT (+16.5)
USC (+3) AND OVER 52.5
OREGON STATE (-5)
WEEK #3: (10-6 / YTD: 27-12)
WISCONSIN 1ST HALF (-8.5) and WISCONSIN (-16.5)
COLORADO STATE (+8)
MICHIGAN STATE (+5)
IOWA MONEY LINE (-150)
HOUSTON (-6.5)
OVER 55 WASH HUSKIES @ NEBRASKA HUSKERS
OVER 48.5 SYRACUSE ORANGE @ USC TROJANS
OKLAHOMA MONEY LINE (-150)
OVER 54.5 STANFORD CARDINAL @ ARIZONA WILDCATS
IOWA STATE (+4)
OVER 43.5 IOWA STATE @ UCONN
TOLEDO (+21)
LSU (-3.5)
OVER 50 LSU @ MISS ST
LSU MONEY LINE (-160)
WEEK #2: (7-2 / YTD: 17-6)
OVER 57 OREGON ST @ WISCONSIN
MICHIGAN (+3.5)
WISCONSIN (-21)
WASHINGTON STATE (-13)
OVER 52 SO CAROLINA @ GEORGIA
SOUTH CAROLINA (-2.5)
OVER 53 MIZZOU @ ASU
MISSOURI (+9)
ARIZONA WILDCATS (+13.5)
WEEK #1: (10-4-1 / YTD: 10-4-1)
USC TROJANS (-22.5)
OVER 51 MINN GOPHERS @ USC TROJANS
1ST HALF: MICH WOLVERINES (-7)
HOU COUGARS (-3) AND MONEY LINE (-150)
1ST HALF: ALA CRIM TIDE (-21)
ORE DUCKS MONEY LINE (-160)
OVER 49.5 WAKE FOREST @ SYRACUSE
UNLV REBELS (+35) AND OVER 56
WAKE FOREST (+6.5)
BAYLOR BEARS (+4) AND OVER 53.5
WEST VIRGINIA (-22)
OVER 45.5 MIAMI HURRICANES @ MARYLAND TERRAPINS