2011 NFL SEASON - PLAY-BY-PLAY BREAKDOWN
This is our complete PLAY-BY-PLAY BREAKDOWN for the 2011 NFL SEASON!! As you can clearly see -- it has been ANOTHER MONSTER SEASON so far!!
WEEK #1: (10-1 / YTD: 10-1)
MINN VIKINGS (+9)
OVER 41 DET LIONS @ TB BUCCANEERS
DET LIONS (+1.5)
OVER 43.5 PHI EAGLES @ STL RAMS
OVER 41.5 MINN VIKINGS @ SD CHARGERS
OVER 37 CAR PANTHERS @ AZ CARDINALS
GB PACKERS (-4) AND OVER 47.5
NE PATRIOTS (-7) AND OVER 45
OVER 40 OAK RAIDERS @ DEN BRONCOS
WEEK #2: (9-3-1 / YTD: 19-4-1)
NY GIANTS (-6.5) AND OVER 43.5
BUFFALO BILLS (-3.5) AND MONEY LINE (-170)
CHI BEARS (+7)
OVER 45 KC CHIEFS @ DET LIONS
DALLAS COWBOYS (-3) AND OVER 42.5
OVER 52.5 SD CHARGERS @ NE PATRIOTS
OVER 42.5 OAK RAIDERS @ BUFF BILLS )
HOU TEXANS (-3) AND UNDER 48
MINN VIKINGS ML (-145)
WEEK #3: (10-3 / YTD: 29-7-1)
WASH REDSKINS (+5)
OVER 45 WASH @ DALL
DALLAS COWBOYS MONEY LINE (-170)
BUFFALO BILLS (+8)
PHI EAGLES (-7.5)
SD CHARGERS 1st Half (-8)
CAR PANTHERS (-3.5) AND MONEY LINE (-180)
MINN VIKINGS (+3.5)
OVER 40.5 SF 49`ERS @ CIN BENGALS
OVER 52.5 HOU TEXANS @ NO SAINTS
TB BUCS (-1.5) AND MONEY LINE (-120)
WEEK #4: (7-4 / YTD: 36-11-1)
UNDER 40.5 TB BUCCANEERS @ IND COLTS
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+10.5)
OVER 44.5 BUFFALO BILLS @ CIN BENGALS
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+3.5)
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3.5)
DETROIT LIONS (+2.5)
SAN FRANCISCO 49'ERS (+9)
OVER 44 WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ ST LOUIS RAMS
OVER 47 DETROIT LIONS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
UNDER 45 MIA DOLPHINS @ SD CHARGERS
OVER 55 NE PATRIOTS @ OAK RAIDERS
WEEK #5: (7-9 / YTD: 43-18-1)
DET LIONS (-6.5) AND OVER 48
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-2.5)
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES MONEY LINE (-145)
OAKLAND RAIDERS (+5.5) AND MONEY LINE (+215)
NEW YORK GIANTS (-9)
ATL FALCONS (+6.5) AND OVER 54.5
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3) AND MINNESOTA VIKINGS MONEY LINE (-140)
NEW YORK JETS (+7.5)
OVER 45 AZ CARDINALS @ MIN VIKINGS
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 1ST HALF (-.5)
OVER 52.5 PHI EAGLES @ BUFF BILLS
SAN FRANCISCO 49'ERS MONEY LINE (-140)
WEEK #6: (11-4 / YTD: 54-22-1)
1ST HALF: NY JETS (-4)
NEW YORK JETS (-7)
SAN FRANCISCO 49'ERS (+4)
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7)
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 1ST HALF (-7)
DALLAS COWBOYS (+6.5) AND UNDER 54.5
OVER 45 SF 49'ERS @ DET LIONS
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+3)
ATLANTA FALCONS MONEY LINE (-180)
OVER 50 BUFF BILLS @ NY GIANTS
UNDER 50 NO SAINTS @ TB BUCCANEERS
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+3) AND OVER 41
WEEK #7: (7-3-1 / YTD: 61-25-2)
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+10) AND OVER 38.5
Okay, so apparently the entire world is rolling with the Ravens in this game tonight, so much so that the line has jumped up 2.5 points from -7.5 to the currently inflated -10 spread. Yes, the Ravens have absolutely dominated this match-up historically in every way, as Baltimore has gone 7-1 on the ML in the L8 meetings, including 2-1 in Jax in the L3 meetings. However, Jacksonville has been slightly better ATS going 2-5-1 in those L8 games. When we look deeper in the stats though, it shows a significant reason as to why we should definitely feel comfortable rolling with the Jags in tonight's game with the high point spread -- as despite the Ravens blowout of the Jaguars in their last contest back in 2008, 27-7, that was the only time in the L10 meetings the Ravens have won by more than 7 points. Two other games were Ravens wins by 7 exactly, and the rest are Ravens victories by 3 or 5 points, with the rest being victories by the Jags outright. However, again the last time they played was 2008 though, so these are vastly different squads. But the Jags pulled off a pretty decent game last week, when they scored 13 unanswered points in the 2nd half in PITT - despite going into halftime trailing 17-0 - to at least make the game look close in the box-score, losing 17-13. But they showed that they can play competitively against some of the tougher teams in the league, even on the road. Although the Steelers aren't necessarily the same team this year either, they are still always one of the toughest teams to beat at home. The Jags are a measly 2-4 ATS this season so far, and have dropped both games (one at home) when they were dogs by 9 points. The Ravens have been rolling and this could be their year, as they enter this game 5-1 overall on the year, and an even more impressive 5-1 ATS in 2011. They have yet to play a close game this season as all 5 of their victories were decided by at least 14 points, and their one loss was even a 13-point blowout to TENN. They are 2-1 on the road so far, with a 14-point W in ATL and a 30-point W in STL, to go along with the 13-point loss in TENN. Despite the stats suggesting otherwise, we have to say roll with the JAGUARS to COVER the inflated spread and for this one to eek OVER the low total........
NY JETS (-1)
ATL FALCONS (+4)
CAR PANTHERS (-1.5)
DALL COWBOYS 1ST HALF (-7)
DEN BRONCOS (+1)
AZ CARDINALS (+3.5)
SEA SEAHAWKS (+3)
UNDER 44 CHI BEARS @ TB BUCCANEERS
OVER 41 SEA SEAHAWKS @ CLE BROWNS
WEEK #8: (7-7 / YTD: 68-32-2)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (+3) AND UNDER 44.5
This play defies recent history between these two teams as SD is 7-1 ML in the L8 and 8-2 ML in the L10, but KC has covered the spread in 2-out-of-3 at home in this match-up. The Chiefs are coming in off of a 28-0 shellacking of the upstart Raiders, while the Chargers come in off a tough loss at the NY JETS, in which they led 21-10 at the half and were shut out for the 2nd half. The Chargers have also been struggling all season long ATS, as they come into the game 2-4 ATS on the season. The Chiefs have been red hot as of late as well, winning 3 in a row overall and covering the spread in 4 straight. Also, these 2 teams have failed to reach tonight's total in 8 of the L10 meetings since 2006. Roll with the CHIEFS as the home team underdog in this one........
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 1ST HALF (-7.5) AND NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-13)
The Saints should continue to roll in this one as they come in off that monster 55-point blowout win against IND on Sunday Night football, 62-7. Bradford is OUT for the Rams and their offense should be extremely limited with Feeley behind center. The Saints come into this game playing extremely well this season, going 5-1 overall in their L6 and 4-2 ATS in that span, although they are 1-2 ATS in their L3 games. On the road in 2011, they are a pretty putrid 1-3 ATS in 4 games, including losses at TB and GB. However, all of those games were on grass and this is indoors in STL. The Saints play much better indoors, going 3-0 ATS and ML at home this season on turf. When indoors, their offense has clicked on all cylinders as they have score at least 30 points in all 3 games, with 2 of those games going over 40 points themselves. There really shouldn't be much hope for the Rams in this one, as they have gone 0-6 ATS and ML so far this season and they come into this game having been outscored 58-10 in their L2 games in DAL and GB. At home they are 0-3 and have been crushed in all 3 games, being outscored 85-30 against PHI, NYG and WAS. On offense the Saints have been virtually unstoppable lately, averaging nearly 485 YPG of offense in their L3, while the Rams defense has allowed a bloated 395 YPG of offense in their L3. Most of that damage has been done in the ground game with the Rams defense allowing nearly 200 YPG of rushing offense in the L3. NO has been efficient in the ground game over their L3, averaging about 135 YPG rushing. Roll with the NO SAINTS to COVER THE SPREAD in both the 1ST HALF and the GAME in this one........
BALTIMORE RAVENS 1ST HALF (-7)
A few different reasons why we love this play here: One, the Ravens have been playing lights out pretty much all season so far, especially at home. Two, the Cardinals come in from the West Coast with the dreaded early 10 AM start in this one - meaning it will be essentially 10 AM for them when the Cardinals kick off today in BAL, based on the time difference. And lastly, not too mention, the extremely ugly MNF game against JAX last week in which the Ravens were embarrassed, 12-7. The Ravens should be ready to roll in this one and although we do think they will probably blow out AZ in this one, due to the potential of a back door cover, we will jump on the RAVENS in the 1ST HALF to jump out to about a 10-point lead here........
HOUSTON TEXANS 1ST HALF (-6.5)
Okay, so we are obviously rolling with some 1st half plays on today's ticket, but in our opinion they present the best available potential for CASHERS today. The Jaguars should be feeling good coming into this one having stopped BAL at home on MNF by a score of 12-7, but they are facing a Texans team that should be coming into this one with a little bit of momentum on their side as well. The Texans showed up HUGE last SUN, blowing out TENN in Nashville by a score of 41-7. They completely dominated every facet of the game and ended up out-gaining the Titans by 370 yards in total offense. They return home for this one where they have played decently so far, going 2-1 ATS and ML when playing in Texas. Jacksonville has been competitive on the road in 2011, but they come into this one 1-2 ATS and ML on the road. They are an identical 1-2 ATS in the 1st Half in their 3 road games in 2011 as well. Go with the TEXANS to COVER THE SPREAD in this one......
OVER 41.5 DETROIT LIONS @ DENVER BRONCOS
This one has actually dropped a half point on the total, but we liked the over from the minute the lines were released this week. The Lions have gone 3-0 for the Under in their L3 games and come into this one averaging just over 17 PPG in those contests. As the whole world watched in amazement again last week, the wonder kid, Tebow led the Broncos to a thrilling come from behind 18-15 victory against MIA. However, Dumervil is out for this one, which should open up the front line a little more and allow Stafford time to find his biggest weapon Johnson once or twice for an easy score. Tebow will either have this Broncos team pumped up and ready to go for this one and they will come out blazing, or there is always the potential of him leading his team to another thrilling come from behind win, so we will lay off any other play in this one. But everything seems to line up for an Over here, as both of these teams should be able to put at least 20 points on the board. Let's hope it's not a 24-17 game and take the OVER here..........
CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5) AND CAROLINA PANTHERS MONEY LINE (-170)
The Vikings enter this contest an abysmal 1-6 on the season, while the Panthers aren't much better at 2-5, but we'll roll with the stud rookie quarterback, well, at least the one playing at home anyway. The home team is 4-0 in the L4 and 7-2 in the L9 on the ML in this match-up, with the Panthers also going 2-0 ATS and ML in the only 2 meetings played in CAR. They also are 4-2 ATS and ML in their L6 match-ups and we expect this one to be much the same. Ponder will get his second big test with his first career road game today, and the Vikings are going to need to do better than their 1-2 ATS and ML showing on the road so far in 2011, with some pathetic losses to CHI and KC. The big difference is McNabb was under center for those, so we may be way off in this one. But we say go with the CAROLINA PANTHERS to COVER the SPREAD AND to WIN THE GAME outright in this one......
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3) AND PHILADELPHIA EAGLES MONEY LINE (-165) AND UNDER 51
To begin with these two teams haven't played to an Over in PHI since 2008 and have totaled fewer than 51 points in 5 of their L6 meetings and 7 of their L10 match-ups overall. Their L3 meetings in PHI have totaled 27, 36 and 50 points respectively. On the 2011 season, the Cowboys have been scoring points, but surprisingly have played to the Under at a clip of 3-1 in the L4. Also, they have had 2 games on the season play to a total of 51 points exactly, and only one other game go over that total. PHI has only has 2 games this season with more than 51 total combined points between them and their opponent, so the easy money might be on the Under in this one. As for the Eagles, they have convinced us enough in recent weeks to have us back on their bandwagon and we expect them to perform off the bye as they usually do under Coach Reid - as they are 4-1 ATS in their L5 after a bye week. Roll with the EAGLES to COVER the SPREAD and WIN the GAME and for this game to eek UNDER the total.......
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+2) AND OVER 37.5
The Seahawks have been a nice little money-maker at home so far on the 2011 season, going 2-0 ATS and 1-1 on the ML as a decent underdog and face off against a tough CIN teams that is 3-0 ATS and 2-1 ML on the road so far this season. They are 3-0 in their L3 games and coming in off the bye might be a tough team to go against here. But Dalton will be facing the NFL's toughest crowd and perhaps his toughest challenge against the Hawks in this one. Take SEATTLE to COVER the less than FG SPREAD and for this game to go OVER the puny total......
WEEK #9: (7-8 / YTD: 75-40-2)
NEW YORK GIANTS (+9)
The Giants come into this game, on a roll, as they have gone 5-1 ML in their L6 games and 3-2-1 ATS, although they were the favorite in all but 1 of those games. They were a +9 point underdog at Philly earlier this season and responded by pulling off a 13-point victory. In the history of this match-up, only 2 out of the 7 games have been decided by more than 3 points and that was by 11 back in 2003 and 7 back in 1987. Take the NY GIANTS as an easy underdog casher in this one..........
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3) AND PITTSBURGH STEELERS MONEY LINE (-165)
This one should be an easy casher for the Steelers as they will be looking to avenge that week 1 blowout loss in BAL and they have been on a roll in recent weeks, while Baltimore has continued to struggle somewhat. The Steelers are now 6-1 ML in their L7 games, and have been winning in convincing fashion and have only had one victory all season by less than 4 points (23-20 vs. IND). Roll with the STEELERS to WIN the GAME and to also COVER the SPREAD in this one..........
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+8.5) AND UNDER 50.5
Okay, so we are probably on repeat with this game, as we just picked up 2 CASHERS when these two teams met in TB about 3 weeks ago as we hit on both the Bucs and the Under in that one. And based on their history, we are rolling with it again in this one today. The Bucs come in well rested having not played in 2 weeks, since their loss to the Bears in London and are probably chomping at the bit to get back on the field, especially as such huge underdogs. The Saints killed us last week, dropping 2 plays for us on both the first half and the game, as they were destroyed by a bumbling Rams team in STL, and only today will tell if that was just an anomaly, or if the Saints really have cause for concern. But as for today's game, these two teams have played to the UNDER at a clip of 6-0 in their L6 meetings since 2008, and in the L10 meetings overall and L4 meetings in NO, they have actually only hit 50 points one time, and they landed right on the number. In the 4 contests in NO since 2007, they have combined to average 41.5 points while playing in the Superdome. The Bucs have actually had a lot of success in the history of this match-up as well, going 3-1 ATS and ML in the L4 meetings and 6-4 ML in the L10 match-ups overall since 2005. They are surprisingly 3-1 ATS and ML in the L4 meetings in NO. TB has also been a consistent casher on the road in recent seasons, going 15-5-1 ATS in their L21 road games overall and the Underdog is also 13-6 ATS in the L19 meetings between these two teams. This should be an easy casher on both ends. Take the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS to COVER the SPREAD and for this one to easily stay UNDER the inflated total........
SAN FRANCISCO 49'ERS MONEY LINE (-180)
As everybody and their momma knows by now, the 49'ers are legit. They are unstoppable this season and come into this game, 6-0-1 ATS and 6-1 ML on the 2011 season so far, and actually haven't lost ATS since the day after Christmas last season. This line does seem a bit fishy being so low, but chalk it up to the odds-makers trying to entice bettors to find a reason to go with the Redskins today. The Skins are horrible lately. They come into this one 1-4 ML in their L5 and 0-3 ATS in their L3 games. At home in 2011, they are also 1-2 ATS in 3 games played there so far. They come into this one having been shutout last week by the Bills, 23-0, which was the first time they have been shutout since 2009 on MNF against the Cowboys. The Skins are hurting and their roster is depleted as Cooley, Moss, Hightower and a whole list of names are out for this game, leaving the Skins to depend on second-tier players to fill in the blanks. Go with the 49'ERS on the MONEY LINE........
NEW YORK JETS (+3) AND OVER 44
Alright, we are fully aware that this line has moved 2 points as it opened at -1 for the Bills at home, and apparently everyone is rolling with the Bills in this one, but I like our chances with the Jets coming in off a bye, despite being 0-2 ML and ATS off the bye in Ryan's career at their helm. The Jets have owned the Bills in recent match-ups, going 5-1 ML and 4-2 ATS in their L6 meetings since Nov, 2008. In Buffalo, it has actually been much the same as the Jets have gone 4-1 ATS and ML in Northern NY since 2006, and their only loss there in that span was by a score of 17-14. In fact, the Jets only loss in the L6 overall meetings was a 3-point loss in OT as well, although that one was at home and was all the way back in October of 2009. The Jets have struggled on the road in 2011, going 0-3 ATS and ML in their 3 games away from home and this game doesn't expect to be any easier. The Bills have been extremely impressive at home going 4-0 ML and 3-1 ATS, but this should be only one of 2 games that will pose a threat for a loss for them at home, in regards to their remaining schedule, so this should be a good spot to take the rested Jets. If the explosiveness of the younger Bills doesn't immediately run the Jets off the field, this one will come down to coaching in the end. I will back Ryan over Gailey every day of the week, especially with 2 weeks to prepare. As for the OVER, they have played to over today's total in both of their L2 match-ups and at a clip of 3-2 in their L5 meetings overall. In 2011, the Jets have played to the Over at a clip of 5-2, while the Bills have gone 6-1 for the Over in their 7 games on the season. Jump on the JETS as a FG road dog and for this game to easily hit the OVER.........
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+3) AND OVER 41.5
The Bengals have been money all season and have been a consistent play for most sharps every week. We haven't had as much faith with them, but have cashed in a few times on the season with them and this game seems like it has potential to pick up another casher with them. For starters, the Bengals come into this game 8-0 in their L8 games against the AFC overall. In 2011, they have been playing extremely well, going 6-1 ATS and 5-2 ML, and looking even further it becomes more impressive when you see their two losses were by 5 and 2 points respectively. They are also 3-0 ATS when labeled as the Underdog in 2011 so far, while the Titans come into the game 1-2 ATS when playing the favorite. The Titans have struggled against quality teams so far this season, losing to PIT and HOU by 56 points combined. They did whoop up on the Ravens in Week 2 at home, 26-13, but that was back in week 2 and was the week after the Ravens destroyed the Steelers and could probably be attributed to an emotional letdown. As for the Over play in this one, CIN has played to the over at a clip of 4-0 in the L4 games and 6-1 on the season overall, while the Titans have hit the Over to a record of 4-3. The Bengals have only had one game all season in which they didn't score 20+ points, while the Titans have had one team score at least 27 points in 5 of their 7 games this season. In their L3 games the Bengals are averaging just over 30 PPG, while the Titans have been allowing 29+ PPG in that same 3 game span. Take the BENGALS to COVER the SPREAD and for this one to go OVER the total.........
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-4) AND KANSAS CITY CHIEFS MONEY LINE (-200) AND UNDER 40.5
The Chiefs have been on a major tear as of late, rebounding from an 0-3 start to win their next 4 games and now sit above .500 at 4-3 on the season. And as you can see we are rolling with them in every way here. The Chiefs apparently flipped a switch a few weeks back, as they have suddenly gone 4-0 ML and are an even better 5-0 ATS in their L5 games in 2011. During their current streak, they have won by an average MOV of 10 points, but that is largely askew based on a 28-0 shutout of the Raiders in Oak. They have won the other 3 games by 3, 4 and 5 points respectively - so it is tough to really say how much they will win this game by today. The Dolphins are a surprising 7-3 ML in the L10 meetings between these two teams, and 2-0 in the L2, but they haven't played since 2008 and half of those L10 games were in the 90's. KC is 2-1 ATS and ML at home in the L10 since 1991. The Dolphins have had an abysmal start to their season at 0-7 ML and not much better at 1-5-1 ATS so far in 2011, but they have been even worse within the conference, going 0-7-1 in the L8 against AFC opponents. They are also a dreadful 1-8-1 ATS in their L10 games, dating back to last season. At home in 2011, the Chiefs are 2-1 ATS and 2-1 ML and are coming in on a 2-0 ATS and ML streak at home. Although this will be only the second time all season they will be playing the role of favorite and they have gone 0-1 ATS in that role so far, the Dolphins are 0-5-1 ATS on the season when underdogs of a TD or less, and in fact are 0-8-1 ATS in their L9 in that same role and 2-10-1 ATS in their L13 as a dog of a TD or less. As for the Under, the Dolphins come into this one having played in 6 straight UNDERS, and have played to a clip of 6-1 for the UNDER on the season overall. In 5 of their 7 games in 2011, the two teams have combined to score a measly 37 points or less. The Chiefs have been playing on much the same scale, as they have played to the UNDER at a clip of 4-1 in their L5 games. These two teams are a combined 5-0 for the UNDER when the total has been set at 40-41.5 points in one of their games this season. If you are looking for the upset special in this one and for the Dolphins to get off the schnide today, it just isn't going to happen. Not this week. Roll with the CHIEFS to WIN the game and COVER THE SPREAD and for this one to stay UNDER the total........
CHICAGO BEARS (+8)
UNDER 47 CHICAGO BEARS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
WEEK #10: (8-10 / YTD: 83-50-2)
NEW YORK JETS (-1.5) AND NEW YORK JETS MONEY LINE (-120)
CHICAGO BEARS (-2.5) AND OVER 43.5
DALLAS COWBOYS (-5.5) AND OVER 48
NEW YORK GIANTS (+4)
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-4)
PITTSBURGH STEELERS MONEY LINE (-170)
UNDER 46.5 TENNESSEE TITANS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
ATLANTA FALCONS (-1) AND UNDER 49.5
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 1ST HALF (+7.5) AND MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+13.5) AND UNDER 50.5
Alright, so we admit there may be a few of you out there scratching your heads and saying, "The Vikings? Really?" -- but yes the Vikings really. First off, the Vikings have actually been a great first half team all season long. They even led this same GB team at the half about 3 weeks ago in Ponder's first NFL start, 17-13. They did eventually drop that game 33-27 but did easily cover the +10 point spread. The Vikings are also coming in off their bye week, which should give Ponder an extra week to be prepared for this start. Minnesota also still has the best running back in the game with Peterson carrying the ball and they are always a threat to be competitive in every game and should easily stay within 2 TD's in this one. But that should be largely thanks to their defense, which has the league's leading sacker in Allen - who did have 2 sacks on Rogers in that Week 6 match-up - and should be helped in the secondary with the return of Winfield in tonight. And the Vikings are currently 2-2 ATS on the road in 2011, but they have only had one loss that was by more than 7 points all season long in any stadium (home or away) and that was in McNabb's last game started versus Chicago. I know, I know - but this is the Packers. Although GB has won the L3 meetings overall, the two teams have split the L6. Both are also 3-3 ATS in that span and 2 of the L3 Packers wins were by 6 or less. In fact, these games have been within 14 points or less at a clip of 8-2 in the L10 meetings between them. The Underdog is only 4-6 ATS in the L10, but they are 18-7 ATS in the L27 meetings. And the road team is currently on a 13-6 ATS run in its L19 games against each other. The Vikings are currently 3-1-1 ATS as road underdogs and are also 1-1 ATS and ML in the L2 meetings in GB, earning a 38-26 win there in November of 2009. However, they are 2-3 ATS and 1-4 ML at Lambeau since 2006, but only one loss (2007) was by more than today's spread, while the other 4 losses were by 4, 5 and 2 points respectively. The Under is 3-1 in the 4 Vikings road games in 2011 and is 7-1 in their L8 games overall, while the Packers are 3-4 for the Under in their L7 overall in 2011, but are 1-3 for the Under in their 4 home games this season. Roll with the MINNESOTA VIKINGS to COVER the 1ST HALF and the GAME SPREADS and for this one to stay UNDER the total.........
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-7) AND SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 1ST HALF (-4.5) AND OVER 47.5
The Chargers are definitely our play tonight as they come into this game 0-2 ML and ATS in the L2 meetings between these two teams (after the OAK sweep of them last season) but on the bright side, they are 8-2 ML and 5-5 ATS in the L10 match-ups overall. They come in angry and will be looking to avenge last season's loss at home, and besides that loss, they are 4-0 ML in the previous 4 games in SD and have won those 4 games by an average score of 14 points. Although these two teams historically play in lower scoring games against each other, especially in San Diego, as they have gone over tonight's total at a clip of 1-9 in the L10 meetings and 0-5 in San Diego, the Raiders did score 28 points here last season, and this is the stadium where the Packers and Chargers combined to score 83 points the other night. Also the Raiders offense did appear to click a little better last week as they managed to put 24 points on the board and Carson Palmer will be another week into their system. We expect the Raiders to get into the 20's again tonight, but this one should be a blowout for the Chargers in the end. Roll with the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS to COVER THE SPREAD in the 1ST HALF AND GAME and for this one to go well OVER the total...........
WEEK #11: (10-7 / YTD: 93-57-2)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+14)
The Bucs come into this match-up with the highest odds on the boards for the day, and we all know how that worked out last week for Arizona. I don't think the Bucs necessarily pull off an upset here - we do have one coming for the Packers soon though - but this one should be close enough to cover this massive spread in the end. TB has been surprisingly impressive in recent meetings between these two teams, going 8-3-1 ATS in their L12 match-ups, although the last time they faced off was in 2009. In the L3 meetings, the Bucs are actually 3-0 ML and 2-1 ATS and are also 6-3-1 ATS and 7-3 ML in the L10 meetings since 1999. The Bucs have also been red hot in recent road games, going 12-3-1 ATS in the L16 games away from home overall, although that includes a disappointing 1-2 ATS on the road in 2011 (1-3 ATS if you count their "home" game in London against the Bears). The Bucs are in a bit of a tailspin of late, dropping 3 straight and going 1-4 ML in the L5 and 1-5 ATS in their L6 games. Go with the highest odds on the board for the second straight week and take TAMPA BAY to COVER the two TD SPREAD in this one......
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+3)
The Seahawks have absolutely owned this series, going 9-1 ML in the L10 meetings and 7-1 ATS in the L8 match-ups between these two teams since 2006. The Hawks are also 3-1 ATS and 3-1 ML in the L4 meetings in STL, although Bradford did lead the Rams to their only victory at home last season with a 20-3 beat-down in the dome. But the Seahawks have also been rolling recently going 5-1-1 ATS in their L7 overall in 2010 and are coming off last week's upset shocker of the Ravens at home, 22-17. They are only 1-4 ML on the road this season, but they have gone 2-2-1 ATS in those 5 road contests - although both covers were also double-digit underdogs. The Rams come into this one also playing better in recent weeks, going 2-1 ML in their L3 with a home victory over the Saints in that mix 3 weeks ago. They have also gone 2-1 ATS in that span, but they have been a very disappointing 2-7 ATS on the season overall so far. This is the first time all season they have actually been given favorite status - so no real help there - but in their 4 games at home, they are 1-3 ATS and ML and are being crushed by an average of 18 PPG in their 3 losses. This one should be tight throughout and history clearly suggest that SEA will end up the victor in the end. Roll with the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS to COVER the SPREAD as a small dog here......
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+6)
CAROLINA PANTHERS (+7) AND OVER 47.5
Panthers are 8-2-2 ATS as an underdog in their L12 in that role. Detroit is 1-3 ATS and ML in their L4 overall. Carolina is also 4-0 ML in the L4 meetings, although Detroit is 4-1 ATS in the 5 career match-ups between these two clubs. Newton has started out 0-3 ML on the road in his young career, although only one of those losses was by more than 7 points. This one should be a high scoring affair decided by 6 points or less. We are thinking a 30-24 Lions win in this one. Roll with the PANTHERS to COVER the SPREAD as the TD underdog and for this one to go OVER the total......
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+7.5)
Something is just screaming at us to make this play as the Redskins have either won outright or lost by less than a TD in 9 of the L10 match-ups between these two teams since 2006, including a loss earlier this season in Dallas, 18-16. The Skins are also 8-2 ATS in the L10 meetings as well. They have played decently at home, despite their 2-2 ML and 1-3 ATS record, with losses of 7 and 8 points to PHI and SF respectively. Roll with WASHINGTON to COVER the SPREAD at home again here.......
OAKLAND RAIDERS (+1)
This line has gone up and down since it opened, from -1 to Pick and back to -1 for the Vikings, but I just can't see the Vikings walking out of here with the win today. The Raiders are coming in off last Thursday's huge victory over San Diego, in which they shut down Rivers in virtually every aspect in his home stadium on a prime-time game. The Vikings are coming off a prime-time game of their own, albeit to much different results, as they were completely embarrassed by GB on Monday night, 45-7. By now, everyone knows the Vikings have been horrible all season long, going 2-7 ML and 4-4-1 ATS on the 2011, what most might not know is how impressive OAK has been on the road so far. The Raiders are currently 4-0 ATS and 3-1 ML in their 4 road games in 2011, with wins in SD, HOU and DEN and a 3-point loss to BUFF in which they came back from being down 21 at the half. The Raiders have been a dog in all 4 of those covers on the road and are an even better 5-0 ATS when listed as an underdog on the year and are 6-0 ATS as a dog in their L6 dating back to 2010. The Vikings have been equally disappointing at home this season, going 1-3 ML and 2-1-1 ATS in their 4 home games, and they are 1-2 ATS when labeled as the favorite on the spread. Palmer has had 10 more days to get acquainted with this new offense and despite a few key injuries (McFadden is out) the Raiders should have enough to squeak away with a victory in this one. Go with the OAKLAND RAIDERS to WIN this one and stay perfect on the road today.......
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+7.5) AND UNDER 40.5
The Bengals have been a solid surprise all season long and have been covering the spread with ease in 2011. They are 5-1 ATS in their L6 games and 7-2 ATS in their 9 total games this season and are actually 5-1 ML in their L6 as well, with last week's TD loss against PITT at home. On the road in 2011, they have been awesome, going 5-0 ATS and 4-1 ML in their 5 games away from home, but none of those games were quite against the quality of team as the Ravens are at home. However, in their 3 losses on the season so far, the Bengals have yet to lose by more than 7 points in a game and with Lewis out for the Ravens today, I expect them to stay within that spread again in this one. The Ravens haven't necessarily been crushing the competition lately either, as they are 1-3 ATS and 2-2 ML in their L4 games overall, including an 0-3 ATS and 1-2 ML record against the likes of cupcake competition such as SEA, AZ and JAX in that same span. They are 3-1 ATS and 4-0 ML at home on the season so far, but the last time they covered there was over a month ago. In the head-to-head battle, CIN is 4-0 ATS and 3-1 ML in the L4 meetings between the two clubs and 7-2 ATS and 6-3 ML in the L9 match-ups between them overall. They are also 3-1 ATS and 2-2 ML in the L4 meetings in BAL. As for the Under, this match-up has historically played to the Under, as these two teams have combined to score less than 40 points in 8 of their L9 match-ups and they have played to an Under at a clip of 7-2 in the L9 meetings overall - but again, 8-1 for the Under in the L9 match-ups against today's total of 40.5. They have played to the Under at a clip of 4-0 in the L4 meetings in BAL, scoring combined totals of 20, 31, 27 and 28 in their L4 meetings there. Even with Lewis out, this one just smells like an Under. Roll with the BENGALS to COVER the SPREAD in this one and for this one to stay UNDER today's total.......
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (+4.5) AND OVER 45
The Chargers are coming in off 10 days rest and are in desperation mode and should be ready to pick up a victory in this one despite the several injuries and lack of effective play that has plagued them in recent weeks. Rivers has gone from one of the biggest go-to guys in the clutch, to absolutely falling apart before our eyes. This guy was statistically the best QB for 3 years running until 2010 and has suddenly become the newest Ryan Leaf in San Diego. But again, the Chargers are in desperation mode and should have enough to get this one done today. Although the Chargers have flushed themselves nearly out of playoff contention as of late, going 0-4 ML and ATS in their L4 games on the season, they have stayed within a TD in each one and had a chance to win each one in the final minutes as well. The extra days of rest should help them be better prepared for this smoking hot Bears team ultimately due for a letdown and might not be able to keep up offensively with this Chargers team in the end. The Bears have been absolutely rolling, going 4-0 ML in their L4 and 5-1 ML in their L6 overall. They are also 4-0 ATS and 5-1 ATS in that same span too. They have put 30+ points on the board in 4 of those 6 games themselves. Although I can see a Chargers upset here, I do expect the Bears to win the game. But in the end, this game will have both teams in the 20's for points and one team walking away the winner by 3 points or less in my opinion. Roll with the CHARGERS as dogs here and for this one to go OVER.......
ARIZONA CARDINALS (+10) AND OVER 41
Okay so the 49'ers are the hottest team in the NFL not in Wisconsin, as they have gone 7-0 ATS and ML in their L7 and are 8-0-1 ATS on the season overall. They are also 8-0 ATS in their L8 games as the favorite and 7-0-1 ATS in their L8 games versus NFC opponents. They also are 5-0 ATS in the L5 meetings and 4-0 ML in the L4 contests between these two clubs. So why would we go with the Cardinals here? Well, for starters, the road team is also 9-2 ATS in the L11 meetings and the Underdog is 7-3 ATS in the L10. Arizona is also 3-2 ATS in the L5 match-ups in SF, although they have gone 0-2 ATS and ML there since 2009 with the average MOV of 28 points for SF in those 2 games. But the Cardinals are also coming in off two straight momentum-building victories: first with the punt return TD to beat STL in OT 2 weeks ago and then last week's closing minutes upset special in Philadelphia. They have played tough on the road all season long, going 3-2 ATS in their 5 road games in 2011 and despite being a paltry 1-4 ML away from home, they have only lost one of those games by more than 3 points, losing in BAL and SEA by 3 and in WAS by 1 (also in MIN by 24). And although SF has been on that huge ATS run lately, they actually haven't been beating people by more than today's spread. The 49'ers have only won 1 game in their L8 by more than 10 points. The Cardinals should be safe with this massive spread again today. Jump on the CARDINALS as a huge underdog and for this one to go OVER the total here.......
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-17) AND OVER 47
Take note, tonight's NFL game was a difficult game to cap. The Patriots are 3-15 ATS in their L18 games as favorites of 10.5 or more and the Chiefs are 11-2 ATS in their L13 as dogs of 10.5 or more. However, in the only game so far this season the Chiefs were absolutely dominated in the passing game was at Detroit in Week 2 and we fully expect that here tonight. The Chiefs were out gained by 208 yards in the air in that game and lost 48-3. We expect Palko to have a lot of problems tonight against the Patriots D coming in high off of last week's beat-down of the NYJ in which they registered 5 sacks. There has only been 2 times all season Brady and the Pats have out-passed their opponents by over 100+ yards and those were 9-point and 14-point victories against division rivals Jets and Dolphins. The Patriots should explode in the passing game tonight and we expect them to put up over 40+ points on the board themselves, or very close to it. Roll with the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS and for this one to go OVER the total.......
DENVER BRONCOS (+6) AND OVER 40
WEEK #12: (10-9 / YTD: 103-66-2)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7) AND OVER 51 AND NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 1ST HALF (-4)
Alright so first glance might suggest a play on the Giants here as nice sized underdogs in a must win situation on prime-time. The Giants just seem too easy, especially considering they could be severely lacking in the running game and they are facing a Saints team coming off their bye week. The Saints are actually 2-0 ATS and ML in the L2 seasons at home in their week off the bye, with a huge win over SEA, 34-19 as -11 point favorites, last season and a pounding of the Giants the year before, 48-27 as -3.5 faves, in 2009. The Saints have been nearly amazing at home this season as well, going 4-0 ATS and ML, including twice as higher spreads than tonight's, and have averaged 37 PPG in their 4 home contests this season. That is thanks much largely on their 62-7 thrashing of the Colts back in Week 7, but they have scored at least 27 points in all 4 home games and 3 of the 4 have been 30+. There last two games in the Superdome have been against suspect competition in the Bucs and Colts, but they have handled them both by 10 plus points. Their other 2 home games were against the # 1 AFC seed HOU back in Week 3 - they won 40-33 - and against a probable playoff bound CHI the week before - they won that one easily, 30-13. The Saints are also 3-1 ATS when they are favored by anything more than 6.5 this season. The Giants on the other hand appear to be in the midst of another late season swoon and have lost by at least 7 points or more in every loss this season. However, they are a dreadful 1-4-1 ATS in their L6 games overall but they have been somewhat decent on the road so far going 3-2 ATS and ML in their 5 games away from home in 2011. They did pick up an impressive road win in NE 3 weeks ago, 24-20, but that was the last time they have done anything impressive. They have gone 0-2 ATS and ML in the two games since, losing both by 7 points to SF and PHI respectively. The Giants are also banged up and will be missing some key regulars in Bradshaw, Boley and Tryon and they are 1-2 ATS when missing those 3. Historically the Saints are 3-1 ATS and ML in the L4 meetings between the two teams since 2003 and they are 3-0 ATS and ML in the L3 games played in NO since all 1994. In the two meetings played at the Superdome since 2003, the Saints have completely destroyed the Giants by a combined score of 93-34!! They have scored at least 45 points in each of those 2 games indoors. We all know how dominant Brees has been throughout his career, but imagine what it would have been if he only played the G-men every game - as Brees has gone 3-0 against them in his career, completing 65% of his passes and a 118+ QB rating, while also throwing for a perfect 7 TD versus 0 INT. The QB rating is good for his 5th highest rating against NFL teams. Sproles should be in line for a breakout game with the Saints tonight as the Giants allowed 113 yards to McCoy last week, 77 yards combined to everyone NOT named Gore against SF, over 100 yards rushing to NE, 103 yards to Bush in MIA, and 121 yards to Jackson vs. BUFF. They have allowed 100+ yards on the ground in each of their L8 games, while allowing a 100 yard runner in 4 of those games (98 yard rusher in another). Manning has been mostly inconsistent against the Saints throughout his career as well, as through 3 games against them, he has completed only 45% of his passes for a 65 QB rating and averaging only 139 YPG against them. He has only tossed 3 TD compared to 2 INT in those 3 games as well. He has also been sacked 3 times and lost a fumble against them too. Bradshaw is confirmed as out for this game and the Giants offense has struggled to get anything going offensively in his absence, as Jacobs has been inefficient to say the least in his absence. Jacobs has rushed for a total of 76 yards in his L2 games and he has only 10 carries for 38 yards and a TD versus the Saints through 2 career games against them. The Saints are 4-0 for the Over in weeks following their bye and are 2-1 for the Over when it is set at 50 points or higher in 2011 and they are also 3-1 for the Over against winning teams this season, with the only Under coming at 49 in their last game against ATL. The Giants are 5-1 for the Over themselves in their L6 games against teams with a winning record overall. Roll with the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS to COVER the SPREAD and for this one to easily go OVER the total.......
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3)
This could be a huge statement game for the Patriots and I just can't roll with the Eagles with any capacity in this match-up as they have proven to choke in every major game already on the season, except for the Cowboys, but that was when the Cowboys were struggling mightily as well. The Eagles are 1-7 ATS in their L8 home games and come into this one with Young at QB and against the mighty Patriots team, coming off an 34-3 victory over the lowly Chiefs on Monday night. Roll with the PATRIOTS in today's match-up.......
DENVER BRONCOS (+5.5) AND OVER 41
Just go with God in this one. And Tebow. The Broncos could pick up the victory very easily in this one as the Chargers are in a tailspin and their non-Super Bowl winning dynasty is coming to an end with every weekly horrible performance. We may be wrong in the end. But how can you go against the Broncos and Tebow and for Rivers and the Chargers? The Chargers are 5-1 ML and 4-1-1 ATS in the L6 match-ups, but the 2 Chargers victories against the Broncos already in the year 2011, have been by 5 points in both games. This half a point could loom large here. These two teams have also combined to score at least 49 points or more in 7 of their L8 match-ups against each other. WWJD? He would take the BRONCOS to COVER the SPREAD as nice underdogs and the OVER to come in easily in this one.......
NEW YORK JETS (-9.5)
Okay, so this may be a tough number to swallow for any non-Jets backers out there, and we have to admit, it does look a bit daunting at first glance. But if you look at the way Rex Ryan has battered around the Bills in his career against them, you have to have faith that this man will cover the spread today. Especially with the Jets coming off about a 10 day break in between games and with all that time for extra preparation. The Jets are 4-0 ATS and ML against the Bills in their L4 meetings, with the Jets winning by an average MOV of 23 PPG in the L3 games between them, and an average MOV of 19 PPG in all 4 of those games. They have blasted the Bills by 16, 31 and 24 points in each of those last 3 games. Last time the Jets came off such a lengthy break, was against the Bills in their first go-round a few weeks back, and they handled the time off with ease winning 27-11 as +2.5 underdogs. The Bills have been dreadful in their L3 games, including that Jets game, scoring 26 points in those 3 games and never topping more than the 11 they scored against the Jets. They are coming off 2 straight putrid road losses to MIA and DALL, in which they failed to score more than 8 points in either game and they gave up a combined 79 in those 2 as well. Jets should win this one easy. Take the JETS to COVER this big spread at home.......
HOUSTON TEXANS (-6)
It's games like this that we wish we would have told you to jump on this game earlier in the week as this line opened at -3.5 and has since steadily climbed to -6. If you live in Vegas, make sure to take the Texans on the parlay cards, where you can still get them for -3.5 on there due to the massive inflation. I will be all over those myself. We are huge Matt Leinart fans and remember fondly watching as he led the Cardinals to back-to-back 14-0, 1st quarter leads in his first 2 NFL starts (becoming the first and I believe still only NFL QB in the history to do that), including the game against the Bears on MNF in his 2nd start, in which the Cardinals blew a 20-point halftime lead, Barkley told the world on live TV what all us Cardinals fans were thinking at halftime there when he proclaimed, "I don't the Cardinals are going to win the game", and the Cardinals promptly went out and blew the game, sparking the now infamous Dennis Green, "They are who we thought they were!!" rant, we watched live. Alright, a little too much write-up not involving this game, but we like Leinart and know that he can step right into this role and lead this team to an easy victory. The Texans are 3-0-1 ATS in their L4 and have gone 4-0 ML in that span, blowing out every opponent by more than 10 points and by an average MOV of 22 points in those games. Jacksonville's offense has been a mess lately, scoring less than 17 points in 8 of their L10 games, and only hitting 17 (1x) and 20 (1x) in that span. They are averaging less than 11 PPG in their L5 overall. Houston won game one of the season series about 3 weeks ago in Houston, 24-14. Take the HOUSTON TEXANS here......
OAKLAND RAIDERS (-3)
Okay, so we get the fact that the Bears are scorching hot right now, going 5-0 ATS and ML in their L5 games overall and 6-1 ML in their L7, but a lot of that success was dependent largely on a guy who will be sitting on the sidelines for today's game. The Raiders have rebounded nicely from a little lull, having Palmer fit in perfectly the last 2 games and leading the Raiders to 2 road wins over Minnesota and San Diego. This will be the first home game with the team clicking on all cylinders. Go with the OAKLAND RAIDERS to COVER the SPREAD in this one.......
ARIZONA CARDINALS (+2.5) AND UNDER 40
When first thinking of this match-up, we were thinking of a possible lean towards the Rams, but after closer inspection, there is no way we can pass up taking the Cardinals in this spot as a decent road underdog here. These two teams square off twice and year and have played 10 times since December of 2006 and the Cardinals have absolutely owned the Rams in every aspect. AZ is 9-1 ML and 7-3 ATS in that span, including a perfect 5-0 ML and 3-2 ATS record in STL during that span. These two teams have also played to the Under at a clip of 7-0 in their L7 meetings and with a slew of injuries for both teams today, expect it to be another low-scoring affair. Neither team has hit 20 points in any of the L3 meetings and they have combined to score only at least 32 points once in that span. 40 should be too high again today. Roll with the AZ CARDINALS to COVER the SPREAD in this one and for this one to stay UNDER the total.......
CAROLINA PANTHERS MONEY LINE (-165)
Alright, so Newton has failed to come through for us in the clutch recently - as last week his Panthers blew a 24-point 1st half lead against the Lions only to get blown out in the end and fail to even cover on the spread as TD underdogs. But that was against a tough Lions squad and although this line is fairly questionable, I do think the Panthers will have enough to right the ship and should win this one by 7-10 points in the end. The Panther defense has been wretched in recent games, allowing 79 points in the L2 against DET and TENN and as long as there is no hangover left over from last week's letdown, the defense should bounce back effectively here today. The offense did score 35 last week against a tough Lions D, and they have managed to put 33+ on the board in 2 of the L4 games. Although their brutal schedule has left them 1-4 ATS in their L5, they have been far more effective against losing teams on the season, going 2-1 ATS and ML in their L3 games against teams with a losing record. But the Colts? How can you like the Colts here? They are banged up - Clark is out, Addai is questionable - and they have been dreadful all season long, but even moreso recently. Not only are they 0-10 ML and 2-8 ATS on the season so far, but they are also 0-6 ATS in their L6 games overall, scoring 10 or less in each of their L4 games (7 or less in 3 of those) and have been beaten by an average MOV of 20 PPG in the L6 and even without that 55-point thrashing to the Saints a few weeks back, have been outscored by an average MOV of 18 PPG in their L3 since that beat-down. The Colts are also 0-9 ATS in their L9 games versus teams with a losing record. Take the CAROLINA PANTHERS on the MONEY LINE to WIN the game in this one......
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3)
Moss is expected to be back for the Skins in this one, which should help spark their offense somewhat, but I still just see the Seahawks as being too much at home in this one today. Seattle is 3-1 ATS and 2-2 ML in their 4 home games on the season and handled BAL pretty easily in their last game there, 22-17. They are also currently 6-1-1 ATS in their L8 overall. On defense, they are allowing an average of barely over 90 YPG on the ground in their L3, but the Redskins have virtually no running game anyways, averaging only about 55 YPG in their L3 overall. The Redskins are 0-6 ML and 1-5 ATS in that span and have been atrocious in their L3 games on the road, going 0-3 ATS and ML in those 3 games, losing by an average MOV of about 15 PPG in those 3 contests. Although they were a bit banged up and missing some key figures like Moss. But Moss won't bring back their running game for this game today. Roll with the SEAHAWKS to COVER the SPREAD......
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+9.5) AND OVER 44
The Vikings have not looked all that impressive in recent weeks after their blowout loss to GB on MNF by 38 points and then their lackluster performance in the 1st half last week against the Raiders in which they were outscored 24-7 through the first 30 minutes. However, there is reason to really like this play as the Vikings did rebound with a strong second half in that game, outscoring the Raiders 14-3 over the last 30 minutes and perhaps that first half could merely be chalked up to a hangover from the blowout loss to the Pack. We expect the Viking to revert back more to that 2nd half team last week, a team which has showed up for the most part throughout the season, as all but one other game (besides that Packers blowout) has been lost by more than a TD in 2011. The Vikings have not been as bad on the road as their 2-3 ATS and 1-4 ML records would indicate, as despite 2 blowout losses to division rivals CHI and GB on the road, the Vikings beat CAR, lost by 5 to KC and lost by 7 to SD. And although Minnesota is 2-9-1 ATS in their L12 against teams with a winning record, while ATL is actually 8-1 ATS in their L9 against teams with a losing record, the Vikings are 2-1 ATS this season when listed as an underdog of 9 points or more. The Falcons are 3-2 ML at home in 2011, but they are only 2-3 ATS in their home confines and only 1-2 ATS in the 3 games they were actually listed as the favorite. In fact, this will be the highest line they have faced as a favorite this season, with their previous high only topping -6.5, and they are 1-2 ATS when listed as a favorite of -6 or higher. They are actually 2-4 ATS as a favorite on the season overall as well. The Vikings do have a lot of injuries that obviously are going to affect them in this one, with the most major one obviously being the loss of Peterson, but they were going to be hard pressed to run against this Falcons defense that has allowed only an average of 55 YPG on the ground over their L3 games and are allowing an average of 85 YPG in running D for the season. The Vikings will be forced to pass more in this one and Ponder should be healthy enough to showcase a little of his talent here and keep this one close and the Vikings have gone Over today's total at a clip of 5-0 in their L5 games overall. The Falcons haven't scored less than 23 in any of their L5 games and in 7 of their L9 overall, topping 30 in 4 of those games. Roll with the MINNESOTA VIKINGS as a huge underdog in this one and for this game to go OVER the total.......
DETROIT LIONS (+6.5) AND OVER 55.5
Okay, so we may be fooled with this play here, but for some reason, we keyed in on this game weeks ago as the possible upset special to ruin the Packers perfect season. And this seems like a Turkey Day special indeed. The Lions are actually only the 2nd team to have beaten the Packers in the last calender year (New England also beat them the following week on SNF) as they defeated the Packers at home, 7-3, in Week 14 of last season. They did also knock Rodgers out of the game in the 2nd quarter with a concussion to be fair though. This rebuilt Lions team was also 2-0 ATS and 1-1 ML in their 2 meetings with the Packers last season, with their loss being by 2 points, 28-26, in Green Bay. The Packers do pretty much own this series overall though, as they have gone 9-1 ML and 7-3 ATS in the L10 meetings since 2006, and not counting last season's loss and 2-point win, their average MOV has been by 16 points in their 8 other wins. The Lions have been abysmal on Thanksgiving in recent years, going 0-7 ATS and ML in their L7 on the holiday, losing by an average MOV of nearly 23 points a game. However, their last win on the day was against the Packers back in 2003, when they were also 7 point underdogs and they pulled off the straight upset, 22-14. Rodgers is the man. Plain and simple. But he has to lose sometime, right? Although, it may be hard to come by in today's contest as he is lights out in the month of November in his career, and when playing indoors as he is today. Over the past 2 seasons, he has had an off the charts QB rating (135+) during the month, completing his passes at a 75% clip, with 19 TD against only 1 INT. If you go back to 2009, he has 30 TD and 4 INT in November. Indoors he has been perfect this season, with 5 TD and 0 INT and for his career he completes his passes at a 68% clip and has 23 TD and 5 INT. Against DET, he has also excelled, with his 2nd highest passer rating against a team with at least 3 games played against them (115.5) and 2nd most TD's against (14) and he averages over 260 YPG when he plays them. But the Lions have sacked him 11 times in the L2 seasons, forced 4 INT's, and have knocked him out with a concussion. And Detroit has been cruising on defense all season long, coming into this game ranked 5th against the pass (192.8 YPG) and have registered 28 sacks on the year (8th). At home in 2011, they are allowing an even better 187 YPG in the air, although they haven't faced a QB like Rodgers yet this season. The Lions are 3-2 ATS and 3-2 ML on the season at home, including last week's huge come from behind victory to beat the Panthers 49-35 in a game they once trailed by 17 (the 3rd time this season they have come from down 17 to win a game this season - 1st time in NFL history)! Momentum is a huge thing and should pay off huge in this one. Stafford could have a big day against the Packers defense, which comes into this game allowing a nearly 290 YPG in the air overall in 2011 and a slightly lower 286 YPG on the road as well this season. The Packers do enter this one 5-0 ML and 3-2 ATS on the road this season, and have won their last 2 road contests in San Diego by 7 and in Minnesota by 6. As for the Over, the Packers come into this game having played to the Over at a clip of 4-0 in the L4 and 6-3 in 2011 and they have scored at least 33 points in each of those L4 games. The Lions are also 3-0 for the Over in their L3 and have also played to the Over at a clip of 6-3 in 2011. They have had one team score at least 37 points in each of their L3 games, and they have scored at least 45 points in 2 of those 3 games themselves. They are currently 2-3 for the Over at home so far this season, while Green Bay is 3-2 for the Over on the road. Roll with the DETROIT LIONS to COVER as the home underdog AND THEN FOR HALF YOUR NORMAL WAGER, take a chance on the LIONS on the MONEY LINE to WIN the game outright and for this one to go screaming OVER the inflated total.........
MIAMI DOLPHINS (+7)
The Dolphins are on a roll as of late, going 4-0 ATS in their L4 games and 3-0 ML in their L3, becoming the first team in NFL history to start out 0-7 and then win their next 3 straight games. They also come into this big holiday game with a 5-1 ML record in their history on Thanksgiving day. Not totally sold that they will pull out the W here, but they should be able to keep this one close throughout, especially with Austin and Jenkins ruled out for the game. The Dolphins have either won or kept the score within 3 points or less in 6 of their L8 games. Moore has been red hot himself during their 3 game win streak and has a lot of reason to be looking forward to this game, as the Cowboys essentially chose Romo over him a few years back when both were backups on the Cowboys squad together. But Moore has been impressive as of late, with a 118+ QB rating and 6 TD versus 1 INT during the Dolphins current 3 game run. The Dolphins defense has stepped up huge too, not allowing a TD in 3 games and have been best in the league since November 6, allowing only 6.7 PPG and 72.7 YPG on the ground. They haven't allowed more than 26 points in a game since week 1 and haven't allowed more than 20 points in any of their L5 games overall. They have also managed to put at least 30 on the board in 2 of their L3 games, behind a rushing attack that is averaging 100+ YPG in that span. As for the Cowboys, Romo is not the man in our opinion, but he does sure play like it on Thanksgiving. In 4 career starts, he has 12 TD and 2 INT and averages 285 passing YPG. He is also amazing in November, going 18-2 in his career during the month, with 49 TD and 12 INT overall. Dallas has suddenly found themselves as well, going 4-1 ML in their L5 games, but they are a disappointing 2-3 ATS in those games. They are 1-3 ATS in their L4, although only one of their 3 wins was by less than today's spread. At home the Cowboys are 4-1 ML and only 2-2-1 ATS in their L5 games in Dallas. However, the Cowboys are 3-8 ATS in their L11, when listed as the home favorite. Take the DOLPHINS to COVER the SPREAD in this turkey bowl.........
SAN FRANCISCO 49'ERS (+3.5)
Just can't ignore this 49'ers team, which has made some big money for us already this season. Hell they have made big money for everyone this season as they have gone 9-0-1 ATS for their backers and are 10-0-1 ATS going back to last season. This one should be tight throughout, with perhaps the 49'ers even pulling off the upset in this one as well. On the road in 2011, San Francisco is a perfect 4-0 ATS and ML this season, with an average MOV of 5 points in those games. Gore will be key to the 49'ers success tonight, as their running game is averaging 132+ YPG on the season overall, and a slightly less 126+ YPG on the ground in their L3, while the Ravens are allowing 93 YPG on the ground for the season and have given up a slightly inflated average of 102 YPG in the running game over their L3. The Ravens will also be hard-pressed to get any type of running game going in this one, as San Francisco has not allowed 100 yards on the ground in a game in any of their L35 contests!! Yes, 35! They are allowing 73 YPG on the ground for the season, and about 75 YPG over their L3, so as you can see, Rice will be in trouble today. Which will leave the game in the hands of Flacco, which if you have followed the Ravens during his career, can be a scary proposition sometimes. The battle of the Harbaugh's should be won by little bro in this one tonight, at least on the spread anyway, as this game should ultimately be decided by a FG or less. Jump on SAN FRANCISCO to remain perfect and COVER the SPREAD yet again........
WEEK #13: (9-7 / YTD: 112-73-2)
Another big SUN-DAY action of the NFL as we went 7-4 ATS during all morning and afternoon games in Sunday, but we are 2-3 ATS in the 4 prime-time games so far. Ah well, we continue to make big profits in the NFL as we are still 38 plays above .500 for the season!!
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3)
I wanted to find a reason to go against the Chargers and go with the Jags, but after comparing everything at face value, I just can't find a reason that the Jaguars pull off the small upset at home here. Jacksonville does already have a nice home upset against BAL in their lone MNF game this season a few weeks back, but it is really hard to say if that was truly all about the Jags or the lack of intensity from a Ravens team coming in off of a huge win the week before. This time around the Jags square off against a Chargers team that is in the midst of their worst tailspin in the Rivers era - and Rivers himself is putting forth the worst season of his career by far and has already set a career high with 17 INT. SD comes into this one in an unbelievable 6 game skid - although all of those losses (except one: KC) have come against playoff contending teams such as DEN, @CHI, OAK, GB and @NYJ. They are all but mathematically eliminated from postseason contention, but they do come into this one with a lot of pride to play for and a lot at stake. Turner is definitely on the scorching hot seat and there is talk that he is out immediately if the Bolts lose tonight's game. Rivers has pretty much thrived on MNF, as he has a 61% completion rating for an average of 285 YPG with 8 TD versus 4 INT in his L5 MNF games over the L3 years. He has also only faced Jax once in that span, but he was pretty impressive, tossing for 335 yards, 3 TD and 2 INT, as he went 22 for 29 overall and had a 119 QB rating. He has struggled like never before this season though and comes into this one completing only 55% of his passes over his L3 games, with a paltry 78.9 QBR, although he does have 5 TD and only 3 INT in that span. Over the L3 years he has also shone brightly at night, as through 6 games played under the lights, he has tossed 8 TD against 3 INT, tossing for an average of 270 YPG and completed 65% of his passes. And the Chargers will be closest to full-strength on the offensive side of the ball as Floyd is expected to back in action for the Chargers tonight, after missing 4 games due to a hip injury. Despite the Chargers struggle to score recently (16 PPG over their L3) they have put up about 330 YPG on the offensive side of the ball, which is much better than the Jags 3-game average of 269 yards of offense. However, SD will need their defense to step up huge and shut down the running game and Drew, who come into this one averaging 118 YPG on the ground in their L3 outings. The Chargers have been run over in recent weeks, allowing over 200+ yards last week to the Tebow-led Broncos, and 160+ over their L3 overall. Drew has faced the Chargers once over the L3 years and he struggled to get anything going in that one, rushing only 12 times for a meager 31 yards and 0 TD, and he wasn't much better in his only other game against them in his career as he rushed 12 times for only 33 yards in that one, although he did score a TD in that game. But that makes Drew a combined 24 rushes 64 yards and 1 TD in his 2 career games against SD. And they will be relying on him big tonight as Gabbert has statistically been the worst QB in the league this season, compiling a pathetic 62.2 QBR in 2011. The Jaguars also currently rank dead last in total offense (250 YPG), passing offense (131 YPG) and PPG (12.5) and have only 1 win (besides BAL) in their L10 games overall and that was against a ragged IND team. They come into this one off of two straight losses to CLE and a HOU team playing with their ice cold 3rd-string QB forced into taking over for 2.5 quarters of the game. The Chargers have been the best team in December in recent years as well, going 20-2 ML in their L22 games during the Christmas month since 2006. They are 12-5 ATS in their L17 December games as well while the Jaguars are 4-9-1 ATS in their L14 games overall and 2-8-1 ATS in their L11 when listed as the underdog. They are also 3-7 ATS in their L10 MNF games, including going 1-0 ATS already in 2011. Roll with the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS to COVER the SPREAD as the FG favorites in this one........
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3)
The Dolphins come into this one off of a heart-breaking Thanksgiving day loss in Dallas, 20-19, and should be prepared for this match-up against the Raiders - who are stuck with the dreaded cross-country, east-coast, early start game. At first glance we wanted to go with the Raiders, but that seemed too easy and with the Raiders somewhat reverting back to the old Raiders with the recent off-field issues and injuries to key players, this should be a solid match-up for the Dolphins to handle overall. These two franchises have squared off 10 times since 1997 and MIA owns the series, going 8-2 ML and 7-3 ATS in that span. In the L7 meetings since 2001, they are 5-2 ML and 4-3 ATS, and have gone 3-1 ML in their 4 home games over that span. The come into this one 5-1 ML in the L6 meetings (4-2 ATS) and they did blowout the Raiders last season with a 33-17 win in OAK. The Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the L4 match-ups. However, OAK will have some question marks in this one as McClain should be held out after being arrested for gun charges and McFadden is again not expected to play in this one. That will leave the rushing attack squarely in the hands of Bush and although he and the rest of the running backs have produced nicely in McFadden's absence (the rushing game has averaged 142 YPG in the L3) they will be faced with a formidable task against this Dolphins defense that has been remarkable against the run recently, holding opponents to a 62 YPG average on the ground in their L3 games against DALL, BUFF and WASH. Oakland is currently on a roll, going 3-0 ATS and ML over their L3 overall and they have actually been a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road so far this year. Obviously Palmer has stepped in nicely in place of the injured Campbell at QB, but he has actually been spotty overall only tossing 6 TD against 8 INT and he goes up against this MIA defense that has forced the opposing QB to throw 2 INT in each of the L3 games. The Dolphins had that abysmal 0-9 start to the season, but they have been surging as of late, going 5-0 ATS in their L5 and 3-1 ML in their L4 coming into this one. Over his L3, Moore has tossed for about 650 yards with 4 TD to go with just 1 INT. I saw somewhere that he has been the 3rd best QB statistically since November (I believe - it was along those lines) and MIA has been tough at home, winning their L2 in FLA by a combined score of 55-17 against BUFF and WASH. Although Oakland is currently on a 3-game run, they haven't really beat anyone to write home about - as they have beaten CHI with Hanie in his first start, a very struggling and MIN team in dismay (and that was a 24-7 half-time lead that they clung to a 27-21 win) and a very confused and disappointing SD. Not too mention, Miami has had about 10 days to prepare for the Raiders, are coming off a 1-point loss in front of the world and are playing at home against the Raiders -- that should be enough motivation for Miami to pull this one off and make it look somewhat easy in the process. Roll with the MIAMI DOLPHINS to COVER the SPREAD at home in this one......
CAROLINA PANTHERS (+1.5)
The spread has jumped down for the Panthers favor in this one as they started out a 3-point dogs and have now settled below the 2-point number. They will most likely be facing a Bucs club without Freeman at QB as he is expected to be held out of this one due to injury. Carolina has won 3 of the 5 meetings held in TB between these clubs and come into this one having scored more than 21 in 4 of their L5 games overall. TB has only done the same one time over their L5 and that was with Freeman at the helm. Now it appears they are going to have to try to match up with the Newton's with a guy by the name of Johnson - their former starter, before Freeman. Roll with the CAROLINA PANTHERS to COVER the tiny SPREAD in this one........
NEW YORK JETS (-3)
This one should be a slam dunk for the Jets, despite the fact that the Redskins are actually 4-0 ML in the L4 meetings and 5-1 ML in the 6 career meetings between the franchises themselves. However the last meeting between them was back in 2007 and the two teams are an identical (and somewhat odd) 2-2-2 ATS in the 6 career meetings. Sexy Rexy should have his boys ready to play today, especially after last week's somewhat impressive 28-24 win over the Bills. At 6-5, the Jets are definitely in need of a win to stay playoff relevant and should be able to find one against an altogether slumping Redskins team, although they are coming off their first win since the beginning of October after last week's very impressive come-from-behind 23-17 win in SEA. They are healthier than they have been, but still very banged up, and come into this one averaging a measly 77 YPG on the ground over their L3. The Jets have been tough on the run defensively, allowing less than 91 YPG on the ground overall. The Jets rushing attack itself has found some traction in recent games, going for an average of 110+ in the L3, while the Redskins have been allowing 100 YPG on the ground in their L3 as well. Go with the NEW YORK JETS to COVER the SPREAD in this one today......
DENVER BRONCOS (-1) AND OVER 37.5
Just go with God in this one. And Tebow. The Broncos could pick up the victory very easily in this one as the Vikings are in a tailspin as evidenced more and more with every weekly horrible performance. How can you go against the Broncos and Tebow? How can you go against Tebow period? All this guy does is win football games (5-1 as a starter) and throw TD passes (8 TD) and not commit turnovers (1 INT / 0 F) and rush for big yards (455 YDS / 5.8 AVG PR) and score rushing TD's (3) and....... Alright, I am sure you get the point - Tebow is legitimately the man. And currently the hot hand and you have to ride the hot hand until it burns out. I don't think today is the day for that as the Broncos face a Vikings team that is 2-9 ML and 4-5-2 ATS overall on the season. The Vikings are also on a putrid 2-9-2 ATS run against teams with winning records. Tebow is also 4-0 ATS and ML in his 4 road games this season. WWJD? He would take the BRONCOS to COVER the SPREAD and the OVER to come in easily in this one.......
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7)
The Ravens haven't played since their Thanksgiving night victory over the 49'ers in convincing fashion and they should be well-rested and well-prepared to easily cover the TD spread in today's game. The Ravens have historically done so when playing the lowly Browns, going 6-0 ML in the L6 meetings since 2008 and 5-0-1 against today's spread, winning by at least 7 points in every single one of those games and by 10 or more in 5 of them. They have held the Browns to 17 points or less in each of the L4 meetings and have kept them to 10 or under in 3 of those games. The Ravens have scored 20 ore more in 5 of those 6 meetings and have topped 28 points in 3 of those 5. Go with the BALTIMORE RAVENS to pick up the easy casher here.........
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+7) AND UNDER 43
The Bengals need to hang competitively in this one and it will largely depend on whether or not Dalton can manage the pressure in the big house. He played well in the first match-up, but the Steelers did end up escaping with a TD win to cover the spread as -3.5 favorites. He could be helped by the fact the Polamalu may be held out today, but the Steelers come into this one 8-2 ATS and ML over the L10 meetings between these two teams since 2006. In fact, the last time the Bengals actually picked up a win ATS/ML was back in 2009 when they swept the season series. The Steelers are not playing their best ball right now, as evidenced by their 13-9 victory at Kansas City in last week's win, but they are 8-2 ML in their L10 overall. At home in 2011, they are 4-1 ML with their only loss coming to division rival BAL, 23-20, and they have managed to cover today's spread at a clip of 3-2 in those 5 games. The Steelers have also managed to hold the game Under today's combined total in each of their L4 games and against today's total, they would be 6-2-2 for the Under in their L10 games overall. On the flip side, the Bengals have yet to lose a game all season long by more than a TD, so they should have enough to hang within this one again in the end as well. CIN is also currently riding a 5-0-1 ATS record on the road this season. They too have played under today's total at a clip of 3-1 in their L4 games overall. These two teams have split the L2 seasons with the Over/Under - and they eeked out an Over in the first match-up. Roll with the CINCINNATI BENGALS to COVER the SPREAD as a TD dog and for this one to stay UNDER the total........
BUFFALO BILLS (-1.5) AND OVER 42.5
The Bills will be looking for some of that mojo they have had all season when playing in their friendly confines when they square off against the Titans today. The Titans currently own this match-up, going 4-1 ML in the 5 meetings played in the 2000's, but they last met up in 2009. And it is no secret the Bills have been absolutely brutal lately, in desperation mode because of a current 4 game slide, but there is a bright spot in the fact that they have played much better in Buffalo on the year. They are 4-1 ML and 3-2 ATS in their 5 games at home in 2011, beating the likes of WASH, PHI, NE and OAK and have scored 31 or more points in 3 of those 5 games. TENN has alternated wins and losses over their L6 games, and if you follow that, they are due for a loss today, as they come in off a nice come-from-behind win in TB last week, 23-17. They have gone 2-2 ML in their L4 road games, but they are 3-1 ATS in those games, and have scored 17 points in each loss, and 30+ points in each win. Each of the L3 games between these two teams has easily soared over the total, combining for at least 54 points in all 3. The Bills are also 8-2-1 for the Over in their L11 games overall. This one should follow suit. Take the BUFFALO BILLS to COVER the SPREAD at home and for this one to roll OVER the total......
ATLANTA FALCONS (-1.5)
The Falcons seem too good to be true in this spot on the road and they are catching the Falcons at the right time indeed to pick up what should amount to an easy road victory. Atlanta is currently on a 2 game winning streak and has gone 5-1 ML over their L6 games and actually hasn't lost to anyone other than NO and GB in the L9 weeks. They have won their L3 games on the road by an average MOV of 11 points, but that is askew from a blowout at IND, 31-7, in their last game away from home. They also beat DET by 7 and SEA by 2 -- so they do have 2 impressive road wins in those L3. They haven't been great when listed as the spread so far this season, going 2-4 ATS in the 6 games when favored and they are actually 0-2 ATS when listed as a -1 favorite, including their first road game of the season in CHI. HOU comes into this one also on a roll, albeit this will be their first real game with their 3rd string QB Yates starting, winning 5 straight games and going 4-0-1 ATS in that span. Because of their high-powered offense, they aren't used to being put in an underdog situation and they have responded accordingly, going 1-2 ATS in the 3 games when given points. They are 4-1 ML at home, with their only loss coming to OAK, but again that was with Schaub at the helm and today is going to be mighty different. Yates came in relief late in the 2nd quarter of last week's 20-3 win, but he led the team to 0 points and managed a very lackluster 70 yards passing. The Texans swear by their man, but if they falter and are forced to rely on their running game, they will be hard-pressed to find any help against the Falcons defense which is allowing an unbelievably low 48 YPG on the ground over their L3 games. Houston comes into this one averaging just under 180 yards on the ground per game over their L3 overall, but it should face a tougher challenge today, especially with the Falcons defense geared towards the run. The key to this game will be in the passing game as the Falcons come into this one averaging over 300 YPG over their L3, but the Texans have been lock down in the secondary all season long, allowing an average of 175 YPG in the air against them for the season and a paltry 139 YPG over their L3. But again, they have been outscored 3-0 since Yates has taken over and that was against Jacksonville. Go with the ATLANTA FALCONS to COVER the SPREAD as the very small road favorite in this one.......
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-9) AND OVER 54
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3) AND UNDER 44
This is a tough game to match-up as both of these teams come into the game seriously banged up and should be limited offensively in some major capacities. The Seahawks come into this one having blown a 10-point lead against the Redskins at home on Sunday, losing 23-17, and have struggled greatly at home so far this season overall. However, when you look closer, they actually haven't been that bad at home this season despite going 2-3 ML in their home stadium. They are 3-2 ATS and have gone 3-1 ATS in their home stadium when listed as an underdog. Even further, they are actually 6-1-1 ATS in their L8 games when listed as the underdog in 2011, and they are 3-0-1 ATS when listed as a +3 point underdog over the L2 seasons. The Hawks will be without Rice tonight, having put him on IR this past week due to concussions, which doesn't bode well as the Seahawks have been struggling in the passing game greatly this season and have averaged only 165 passing yards per game over their L3 overall. However, if Jackson can get going early enough, this Eagles team could provide the passing attack with the spark they need, as the Eagles defense has allowed an average of nearly 300 YPG in the air over their L3. The Eagles have also been abysmal on the road this season, going 1-5 ATS in 2011 when on the road. They are 2-1 ATS when listed as a -3 favorite though. The road team is currently on a 6-0 ML run in the L6 meetings between the two teams and 7-1 ML in the L8 match-ups. Roll with the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES to COVER the SPREAD as a small favorite in this one and for this one to remain UNDER the total.......
WEEK #14: (8-8-1 / YTD: 120-81-3)
We were legitimately robbed this week as we should have had a MONSTER week overall, but instead we were forced to settle with the even week. We did go 5-0 ATS in the MNF and SNF action , but Sunday AM was a little rude to us. We had the Carolina Panthers as +3.5 dogs go into the half, UP 23-7, and couldn't even pull out a cover. The Bengals gave up a last second - literally 2 seconds left on the clock - 20+ yard TD to lose by 1 and ruin another perfectly good -3 cover!! AT THE LAST SECOND!! And after getting to 47 total points with about 10 minutes left in the game, the Chargers and Bills suddenly refused to scored any more points and killed us on the Over by a stinking, lousy, no good point!! Like I said, we was robbed!!
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-9) AND SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 1ST HALF (-4.5) AND OVER 38
The Seahawks have absolutely dominated the Rams in recent years and come into this one with their playoff hopes on life support for the most part and will need to make a statement early in tonight's game against this lowly Rams team. Let's start with this - the Seahawks come into this one 12-1 ML in their L13 meetings against the Rams since 2005 and they are also 10-3 ATS in that span. They have gone 8-2 ATS in the L10 meetings, which includes the Seahawks owning a perfect 5-0 ML and 4-1 ATS record in the L5 games at home, and have outscored the Rams 114-25 in the L4 meetings held at CenturyLink Field. That's right, Seattle has won the L4 meetings on their home field by scores of 16-6 (2010-11); 28-0 (2009-10); 37-13 (2008-09) and 33-6 (2007-08). The Seahawks have also gone 4-0 ATS in that span, and have been listed as the favorites by a TD or more in 3 of those 4. At home this season, the Seahawks have also been a lot tougher than their 3-3 ML record would indicate. They come into this one off of last Thursday's blowout win over the Eagles, 31-14, so they should be well-rested for tonight's contest. They have had a tough home schedule this season, facing the likes of PHI, CIN, BAL, ATL and AZ - they have managed to come out with impressive victories against PHI, BAL and AZ. They are currently 4-2 ATS at home, although they are 0-1 in the only game listed as the favorite, they have been running over teams in recent weeks, with their ground game fully establishing itself as a dominating force by going for over 100 yards in 5 straight games. The Rams will be hard-pressed to stop that Seahawks rushing attack, as they are allowing a pathetic 180 YPG on the ground over their L3. This turf team has been even worse on grass too, allowing over 206 YPG on the ground when playing on a real grass surface. Seattle has gone for 141 YPG on the ground in their L3 but haven't been as impressive at home for the season, averaging only 108 YPG in those games. But those were against some tough, tough rushing defenses as well. They will face much different competition tonight. The Rams are 1-4 ATS and ML in their L5 and 2-8 ATS and ML over their L10 overall, and come into tonight's MNF showcase having scored more than 13 points only 1 time in their L5 games and only 2 times over their L10. Their highest scoring output on the road in 2011 has been 16 points so far and that was back in Week 2 in their first road game of the season. They haven't scored more than 13 in any of their L5 games away from St. Louis and have failed to reach double-digits in 3 of those games. Even worse, they were shut out at SF last week and come into this game averaging just over 7 PPG in their L5 in someone else's house. Bradford is listed as Questionable for this one, while Feeley is doubtful, so the QB .duties could be in the hands of Brandstater. Who? Exactly. Roll with the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS to COVER both the 1ST HALF SPREAD and the GAME SPREAD in tonight's match-up and go with the Over in this one as Seattle should hit 30 by themselves.......
NEW YORK GIANTS (+4.5) AND OVER 49.5
These two teams have met 9 times since 2007 and they have scored 49 or more points in 7 of those meetings, including scoring at least 53 in all of their L4 games. The Giants are 2-1 in the L3 meetings in Dallas as well. Take the NY GIANTS and the OVER in this SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL match-up......
DENVER BRONCOS (-3)
Just go with God in this one. Again. And Tebow. Again. The Broncos should pick up the victory in this one as the Bears are currently in a bit of a tailspin and face some serious questions about a starting quarterback who only managed to produce 3 points against KC. How can you go against the Broncos and Tebow? How can you go against Tebow period? All this guy does is win football games (6-1 as a starter) and throw TD passes (10 TD) and not commit turnovers (1 INT / 0 F) and rush for big yards (468 YDS) and score rushing TD's (3) and....... Alright, I am sure you get the point - Tebow is legitimately the man. And currently the hot hand and you have to ride the hot hand until it burns out. I don't think today is the day for that as the Broncos face a Bears team with Hanie at QB and is currently 0-2 ML and 0-2 ATS in their L2 games against KC and OAK. Forte is also out for this one, which will greatly affect the Bears chances of getting the running game. Miller is also back at LB for the Broncos for this one, so once again everything appears to be sided towards the Broncos in this one. Tebow is only 1-1 ATS and ML in his 2 home starts this season. WWJD? He would take the BRONCOS to COVER the SPREAD in this one.......
ARIZONA CARDINALS (+4)
San Francisco currently owns the Cardinals, having gone 5-0 ML in the L5 meetings and 6-0 ATS in the L6 between the two teams, but the Cardinals are coming in off last week's huge momentum building OT victory over the Cowboys - another team that owned them recently and they were also expected to lose handily to. That was the 2nd OT come from behind victory for the Cardinals this season, and the last time they won in OT they responded by coming back the next week to beat PHI as 14-point underdogs in the game, 21-17. Kolb is back for the Cardinals and although he wasn't lights out, he managed the offense well, passed for nearly 250 yards and threw a TD without an INT. He gives this struggling AZ offense something they haven't had in recent weeks, a legitimate passing threat, and they should be able to raise their dreadful 159 YPG average in the passing attack over their L3 games. But as we all well know by now, this SF team is tough. They are 9-1 ATS and ML over their L10 games and are 10-2 for the season overall in both categories and come into this one allowing 23 points over their L3 games (with 16 allowed to BAL on Thanksgiving) and beat the Cardinals at home 3 short weeks ago, 23-7. They were also 10-point favorites in that game as well. Their defense has been unbearable all season long, but especially over the L3 games, allowing an unbelievable 67 YPG on the ground over their L3 games as well as a piddly 145 YPG in the air over that span. That's right, they are allowing an average of 213 YPG of Total Offense over their L3!! But the Cardinals have found success in their running game lately, with Wells becoming the key back they envisioned, as they have averaged over 150 YPG on the ground over their L3 and at home they have also been averaging a key 100 yards even on their home turf. Take a chance and go with the ARIZONA CARDINALS as the home underdog here.......
OVER 48 BUFFALO BILLS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS AND OVER 24 1ST HALF
This one just seems to scream the Over as it would appear that all may be well for the next few games in Charger-land as Rivers finally found a groove in his last game to further improve upon his amazing record during the month of December. The Chargers are now 21-2 in the month of December with Rivers at QB and they have gone over at a clip of 9-4-1 in their L13 games played in SD. The Bills are on many Over trends coming into this one, including going 7-0-1 for the Over in their L8 games when listed as the Underdog as well as the Over is 9-3-1 in their L13 games overall. However, the Under is 9-1 in SD last 10 home games overall, but in the L4 meetings between these teams in San Diego, they have managed to combine to total 47 or more in every single one. We will be counting on Buffalo to score in this one, which could be a tall feat as they have not only scored 20 or more points in 1 of their L5 games and have scored 11 points or less in 3 of those games. I just expect the Chargers passing game and Rivers to be on point tonight and go higher than their 276 YPG average in the air over their L3. They did put up 38 points against a tough Jacksonville offense on the big stage last week and the cobwebs should have been cleared from the offense. Go with the OVER 48 for the GAME total and throw down on the OVER again in the 1ST HALF and expect a ton of points in this high-scoring affair......
OAKLAND RAIDERS (+11.5) AND OVER 52
Interesting stat: the GB Packers have never even trailed in the 4th quarter during their current 18-game winning streak. And I have to admit, we have been expecting a loss from them for a few weeks now and have been wrong in the end. Maybe it's just the fact they are 12-0 and we are secretly wishing for a loss, it is diluting our vision of them. But seriously, 11.5 points? If McFadden were playing today, I would perhaps even be suggesting the upset, but nonetheless, I feel this one will be a lot closer on the scoreboard in the end than the odds-makers would have you believe. The Raiders are 0-3 ML in their L3 meetings in GB, having lost by 28 points or more in 2 of those games, but two of those meetings were also in the 1990's and the last one was in 2007. They come into this one 3-1 ATS and ML in their L3 games overall, but that does includes last week's disappointing loss to MIA, 34-14. But they have put 24 points or more on the board in 4 of their L5 and have managed to do the same in 7 of their L10 overall. The Pack are the Pack and they have scored 33 or more points in 5 of their L6 games as well. Take the OAKLAND RAIDERS and the OVER in today's meeting........
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3)
I don't understand why everyone appears to be on HOU in this one, because although CIN is 1-3 ML and 0-3-1 ATS in their L4 games, those 3 losses have come against 2 teams: Baltimore and Pittsburgh (2 times). When not facing the Ravens and Steelers, they are 6-0 ML and 5-1 ATS in the other 6 games out of their L9 overall. They are 3-2 ML and 2-3 ATS at home in 2011, although again their 2 losses were against PITT and SF. Dalton is listed as Questionable for the game officially after suffering a hip stinger in the last game, but he is expected to start. Yates will be behind center for the Texans and will be without one of their main weapons, with Johnson officially ruled out for this one. Yates was previously forced into action when Leinart went down in their last road game, and the Texans failed to score over an entire half with him at the reins. Houston does come into this one straight money, winning 6 straight and going 5-0-1 ATS in that span. They have won 3 in a row on the road, outscoring TEN, TB and JAX 98-29 in that span, although it is 0-3 with Yates at the helm on the road. Yates has been unspectacular in his 2 games so far, going 20-for-40 for 258 yards and 1 TD with 0 INT. However the rushing game has picked up the slack, gaining an average of 145 YPG on the ground over their L3 and have out-gained their opponents by 70 yards or more in 5 of the L6. And it is no coincidence they have not lost in that span. CIN has been tough to get the running game going against at home so far in 2011, allowing an average of 92 YPG on the ground - much better than their 108 YPG average for the season overall. Dalton was essentially "pulled" last week in the 4th quarter with the game out of reach and it will be interesting to see how he responds in this one. The passing game has been somewhat productive over their L3, amassing an average of 250 YPG, but it will face some stiff competition in this one with the Texans currently having the 3rd-ranked defense in the league, and allowing only 186 YPG in the air in that span. Houston has won the L2 meetings between the two squads, but they haven't played since 2009, and the Bengals actually had won the only 3 previous meetings prior to that. Roll with the BENGALS to COVER the FG SPREAD in this one at home.......
UNDER 47 MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ DETROIT LIONS
Again, we are going against the grain on this one it seems, as the favorite appears to be the Over for this contest, but I just don't understand how the Vikings are going to be putting a completely depleted offense on the field and they are expected to score more points? Let's start with this - these two division "rivals" have squared off 9 times since 2007 and they have only gone Over today's projected total 2 times in that span. They did hit 49 after their OT meeting in September, but the previous 6 meetings before that were combined totals of 33, 34, 37, 40, 36 and 22. And with both Peterson and Ponder out they are expecting to put up more points? The Vikings do come into this one having just scored 32 against a tough DEN defense, but that was at home. On the road in 2011, they have only scored more than 17 points 1 time and that was in a 24-21 win over CAR - and they are currently average just a hair under 15 PPG on the season overall. DET has something in common with the Vikings there somewhat as they too have struggled to score - although when playing at home - and with the exception of their game against CAR. They put 49 on the board in that huge comeback 49-35 win three weeks ago, but they have scored 19 points or less in 3 of their L4 at home besides that CAR game, and 24 points or less in 4 of their L5 there. The Vikings could be hard pressed to contain the Lions running game with or without Smith, as the Lions come into this one averaging 131 YPG on the ground over their L3, while the Vikings are allowing 134 YPG on the ground in that same span. The Vikings have been much better on the season overall and on the road as well in that department, allowing only an average of 103 YPG in those situations. Minnesota has been playing better against the pass lately, allowing an average of only 190 YPG over their L3 games against Tebow, Ryan and Palmer. Stafford and co. are connecting for nearly 330 YPG in the air over their L3 and should control this game today as well. But expect the Vikings defense to show up and keep the Vikings in this one and this one lower-scoring than you would think. The Lions defense has failed to record a turnover in back-to-back games as well, and we expect them to get a few today and hopefully they are in some key field position areas, after drives that milk the clock. Go with the UNDER 47 in this match-up........
TENNESSEE TITANS (+3.5)
I love going against 70% of the public on a game. It actually truly does feel better than being on a pick that 70% of the public is on. Either we are off this week, or we are going to have a very good week while the rest of the public struggles mightily this week. Seeing as we have had huge weeks when we are going against the public for the most part, I like our chances. As you know by now, this represents one of those games. I know the Saints are rolling, having won 4 in a row, 5-of-6, and going 8-2 ML in their L10 overall, behind a scoring average of nearly 33 points a game. And they still have Brees who is putting up the quietest 4000 yard season so far than anyone ever has in the history of the NFL. But we expect this one to come down to a FG and perhaps even end up with TEN on the victors side when all is said and done. The Titans/Oilers franchise has won 4 in a row in the series and 5-of-6 between the two teams, but if we have to include the Oilers in there, you know that goes back a ways. The last 2 times these teams met up was in 2007 with the Titans winning 31-17 on the road as +4.5 dogs. Brees had perhaps his worst game as a starter with NO and ended up throwing 0 TD and 4 INT in that game. The Saints come into this one 3-3 ML on the road in 2011 and 2-4 ATS away from home, and in fact they have won only 1 of those games by more than 3 points, and that was in Jacksonville in Week 4. However this Saints team has found their rhythm as of late, outscoring both the Lions and the Giants, 80-41, in their L2 games, although both of those were at home. The Titans have also been putting a little run together lately, going 3-1 ML and 4-0 ATS in their L4 games and 4-2 ML and 5-1 ATS in their L6. At home they have struggled lately, going 2-2 ML in their L4 there, but they are 4-2 ML at home for 2011 and have beaten the likes of BAL and DEN earlier in the season there and IND and TB in 2 of their L3 games in Nashville. The Titans have gotten a boost from Johnson lately, as the holdout RB has amassed 343 yards in his L2 games to go with 2 TD. He has been a big reason for the Titans recent success as the Titans have also out-gained their opponents on the ground in 3 of their L4 games, all amounting to wins for the Titans. This NO defense has been fairly tough on the run all season long, allowing only 114 YPG on the ground for the season overall, but they have been even better lately, holding their opponents under 100 rushing over their L3 games overall. The Titans are averaging 143 in that same span. Something has to give here today. December has been a good month for Johnson in recent years, in fact it has been his 2nd best month statistically in each of the L2 seasons, as he has totaled 979 yards and 7 TD in the month over the L3 seasons (2009-2011). But can TEN stop the passing attack of Brees? The Saints come into this one averaging 332 YPG in the air on the road so far and it actually goes up to 362 YPG when they play on grass, so this isn't necessarily your typical turf team. The Titans have been tough against the pass this season, especially at home, allowing an average of only 214 passing yards per game on their home field, but they have been pretty bad as of late, allowing an average of 260 YPG in the air over their L3. Hasselbeck was effective against the Saints last season, although it was in a 34-19 losing effort for the Seahawks in New Orleans, but he did have a 73% completion percentage and throw for 365 yards with a TD and 0 INT. In his other previous game back in 2007, he was almost as impressive, tossing 362 yards with a 60% completion percentage, 2 TD and 1 INT in that one - although again that wasn't enough as the Seahawks lost 28-17 in that one too. Still we feel the combination of Hasselbeck and Johnson to go with the Titans defense should prove to be too much in this one. Roll with the TENNESSEE TITANS to COVER the SPREAD as more than a FG UNDERDOG........
CAROLINA PANTHERS (+2.5)
It's hard to go against the Falcons in this one, but this should be another division battle between these two teams and they have primarily split their season-series matches over the last few seasons. Ryan is 1-2 ML as a starter in Carolina with his only victory coming there last season, but he has been largely unproductive against the Panthers defense on their home turf. In Carolina for his career, he is 63-for-116 for 609 yards, 2 TD and 3 INT overall. The Falcons are 5-1 ML in the L6 meetings and 6-2 ML in the L8 between these two teams. They come into this one 5-2 ML in their L7, however they have been disappointing ATS lately, going 0-3-1 in their L4 and 3-6-1 ATS over their L10. They lost to a Yates led Texans offense on the road last week, in a game their offense looked pathetic, managing to put only a measly 10 points on the board. A lot of their troubles has been due largely to their running game being almost non-existent, averaging just over 90 YPG on the ground over their L3 and they have been even worse on grass fields, averaging a meager 70 YPG on the ground on real surfaces. In fact, the Falcons have been horrible on grass fields this season, losing all 3 games and managing to score 10, 13 and 12 points in those 3 games respectively. The Panthers have been thriving at home and on grass overall, going for an average of 128 YPG on the ground at home so far in 2011 and a slightly better 130 YPG on grass, but over their L3 they have been extremely impressive on the ground, averaging over 160+ YPG in the rushing attack in that span. Roll with the CAROLINA PANTHERS as the home underdog in this contest......
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+3)
Okay, so on first glance we were thinking the Miami Dolphins in this one, but Vick is expected to be back for this one and the Eagles come into this one on a 10-day layoff since getting beat pretty handily by SEA in last Thursday night's football game. The Eagles do still have a very slim shot to win this NFC East, but they will essentially have to win out the rest of their games. Not entirely sure they are capable of doing that, but they are easily capable of picking up the W here today. The Dolphins come into this one having turned their season around completely, winning 4 of their L5, with their only loss being a 1-point defeat at the hands of the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. They have scored 20 or more points in each of those wins, hitting 30+ points in 3 of their L5 and they have been dominant on defense, holding their opponents to only 54 points in those 5 games. In fact, the Dolphins have outscored their opponents 139-54 over those 5 games. This will be a great challenge for Vick and the running game today as Miami has allowed an average of under 58 YPG on the ground defensively over their L3 and are allowing under 100 YPG to the opponents rushing attack for the season overall. The Eagles will be tested in the air and they have been proficient in the passing game lately, averaging over 280 yards in the air over their L3 - although that was with Young at the helm for the most part. But the Eagles defense will be challenged in this one as well, as the Dolphins are currently averaging over 130 YPG on the ground over their L3, and the Eagles have been allowing over 102 YPG in that same span and about 115 YPG on the ground defensively on the road this season. They come into this one on the exact opposite stretch of the Dolphins, as the Eagles have dropped 4-of-5 overall and haven't scored more than 20 points in any of those last 4 games. However they have won 2 out of 3 but only one of those games (a win) was with Vick under center. Philly has also gone 3-1 in the L4 meetings between these two teams, although they haven't squared off since 2007 and have only played 2 times in the 2000's. Still I think there is enough value to go with the EAGLES in today's game.......
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-14)
The Steelers come into this one with a chance to essentially wrap up a spot in the playoffs and with an extremely slim chance to still win division, thanks to being swept by the Ravens in their two meetings this season. The Steelers have to win out through the remainder of the games most likely and pray that the Ravens suffer a loss somewhere along the way in their remaining 4 games. However, both teams have fairly similar schedules, with perhaps the Steelers getting the tougher end of the bargain having to go against San Francisco on MNF next week. The Steelers have absolutely owned the Browns in recent years, going 14-1 ML in the L15 meetings and a perfect 7-0 at Heinz field over their L7 meetings there. They have won 4 of the L5 meetings held in Pittsburgh by at least 13 points and at least 18 points in 3 of them, including holding an average MOV of 17 points in those L5 meetings held at home. They do also come into this one 2-0 ATS and 2-0 ML in the L2 meetings, with monster blowout wins of 32 points in the last meetings (held in CLE in 2010) and 18 in the last meeting at home. In fact, last season the Steelers outscored the Browns 69-19 in sweeping the 2 meetings, with Roethlisberger putting up monster numbers, totaling 537 yards passing with 5 TD and only 1 INT. In fact the whole team seemed to be playing at their best when matched up against the lowly Browns last season as Mendenhall had 3 TD himself and the defense recorded a staggering 10 sacks and 5 INT. And Ben has actually destroyed the Browns over the L2 seasons, compiling for 1165 passing yards and completing well over 60% of his passes in that span with 7 TD and 2 INT. He has always performed well against the Browns, as in his career against them, as in his L9 games against the Browns, he has thrown for 2390 yards, with 17 TD and only 7 INT in that span. Pittsburgh has also scored at least 27 points in 7 of the L10 meetings, and if they can do the same tonight, the Browns will be hard-pressed to match scores with them - even given a 2 TD advantage. And the Steelers come into this one looking like they have certainly righted the ship, after their blowout, statement victory against CIN last week at home, 35-7, and they should be ready to do the same again tonight. They are red hot as of late, winning 3 straight overall, 7 of 8 and 9 of 11, but they have struggled ATS going 6-6 on the season overall, and they have only managed to win by more than today's spread in 3 games on the year. However, all 3 of those games were at home, with that CIN win last week, as well as a win over TENN in Week 5, 38-17, and a win there over SEA in Week 2, 24-0. The Steelers are also only 1-2 ATS when listed as double-digit favorites on the season. The Browns come in going the opposite direction after getting handled easily by the Ravens last week at home, 24-10. This team is obviously going in reverse and comes into this one 1-5 ML over their L6 games and 2-7 ML over their L9. Perhaps even more disappointing, they have gone 3-8-2 ATS in 2011, including 2-6-2 ATS over their L10. They are currently 0-1 ATS when listed as a double-digit underdog this season, losing in HOU, 30-18, as a +10.5 dog back in Week 9. The Steelers come into this one having found a groove offensively as of late, averaging nearly 117 YPG on the ground over their L3. Mendenhall and crew should have an easy go of it tonight as well, as the Browns come into this abysmal against the run all season long, but even moreso lately, allowing 176 YPG on the ground over their L3 and 151 YPG against the rush in 2011 overall. The one time this season the Steelers have out-gained their opponents by over 100 yards on the ground, was that 38-17 blowout win against TENN. Let's hope they crush the Browns in the rushing game and all indications are they should, as CLE comes into this game averaging a measly 83 YPG on the ground on the road, while the Steelers are only allowing an average of 74 YPG on the ground at home. Woodley is officially out for this game and Hillis is actually expected to play tonight for the Browns, but do you really want to bank on a guy who missed several games this season due to strep throat. I don't know what happened to Hillis, but hopefully it is officially just related to the Madden curse. If you still need more convincing, McCoy was awful against the Steelers last year - compiling his 2nd lowest QBR against an opponent with his 59 rating - tossing for 2 TD and 5 INT. He was also sacked 9 times in those 2 games. Roll with the PITTSBURGH STEELERS to COVER the monster SPREAD in this one.......
WEEK #15: (11-10-1 / YTD: 131-91-4)
A rough start to our week in the non-Sunday games as we were suckered into believing in Gabbert and the Jaguars. Wah-wah-waaaahhhhhh. Then the Cowboys killed us by 1 measly, lousy point on the Over by again refusing to score for the majority of the second half/4th quarter after jumping out to a 28-0 lead at the half. Yuck! But Sunday has been a good day so far, should have been better, but the Bengals once again blew a late cover by giving up a TD very late - but at least this time it was to a push at the -7 number instead of losing like last week.
SAN FRANCISCO 49'ERS (-3) AND OVER 38
The Niners come into this one still steaming off last week's blown victory at the Cardinals, in which the Cards came back to beat them 21-19. They should be prepared to play tonight against a Steelers team that could be without the services of Roethlisberger at QB and are definitely going to be without Harrison at LB. Pittsburgh is currently 6-0 ML in their L6 appearances on MNF, but they are also 1-4 ATS in their L5 games when listed as the road underdog. And the Steelers do come in having won 4 straight and 8 of their L9 overall, including going a perfect 3-0 ML on the road. However, they have been much more even keel going 5-5 ATS in their L10 games overall and and even worse 2-4 ATS in their 6 games away from home this season. Pittsburgh has only faced the NFC in two games this season, but they are a perfect 2-0 and outscored the Cardinals and Seahawks 56-20 in those 2 games. Their lone road game against the NFC came in that Cardinals game, in which the Steelers won 32-20 in AZ in Week 7. The Steelers have been scuffling in the passing game, going for only 203 YPG on average in their L3, but their running game has come up big in those games, going for about 130 YPG in those 3 games as well. However, they have struggled to get the run game going on the road this season, averaging a paltry 92 YPG in their 6 away from home and they will be hard-pressed to establish that success tonight against a Niners team currently allowing an average of only 59 YPG over their L3 games and 66 YPG on the ground in their home stadium. This Niners defense has been deadly against the run in recent seasons, having not allowed a 100 yard rusher against them in any of their L35 games, and holding every opponent without a rushing TD through the first 13 games of this season, becoming the first team ever to do that. Not quite sure where the Steelers are going to be able to get any type of offense going tonight, and it will be even worse if Big Ben's ankle injury gets worse and Batch is called upon tonight. Even still, the Niners are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their L8 games at home when listed as the favorite and they have gone 6-1 ML at home so far this season to go with a virtually perfect 6-0-1 ATS record in those 7 games. Their only loss on their home turf was by a FG in OT against Dallas in Week 2, but they have outscored their L2 opponents there 49-7 in their L2 home games and recorded a 26-0 home shutout over St. Louis in their L game at home 2 weeks ago. They have outscored their opponents 201-84 in their 6 home games this season. San Francisco has been money ATS all season long, going 10-2-1 ATS this season and 11-2-1 ATS in their L14 games overall. Gore will have to get the SF run game going early and he has helped the team average 100+ YPG over their L3, but they have been much more efficient on the season overall, going for 126 YPG for the season overall on the ground and an even better 133 YPG on the ground while at home. The Steelers as usual are also tough against the run themselves and have held their opponents to an average under 100 YPG for the season overall and over the L3, but on the road it is a bit of a different story and they have been torched for an average of 120 YPG on the ground when away from home. As for the Over, there hasn't been a single home game this season in which the Niners have failed to score 20+ points and have gone for 23 or more in 6 of those 7 games. The Steelers have had a couple of rough scoring games on the road this season, totaling only 13 against KC a few weeks ago, 10 against HOU way back in Week 4 and only 7 against BAL in Week 1 -- I have to think they will be able to scratch out at least 17 points tonight and perhaps hit 20+. They should pound out the first rushing TD allowed by SF in 3 seasons as we anticipate they will be specifically going to break it tonight. Might even be with a Roethlisberger run. Roll with the SAN FRANCISCO 49'ERS to COVER the FG SPREAD at home on the big stage and for this one to eek OVER the total tonight.......
OVER 52.5 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS AND MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+8)
Alright, here we go again. Have to roll with the Vikings in this one as they do expect to start Peterson for this one today and they have been proving lately that, at least offensively, they can pretty much hang with any team that comes into town. Although, few of those teams have had the offensive weapons and firepower as this Saints club does. But the Vikings come into this one having a horrendous season, losing 6 straight and 8 of their L10 games, but they have managed to put up points on the board at home this season. At home in 2011, the Vikings are an abysmal 1-5 ML but they are a much more respectable 2-3-1 ATS in those games, scoring more than 20 points or more in each contest and hitting 27+ points in 3 of their L4 games at home as well. In fact, they have gone over 32+ in 2 of those games - so the Vikings can score at home and have been doing so with ease lately. Against teams that would be considered of about the same caliber and style of play as NO (say DET and GB) the Vikings have scored 23 and 27 points against at home this season. The Vikings also come into this one having played to the Over in 4 of their L5 games overall and at a 5-2 clip in their L7, and they have done so by a rushing attack that is in top gear right now, averaging over 150+ YPG on the ground per game in their L3, and going for an average of over 160+ in their 6 games at home. New Orleans has been stingy against the rush lately, allowing only 73 YPG on the ground defensively in their L5, but they have been run over while on the road, allowing a much higher 123 YPG on the ground when away from home. On turf, they are near an even 100 YPG allowed in that category. And Ponder is coming into his own as of late himself, averaging over 225+ YPG in the air over his L3 starts and goes up against a Saints secondary that is currently allowing 330+ YPG in the air over their L3 and almost 300 YPG in the air in games played on turf. Ponder could be in line for a breakout day today if he can stay on his feet and stay on the field. The Saints are also currently 3-11 ATS in their L14 games against a team with a losing record and they have only won 1 game on the road this season by more than 5 points - as they have gone 4-3 ML and 3-4 ATS on the road this season, with their 4 wins coming by 5, 3, 3 and 13 points each. Oh yeah, the Saints are also 0-5 ML in their L5 games played at the Metrodome (I refuse to call it Mall of America Field, forgive me). Roll with the OVER in this one and also go with the MINNESOTA VIKINGS as more than a TD underdog at home.......
CAROLINA PANTHERS (+6)
Either we are way off on both of these teams again today, or the odds-makers are getting a little too generous with the spread here today. The Panthers should be prepared to play in this one after blowing last week's 23-7 halftime victory and losing to ATL. But the Panthers have scored 23 or more in each of their L4 games and 27 or more in 4 of their L5 on the road. Roll with the CAROLINA PANTHERS to COVER the SPREAD on the road today.........
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-7)
Okay so you can't blame us on this one if it doesn't come through because how in the world are we not expected to give this game out as a play today. This should be one of those proverbial "lock" games (that don't really exist mind you) with both Bradford and even the lowly Feeley out for this game, thus forcing the Rams to turn to their 3rd string QB, an even lowlier Clemens. Although looking back to just a week ago, this suddenly struggling Cinderella Bengals team lost to another team playing their 3rd string QB on their own home turf. The best part about this play though, is that the odds-makers must have known something all the rest of us didn't know, because the switch to their 3rd string QB did absolutely nothing to move the line really. And the Bengals are struggling, dropping 2 straight and 4 of their L5, but 3 of those 4 losses were against division rivals and super bowl contending powerhouses BAL and PIT and 2 of those 3 losses were on their home fields, which is even tougher to play at. And if you recall, we were on the Bengals last week and they were covering the spread and winning the game until a TD by HOU with 1 second left on the clock (I believe it literally was 1 second). They should be amped for this one and they have played better on turf this season than grass, averaging higher stats in passing (230 YPG) and rushing (112 YPG) and defensively they have been better against the run (97 YPG) but are a little worse against the pass (224 YPG). Look for Benson to actually have a huge day today against a pathetic Rams defense that is allowing 175 YPG on the ground at home and 185 YPG on the ground over their L3 overall. And the Bengals have played much better on the road when not facing either one of those previously mentioned vaunted defenses, going 5-0 ATS and 4-1 ML in their 5 other games on the road, with their only loss coming at a Tebow-less Denver in Week 2, and all of their wins coming by 7+ points or more and an average MOV of nearly 10 points. And none of those games were against the Clemens led Rams. Go with the BENGALS to COVER the SPREAD in today's game.......
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+4)
Okay so the Seahawks will be hard pressed to find any type of success against this monster Bears defense, but they are currently on an 8-1 ATS spread when playing against the NFC. And the Seahawks have been hot as of late, taking 2 straight games and winning 4 of their L5 overall. Only one of those wins in that span came away from home, but the Seattle hasn't been that bad when away from home this season. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their L4 away from home, going 2-2 ML in that span with a loss by 10 to DALL and a loss by 3 to CLE. And they are facing a Bears team in sudden disarray without Cutler under center, as they have scraped together a measly 13 points in their L2 games combined. The Bears were dominating teams at home this season, until their last game there against KC in which they lost 10-3, but prior to that, they were 5-1 ML at home - with their only loss coming to GB - and they had outscored their opponents by an average MOV of 17 PPG. But the Seahawks are currently money ATS, as they have covered for their backers in 5 of the L6 weeks and at a clip of 7-2-1 in their L10. And Jackson does have experience playing within the confines of Soldier Field from his days as a Viking, which should quell any real butterflies, and big game Pete should have this team prepared to hang in there. Take a chance with the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS to COVER this one on the road.......
UNDER 41.5 TENNESSEE TITANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Titans have failed to go over today's total in each of their L7 games, falling just short at 39-41 in 5 of those games. They haven't allowed more than 24 in any of those 7 games and have held their opponents to a combined 43 points in those 3 games. Don't expect the Colts to do anything more than any of these other teams were able to do against them. The Under is also currently 11-2 in the L13 meetings between the two teams, although 3 of the L4 have been above today's total, and those all had Manning under center for the Colts. The Manning-less Colts have struggled to put any points on the board lately, scoring 10 or less points in 5 of their L7 games overall and scoring a combined 19 total points in their L3 games at home. On turf, the both teams have struggled to score this season, with the Titans averaging 17 PPG in those games and the Colts an even worse 15 PPG in games on artificial surfaces, with both teams averaging under 300 YPG of total offense in those games. Go with the UNDER to hit in Indianapolis........
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-1) AND OVER 44
UNDER 47 WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ NEW YORK GIANTS AND NEW YORK GIANTS (-5.5)
The Redskins actually stole the win the first time these two teams met and we expect the Giants will be ready to respond today. This Giants team has found their offense in the L2 weeks, and despite going 1-1 ML, they have scored at least 35 points in each of their L2 games. Even with last week's 37-34 win over Dallas, they have lost 4 of their L5 games overall. But the Giants have owned the Redskins in recent years, going 6-1 ML in their L7 meetings and 8-2 ML in their L10 since December of 2006. They are also 6-3-1 ATS in those 10 games. They are a perfect 5-0 ML in the L5 meetings at home as well, and have gone 4-1 ATS in that span, winning all but one of those games by a TD or more. Also they have failed to score more than 41 points in 3 of their L4 meetings there and have scored a combined 42 points or less in 8 of the L9 meetings. Take the UNDER in this game and also roll with the NEW YORK GIANTS to COVER the SPREAD at home........
BUFFALO BILLS (-1.5)
The Bills have been dreadful as of late, losing 6 straight games, 7 of 8, and going 2-8 ML in their L10 after starting out the season with such high expectations. They were right there with the Lions at the beginning of the season as perhaps the Cinderella stories of this year, but have long since been bumped off the front page. But the Bills do have reason for hope today against a Dolphins team from Florida that will be forced to play in freezing temperatures today and snow flurries. With Miami's 35-8 home win about 4 weeks back, these 2 teams have split their L4 regular season meetings, and pretty much split the season series every year overall. And yes, the Bills may be scuffling right now, but 4 of their L6 losses were on the road and came against some tough teams: NYJ (2x); at Dall; at an improving SD; and at a hot MIA team. Their only other loss in that span was against a playoff-bubbling TEN squad at 7-6, so their resume doesn't look so bad in actuality. But the Bills offense has sputtered completely, scoring 11 points or less in 4 of their L6 games, and never hitting 21 in any of them. They could use this trip home where they are averaging about 26 PPG there, behind averages of 257 YPG in the air and 130 YPG on the ground. The Dolphins have been better of late, despite last weeks drubbing at Philadelphia, they have won 4 of their L6, with their only other loss in that span a 1-point heart-breaker by Dallas on Thanksgiving day. They fired their head coach this week despite their recent improvements, so it will be interesting to see how this team does in fact respond. But with the Bills on the verge of dropping 7 straight, Bush and his warm-weather friends forced to play in the freezing cold, and the imminent disarray of the Dolphins this week with a regime change, we say go with the BUFFALO BILLS to COVER the SPREAD here at home.......
DETROIT LIONS MONEY LINE (PICK) AND OVER 47.5
This one should easily go over the total as we expect both of these teams to hit at least 24 points each and this one could still end up one-sided in the end. Both teams come into this one on some massive over trends lately, with the Lions going over at a clip of 7-1-1 in their L9 games on the road and Oakland hitting for the Over at a clip of 7-3 in their L10 games at home, and also have gone over for a record of 12-3-1 in their L16 December games as well. The Lions come into this one having scored 34 in last week's 6-point win over Minnesota at home, but they have failed to hit even 20 points in 3 of their L5. On the flip side, the Raiders have combined to put 30 points on the board in their L2 games, although both were on the road, but they have scored 24 points or more in 3 of their L4 at home and in 4 of their 6 home games overall this season. They have done so by averaging 146 YPG on the ground at home on the season, but that was earlier in the season when McFadden was playing. They have struggled to get the run game going lately, going for an average of only 78 YPG on the ground over their L3, but they will be going against a Lions defense that has also allowed an average of 141 YPG on the ground in that same span. That little boy named Suh will be back for this one today though and that should spark the Lions defense, although who knows how much it will in the run game as they have allowed 136 YPG on the ground on the season overall. And maybe McFadden and the lack of run game won't be an issue for the Raiders after all, as they are 5-1 for the Over with McFadden sitting on the sidelines. The Lions should emerge from this one victorious as well, thanks to the return of Suh, and the fact that they have played well on the road all season long, going 4-2 ML and 3-2-1 ATS away from home, with their only losses to a red hot Saints team at home and a red hot Bears team in Chicago. Roll with the DETROIT LIONS to WIN this game on the MONEY LINE and for this one to go OVER the total.......
NEW YORK JETS (+3) AND OVER 44
The Jets have found their rhythm as of late, winning 3 straight games and scoring 28 points or more in each one - topping 34 points in the L2. They have also gone 6-2 ML and 5-3 ATS in their L8 overall and have gone over 24 points in each of those wins. Defense has also been key, as they have only allowed more than 24 points in 1 of their L10 games (NE) and have kept their opponents from hitting the 22-point mark in 8 of those games overall. The passing game has scuffled in recent weeks, averaging only 165+ YPG in the air over their L3, but they are rushing for nearly 133 YPG in that same span. Defensively, containing the run has been key, and NY has been huge in that department, allowing an average of only 83 YPG on the ground in their L3, although they are allowing about 136 YPG on the ground away from home. But this Eagles team has been lackluster in the running department in recent games, going for an average of only 85 in their L3, although they do go for about 145 YPG on the ground at home overall. Take the NEW YORK JETS to COVER as a FG underdog in this one and roll with the OVER in this match-up......
DENVER BRONCOS (+7)
Just go with God in this one. Again. And Tebow. Again. Perhaps we have been drinking the kool-aid for too long, but we truly feel the Broncos should at least cover the spread in this one against the mighty Patriots at home. How can you go against the Broncos and Tebow? How can you go against Tebow period? All this guy does is win football games (7-1 as a starter) and throw TD passes (11 TD) and not commit turnovers (2 INT / 0 F) and rush for big yards (517 YDS) and score rushing TD's (3) and....... Alright, I am sure you get the point by now (especially considering we just continually update the same write-up every week for them) but Tebow is legitimately the man. And currently the hot hand and you have to ride the hot hand until it burns out. Perhaps today could be the day for that as the Broncos face a Patriots team that has reverted back to championship form as of late, winning 5 straight and 8 of their L10 overall. That impressive run does include a current 3-game winning streak on the road in which they have outscored WASH, PHI and the NYJ by a combined score of 109-63. They have scored at least 34 points in each of those games and have scored 30+ points in 5 of their 6 games away from home in 2011 with all of their wins by 7 points or more, and 3 of those wins by double-digits. As usual, Brady has been shredding defenses in the air, averaging 333 YPG on the road so far. But he will be throwing against one of the better passing defenses in the league with the Broncos allowing only 200 YPG in the air at home, and a slightly worse 232 YPG in the air overall on the season. But Tebow is Tebow and the rest of the Broncos team has certainly stepped up their game around him. And once again they are the giant underdogs in this one and will have to prove to the world that they are legit. So far they have responded accordingly. We expect them to do the same today. The Broncos should be as healthy as they can get (at least by this point in the season) for this one, so once again everything appears to be sided towards the Broncos. Tebow is now 2-1 ML and 1-1-1 ATS his 2 home starts this season. WWJD? He would take the BRONCOS to COVER the SPREAD as the home underdogs in this one.......
DALLAS COWBOYS (-7) AND OVER 47.5
Not quite sure how this line sits where it currently sits, but we'll take our chances with the Cowboys after TB was annihilated by an awful Jacksonville team last week, 41-14. The Bucs also come into this one in the midst of a monumental disappointment of a season as expectations were high for them coming into 2011, but they have dropped 7 straight and have gone 2-8 ML in their L10 overall. They are also 2-8 ATS in those 10 games, but they have gone a slightly better 2-6 ATS when listed as the underdog. They have also dropped 3 straight at home, not winning on their home turf since mid-October against NO in a game we cashed in twice on. They have also failed to reach 20 points in any of those 3 games while allowing 37 or more in each of their L2 there to Carolina and Houston. Dallas has been extremely disappointing on the road this season as well, dropping 3 out of 4 to AZ, PHI and NE and they have gone 2-4 ML away from home overall. They haven't won by more than 3 points in any game on the road so far this season either. And with exception of a blowout loss at PHI, all of their 5 other road games have been decided by 6 points or less. Despite the recent scuffles of this Dallas team, they should be ready to go tonight because of that. They suffered another heart-breaker last week with the Giants pulling off the comeback in the final minutes capped off by another failure on the FG unit, having the tying FG blocked in the final seconds. That came after another FG blunder in which Garrett iced his own kicker in AZ the week before. But Dallas should come out guns blazing tonight against a TB defense that has allowed 35 or more points in 4 of their L5 overall. Go with the DALLAS COWBOYS to COVER the TD SPREAD tonight and for this one to go OVER the total........
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+13.5) AND UNDER 42.5
Okay so call us suckers for falling for the +2.5 point raise in the spread for the Jaguars in tonight's game, but I don't know how we could not recommend making a play on a team that scored 41 points last week and has played extremely tough on the road all season long. The Jags come into this one, fresh off Sunday's 41-14 rout of an abysmal TB team in which they reeled off 41 straight points after being down 14-0 in the 1st quarter. And although the Jags are an extremely disappointing 1-5 ML on the road in 2011, they are 2-3-1 ATS in those 6 games and have only lost on the road by more than 10 points in only one game all season - and that was back in Week 2 when they were blown out by the Jets in NY, 32-3. In their other 5 road games, they have lost at CLE by 4, won at IND, lost at HOU by 10, lost at PIT by 4 and lost at CAR by 6. They are also currently 2-0-1 ATS when the spread is listed at +10 or more. Although this Jaguars team has a Christmas wish list full of injured players either doubtful or officially listed as out for tonight's game, but the success of Jacksonville will rest largely on a defense that has allowed an average of 17.7 PPG against them on the road. Jacksonville has been tough against the pass in their L5, allowing only 197 YPG on average in their L3 games, but they have been even tougher on the road in that same capacity, allowing an average of only 173 YPG in the air when not playing on their home turf. Matty Ice is currently 21-0 as a starter for the Falcons when he has a QBR over 100. He has led an efficient passing attack lately, throwing for an average of 273 YPG in the air over his L3 games, but he has been slightly less effective at home in 2011, tossing for an average of 233 YPG. But he should be helped by a ground attack that is averaging 124 YPG at home this season, although has only mustered a disappointing 82 YPG over their L3. They should have no problem getting Turner going tonight, as the Jags have allowed an average of 130 YPG in the rushing attack away from home this season, and a slightly better 112 YPG over their L3. Atlanta hasn't necessarily been blowing people out this season however, and have only covered today's spread in 2 of their games this season, winning by 24 at IND and 14 at home versus CAR. Other than that, they have not won another game by more than 10 points, and their average MOV is under 9 PPG in the dome. And the Falcons have scored 24 points or less in each of their L3 games at home and they will be hard-pressed to top that total tonight as they face a Jacksonville defense that has only allowed 3 opponents all season long to put more than 24 points on the board against them, including only allowing the Jets to be the only team to score more than 21 points against them on the road. The Jaguars are a perfect 6-0 for the Under in road games this season and have only totaled as high as 38 points only 1 time in those 6 games. Go with the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS to COVER the 2 TD SPREAD in this one and for this one to finish UNDER tonight's total.........
WEEK #16: (1-0 / YTD: 132-91-4)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+7)
The Colts could end up pulling off the upset here again tonight on their home turf and facing a Texans team that lost last week against Carolina, 28-13, and they haven't won any of their L4 games by more than 7 points. Houston has never won in Indianapolis, going 0-9 ML in their history while playing against the Colts in IND. They have gone 4-0 ML against their divisional opponents in the AFC South and have also gone 4-0 ATS in their L4 games away from home. Before the loss last week to Carolina, the Texans had won 7 in a row and had also gone 6-0-1 ATS in those 7 games. They are also 6-2-1 ATS when listed as the favorite for the season and although they are a respectable 5-2 ML when away from home this season, they have also gone 3-0 ATS when listed as the favorite on the road. And the Colts are coming in this one off of the huge victory over TEN last game, pulling off their first win of the season with a 27-13 victory that was sealed by a pick six TD. They have managed to cover the spread in each of their L3 games and they have gone 5-4 ATS in all games listed as an underdog of +6.5 or higher. They have been a disappointing 2-5 ATS at home this seasons as well, but they are also 2-1 ATS there when they are given at least +6.5 points. Defensively, Indianapolis has struggled to contain the passing game, allowing an average of 275 YPG in the air over their L3, but they face the 3rd string QB Yates once again in tonight's match-up, and he has struggled to produce about 215 YPG in the air over their L3 games as well. But the biggest match-up will be in the running game, where Houston averages over 150 YPG both for the season overall and within their L3 games. This is where Indy's defense is going to earn their money tonight, and they have been good at stopping the run lately, allowing only 95 YPG on the ground over their L3. The Colts have also gone 7-1-1 ATS in their L9 Thursday night games, but those were pretty much with you know who under the center. Roll with the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS to COVER the SPREAD as the home underdog here........